RADIO
The middle of August signals a turn into the fantasy season's stretch run! Are you and your rotation ready?
Last week, we looked at arms who moved at the deadline, and this week, we'll turn back to some fun leaderboards (with stats since July 1st) going into Tuesday. Let's get to it with the latest edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues. Injured players are left off of this iteration. Let's move along with my top-101 SP for the rest of 2022!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
Stat Leaders (July 1-August 8) -- SIERA:
| Rank | Name | SIERA |
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | 1.01 |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 1.99 |
| 3 | Spencer Strider | 2.23 |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | 2.59 |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | 2.60 |
| 6 | Braxton Garrett | 2.71 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 2.73 |
| 8 | Robbie Ray | 2.74 |
| 9 | Yu Darvish | 2.77 |
| 10 | George Kirby | 2.77 |
I try to be reasonable with minimum inning cutoffs but deGrom is actually that good. You’d expect to find most of these arms here aside from Garrett and perhaps Kirby. Put some respect on their names!
CSW:
| Rank | Name | CSW% |
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | 37.00% |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 36.00% |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | 33.90% |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | 33.60% |
| 5 | Shane McClanahan | 33.10% |
| 6 | Braxton Garrett | 33.00% |
| 7 | Brandon Woodruff | 32.70% |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | 32.40% |
| 9 | Aaron Ashby | 32.30% |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | 32.20% |
No surprise to see carryovers from the previous list as a healthy CSW rate provides fuel for SIERA. This eases any pain for McClanahan backers who ctrl+F his name in any SP list, though. A few of these guys are living in the zone a bit too much, especially Ashby, but the talent is undeniable for these studs.
Fangraphs Dollars Earned:
| Rank | Name | Dollars |
| 1 | Max Scherzer | $15.70 |
| 2 | Triston McKenzie | $12.70 |
| 3 | Spencer Strider | $12.60 |
| 4 | Max Fried | $12.60 |
| 5 | Justin Verlander | $12.50 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodon | $11.70 |
| 7 | Brandon Woodruff | $10.70 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | $10.40 |
| 9 | George Kirby | $10.40 |
| t-10 | Sandy Alcantara | $10.10 |
| t-10 | Cole Irvin | $10.10 |
Hey, value doesn’t only come from whiffs and SIERA isn’t a category in most fantasy leagues so let’s just check the wallet. This is why Scherzer deserves the No. 1 spot, while McKenzie has tossed four scoreless quality starts in seven outings since July began. Irvin isn’t an overpowering arm but he’s attacking the zone well and hasn’t allowed more than two earned in a start since June 29th.
BABIP (highest):
| Rank | Name | BABIP |
| 1 | Patrick Corbin | 0.446 |
| 2 | JT Brubaker | 0.442 |
| 3 | Patrick Sandoval | 0.422 |
| 4 | Nick Pivetta | 0.419 |
| 5 | Frankie Montas | 0.400 |
| 6 | Daniel Lynch | 0.390 |
| 7 | Nick Lodolo | 0.388 |
| 8 | Sean Manaea | 0.376 |
| 9 | Kevin Gausman | 0.372 |
| 10 | Robbie Ray | 0.361 |
Corbin needs to get demoted to the bullpen out of mercy, or maybe into a pitching coach role. To be fair, Corbin is backed by the worst defense in terms of Defensive Runs Saved at -44. Most of these pitchers boast the strikeouts to wiggle out of bad-luck jams. Gausman allows me to raise an interesting point that the Blue Jays are tied for the third-most DRS (48) and sixth-best Outs Above Average mark (15) while posting the fourth-worst UZR (-17.1) in the bigs.
BABIP (lowest):
| Rank | Name | BABIP |
| 1 | Jesus Luzardo | 0.129 |
| 2 | Trevor Williams | 0.160 |
| 3 | Kyle Gibson | 0.184 |
| 4 | Jose Urquidy | 0.186 |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | 0.188 |
| 6 | Jameson Taillon | 0.194 |
| 7 | Cole Irvin | 0.200 |
| 8 | Tyler Mahle | 0.208 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | 0.218 |
| 10 | Chris Flexen | 0.220 |
Some smaller samples here but it’s always good to keep this in mind. All BABIP is not created equal but it is generally untenable to hold anything at the extremes of the spectrum. And also remember that home runs don't factor into BABIP. As I finish this piece up tonight, I've seen Urquidy surrender three home runs but his BABIP on the night was just .154, and he had only given up two home runs in his last five starts combined, but he still got the win! Good or bad luck, you decide.
Top-101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.
