Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Scottish Open

2 years ago by Byron Lindeque

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Denny McCarthy's putter and biggest weapon mailed it in on Sunday, allowing the Postman, J.T. Poston to go wire-to-wire for his second career win. An incredible display of composure at the top of the leaderboard for four straight days is what allowed J.T.'s exceptionally well-rounded game to run like a Deere.

It was the weakest field in golf but the atmosphere on the grounds was still very exciting and a more deserving victor could not have been crowned. As the fourth of July spilled into a new week and quarter end in my accounting world engulfed most of my Tuesday, we are a little behind schedule and as a result this particular article is going to be short and sweet, like Cam Smith's putting stroke (hint hint).

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Renaissance Club, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,237, Greens: Fescue, Designer: Tom Doak

With this event taking place across the pond, we have limited strokes gained statistics and have to get creative in dissecting what stats will play a large roll in success here. The below 25 golfers have the best course history at this venue and the top row of numbers is the average power ranking for each major stat category. It is apparent that distance, birdie or better percentage, and par 5 scoring are the three stat categories that produced the highest average power ranking, making them a significant factor in our model this week.

Below are the settings for the model:

We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 62% 2022 stats and 38% 2021 stats.
Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (70%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (10%).

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Cameron Smith ($4.09 @ +3000 on BetRivers)

On a course where off the tee mishaps are seemingly punished much less than usual, you play Cameron Smith. The rest of his game is simply exceptional and is hopefully the perfect fit for the renaissance club, where he can lean on his immaculate iron play, world class short game, and best in show Par 5 scoring AND birdie or better percentage. Smith ranks first in two of the three most important skill sets needed around this course with the third skill (distance) inside the top half of the field, which cannot be said about his Off The Tee game. Smith checks a lot of boxes and can hopefully escape bad drives more than usual, making him a phenomenal play at 30-1 with hopes that he can pick up his third win of the year.

Viktor Hovland ($3.45 @ +3500 on Ceasars)

Nothing about Viktor Hovland's recent form screams that he will contend this week and the books tend agree, pricing the Norwegian star at above 30-1 across the market. Hovland's baseline is what we like most about him here as he has distance off the tee, fantastic iron play, and is capable of making a multitude of birdies when his game is firing. Hovland is also reasonably successful on the par 5s which is where a decent chunk of the scoring happens. When it comes to his around the green game, we are choosing to ignore the bloodbath of red boxes that are glaring at us from the screenshot above as this is a links course and hopefully, he has the opportunity to putt a lot more from off the green than usual.

Cameron Young ($2.05 @ +4000 on FanDuel)

I used the US Open article as the template for this week and the final three golfers on our outright card were all picks for the US Open at Brookline. Cameron Young is 60-1 to win the Scottish Open, an event that rewards golfers with desirable driving distance and Cameron Young leads this field in that very department. After a magnificent run of three consecutive top-3 finishes at RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Championship, and the PGA Championship, the wheels fell off in epic fashion at the Memorial, ironically an event he will want to forget. However, after a much-needed break, Young will play in his first European Tour event and hopefully brings back his sensational ball striking and booming drives that kept him at the top of the leaderboard for a full month not too long ago.

Max Homa ($2.05 @ +6000 on DraftKings)

Ranked 19th in the world, with two wins on the season, Max Homa is disrespectfully slapped with a 60-1 price tag which we are hoping to take absolute advantage of. Homa's worst finish in his last seven non-major starts is T23. He gained on approach and off the tee in every single one of those starts, with a win at the Wells Fargo rewarding his now world-class ball striking. He has also found an abundance of distance this calendar year which will be on full display at the renaissance club this week. Odds this long should not be next to Homa's name and hopefully he can make DraftKings regret that decision.

Keegan Bradley ($1.53 @ +6600 on BetRivers)

Keegan Bradley enters the week ranked as the fifth best putter in the field over the last two-dozen rounds. In case you were unaware of the caliber of this field, we have 16 of the top-20 golfers in the world teeing it up this week and I repeat, Keegan Bradley is fifth in strokes gained putting. As luck would have it, Bradley's approach play has spiked to scintillating levels in his last two starts, while his putter, although still gaining strokes, cooled off a little. IF he can continue to strike his irons with his patented Bradley-Brilliance and spike with his putter like he has in four of his last nine regular starts, Keegan has the distance AND accuracy off the tee to power his way to victory for the first time since 2018.

First-Round Leaders

There appears to be a sizeable weather advantage for those teeing it up on Thursday morning, with winds doubling in strength in the afternoon.

Cam Smith, Viktor Hovland, and Keegan Bradley are all in the AM wave this Thursday which means that Max Homa and Cameron Young will not make the FRL card this week.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $11.50 on five guys to net $110 or more.

Cameron Smith ($2.98 @ +4000 on DraftKings)

Keegan Bradley ($1.82 @ +6600 on PointsBet)

Viktor Hovland ($2.21 @ +5000 on PointsBet)

Will Zalatoris ($2.50 @ +4800 on FanDuel)

Will Zalatoris does his best putting early in the tournament and has the length and ball striking ability to lead round one after his morning tee time.

Joaquin Nieman ($2 @ +6000 on FanDuel)

Joaquin Nieman has gained more than 4.8 strokes in round one, five times in his 11 starts this year. Two of those starts he gained EIGHT and 5.4 strokes on the field which is typically enough to contend for first round leader honors.

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Placings

BetMGM is usually our book of choice for most of these bets as they pay ties in full (black and gold odds boxes). Hideki and Harold do not have my trust and we will not be including them on our card.

Cameron Smith (T20: $8.75 @ +135 on BetMGM)

Sam Burns (T20: $8.75 @ +135 on BetMGM)

Viktor Hovland (T20: $8.75 @ +175 on BetMGM)

Max Homa (T20: $8.75 @ +240 on BetMGM)

Maverick McNealy (T40: $8.75 @ +190 on FanDuel)

Jason Kokrak (T40: $8.75 @ +170 on FanDuel)

Cameron Tringale (T40: $8.75 @ +190 on FanDuel)

Sebatian Munoz (T40: $8.75 @ +160 on FanDuel)

The Farewell Fiver

Keegan Bradley (T10: $5 @ +500 on BetMGM)

The top 20 market was a little stingy with their pricing and with Keegan's current state of his game, we feel that a top-10 in windy conditions will be a fun watch at +500. He is just playing too well right now to not have any exposure to him on the placing market.

And as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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