EV = Earned Value via Fangraphs (Last 30 Days), $ = My projected dollar value (think auction), PV = Previous $ Value
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | PV | Trend | Notes |
| 2 | 1 | Max Scherzer | 1 | $15.70 | 45 | 42 | 3.0 ▲ | Incredible month, consistent as heck |
| 3 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 2 | $4.10 | 44 | 42 | 2.0 ▲ | Re-injury risk all that remains |
| 1 | 1 | Sandy Alcantara | 3 | $10.10 | 43 | 42 | 1.0 ▲ | Modest Ks only blemish |
| -3 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 4 | $7.40 | 43 | 44.5 | -1.5 ▼ | Still great but rising walks |
| -3 | 1 | Shane McClanahan | 5 | $7.50 | 43 | 43 | 0.0 ▬ | Also still great, just not as great as others |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Verlander | 6 | $12.50 | 42 | 40 | 2.0 ▲ | Will innings be managed ahead of playoffs |
| -1 | 2 | Gerrit Cole | 7 | $4.90 | 42 | 42 | 0.0 ▬ | Few mistake pitches, but all being punished |
| 1 | 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 8 | $8.90 | 40 | 38 | 2.0 ▲ | 35% K-BB rate since July 1 is insane |
| -1 | 2 | Zack Wheeler | 9 | $7.00 | 39 | 39 | 0.0 ▬ | Steady SP1, reliable |
| 0 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 10 | $2.90 | 38 | 38 | 0.0 ▬ | Recent bumps but can't slide much |
| 0 | 2 | Carlos Rodon | 11 | $11.70 | 37 | 37 | 0.0 ▬ | Like him staying in SF, K's streaming in |
| 0 | 2 | Brandon Woodruff | 12 | $10.70 | 36 | 36 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 13 | $10.40 | 33 | 31 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 3 | Max Fried | 14 | $12.60 | 32 | 32 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 15 | $8.30 | 31 | 28.5 | 2.5 ▲ | Unreal run prevention given ~10% BB% |
| -1 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 16 | $2.60 | 29.5 | 30 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -1 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 17 | $6.30 | 29 | 30 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 2 | 3 | Julio Urias | 18 | $7.00 | 27.5 | 26.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 3 | Yu Darvish | 19 | $6.90 | 26 | 24.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 3 | Shane Bieber | 20 | $4.70 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 3 | Spencer Strider | 21 | $12.60 | 24 | 22 | 2.0 ▲ | 1 of 3 with >40% K rate since July 1 |
| 3 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 22 | $6.20 | 23 | 21 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 4 | Nestor Cortes | 23 | $5.30 | 22 | 21.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -5 | 4 | Logan Webb | 24 | $4.80 | 22 | 27.5 | -5.5 ▼ | Strikeouts back down, ratios can't outweigh it |
| 2 | 4 | Tony Gonsolin | 25 | $4.00 | 19 | 18 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | 26 | $7.40 | 19 | 18 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 4 | Robbie Ray | 27 | $2.50 | 18.5 | 18 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 4 | Cristian Javier | 28 | $2.50 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 5 | Freddy Peralta | 29 | $0.60 | 17 | 17.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Shake that rust off |
| 1 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 30 | $5.30 | 16.5 | 16 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Wright | 31 | ($1.50) | 16 | 16 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 5 | Frankie Montas | 32 | ($1.50) | 15.5 | 16 | -0.5 ▼ | Awful 1st NYY start but STL is good! |
| 1 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 33 | $6.40 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 5 | Luis Garcia | 34 | $4.20 | 14 | 14 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 6 | Pablo Lopez | 35 | $3.30 | 13.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 3 | 6 | Andrew Heaney | 36 | $3.40 | 13 | 13 | 0.0 ▬ | LAD likely saving bullets for playoffs |
| 4 | 6 | Triston McKenzie | 37 | $12.70 | 13 | 12 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 6 | Nathan Eovaldi | 38 | $2.10 | 12.5 | 13 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -1 | 6 | Logan Gilbert | 39 | $1.00 | 12.5 | 13 | -0.5 ▼ | Harsh to judge NYY matchups heavily |
| 0 | 6 | Lucas Giolito | 40 | $5.80 | 12 | 12.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 1 | 6 | Zac Gallen | 41 | $6.80 | 12 | 12 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 42 | $4.30 | 12 | 10 | 2.0 ▲ | Love seeing strong control right off IL |
| 3 | 6 | Tyler Anderson | 43 | $8.20 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 44 | $1.90 | 11.5 | 12 | -0.5 ▼ | Busch friendlier than Yankee Stadium |
| -1 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 45 | $1.60 | 10.5 | 11 | -0.5 ▼ | Crooked 10 ER game skews ERA hard |
| -1 | 6 | Jose Berrios | 46 | $3.60 | 10.5 | 11 | -0.5 ▼ | Can't trust him, can't quite drop him |
| 1 | 6 | Tyler Mahle | 47 | ($0.80) | 10.5 | 10 | 0.5 ▲ | Looks to thrive away from GABP |
| 7 | 6 | Lance Lynn | 48 | $2.10 | 10 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Control way up of late, trust back |
| 2 | 6 | Alex Wood | 49 | $6.40 | 10 | 9 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 6 | Mike Clevinger | 50 | $2.50 | 9.5 | 9 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 10 | 6 | George Kirby | 51 | $10.40 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 ▲ | Excellent control makes great foundation |
| 11 | 6 | Reid Detmers | 52 | $9.30 | 9 | 7.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Refined arsenal keeps on succeeding |
| 1 | 6 | Jose Urquidy | 53 | $8.20 | 9 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 8 | 6 | Alex Cobb | 54 | $9.90 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Luck turning, schedule been rough |
| -5 | 7 | Nick Lodolo | 55 | $2.50 | 8 | 9 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 7 | Sonny Gray | 56 | $1.70 | 8 | 8 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 57 | $6.60 | 8 | 7.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -9 | 7 | Sean Manaea | 58 | ($1.20) | 7.5 | 10 | -2.5 ▼ | Sharp fade, command has evaporated |
| -6 | 7 | Taijuan Walker | 59 | $0.20 | 7.5 | 8.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -3 | 7 | Miles Mikolas | 60 | $2.40 | 7 | 8 | -1.0 ▼ | I'm forgiving about Coors but WOOF |
| 3 | 7 | Tarik Skubal | 61 | $4.80 | 7 | 7 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 7 | 7 | Braxton Garrett | 62 | $7.60 | 6.5 | 6 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 7 | Martin Perez | 63 | $2.10 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 7 | Adam Wainwright | 64 | $1.50 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 6 | 7 | Merrill Kelly | 65 | $9.80 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Some luck but locating very well |
| N/A | 7 | Edward Cabrera | 66 | $1.60 | 6 | N/A | N/A | Threw 20-pitch bullpen July 5 |
| 1 | 7 | Blake Snell | 67 | $9.30 | 6 | 6 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 68 | $5.00 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -11 | 8 | Patrick Sandoval | 69 | $6.30 | 5.5 | 8 | -2.5 ▼ | Raw stuff but lacks command, polish |
| -4 | 8 | Aaron Ashby | 70 | $1.30 | 5.5 | 7 | -1.5 ▼ | Ditto |
| 1 | 8 | Keegan Thompson | 71 | $2.20 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 8 | Kutter Crawford | 72 | $7.00 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 9 | 8 | Jose Quintana | 73 | $7.20 | 4.5 | 2 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 8 | Brady Singer | 74 | $8.40 | 4 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 8 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 75 | $5.50 | 3.5 | 2 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| N/A | 9 | Jose Suarez | 76 | $2.50 | 3.5 | N/A | N/A | More sliders, a new changeup = success |
| -18 | 9 | Michael Kopech | 77 | ($3.40) | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 ▼ | |
| -5 | 9 | Nick Pivetta | 78 | ($1.60) | 3 | 4 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -2 | 9 | Noah Syndergaard | 79 | $1.70 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -6 | 9 | Josiah Gray | 80 | ($4.60) | 3 | 4 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -2 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 81 | ($1.90) | 2.5 | 3 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 9 | Drew Rasmussen | 82 | $6.50 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 9 | Eric Lauer | 83 | $2.90 | 2.5 | 2 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 9 | Jeffrey Springs | 84 | $1.90 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 9 | Madison Bumgarner | 85 | $2.40 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 10 | Johnny Cueto | 86 | $5.80 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 10 | Corey Kluber | 87 | $8.10 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 88 | ($0.10) | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 10 | 10 | Spenser Watkins | 89 | $9.00 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 10 | Justin Steele | 90 | $5.20 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 10 | Mitch Keller | 91 | $5.00 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 10 | Jake Odorizzi | 92 | $4.30 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 10 | Jakob Junis | 93 | $2.60 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 6 | 10 | Graham Ashcraft | 94 | $4.40 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -7 | 10 | Paul Blackburn | 95 | ($2.00) | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -5 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 96 | $1.30 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -4 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 97 | $0.50 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 10 | Brad Keller | 98 | $3.20 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 10 | Domingo German | 99 | ($0.60) | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 10 | Jordan Lyles | 100 | $3.50 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 10 | Kris Bubic | 101 | $2.60 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
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