RADIO
Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us and it brings a relatively full schedule for Sunday’s action which means lots of chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
This is the first official bye week on the schedule, so the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are off this week. Oh, and various Covid-19 positive tests have moved Denver and New England to Monday evening and Buffalo at Tennessee to Tuesday night. These are choppy waters to navigate but the league is managing to keep just enough water out of the boat, for now.
So, aside from scheduling quirks, it is worth noting that offensive numbers are up this season. Overall, teams are gaining 5.7 yards per play, with 6.6 net yards per pass and 4.4 yards per carry. Last season, it was 5.5 yards per play with 6.3 yards per pass and 4.3 yards per carry. In 2019, 36.0% of drives ended with an offensive score. In 2020, it’s 42.0%.
The game is opening up and that means more crooked numbers.
Here are some Star Shootout angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL games on Monkey Knife Fight:
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 307.5 PASSING YARDS
As great as Mahomes is, this is a huge number, one that he has surpassed once in four games this season. Mahomes is averaging 283.5 passing yards per game and takes on a Raiders squad that is allowing 250.3 passing yards per game. While the Raiders are allowing 7.3 net passing yards per attempt there is a reasonable chance that the Chiefs will have the lead and Mahomes won’t have to chuck it a lot in order to keep that lead.
Matt Ryan LESS THAN 299.5 PASSING YARDS
Another large number to cover. Although Matty Ice has passed for 311.5 yards per game this season, the Carolina Panthers have surrendered 227 passing yards per game and 6.1 net yards per attempt, both of which are better than average.
Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 297.5 PASSING YARDS
Does Houston’s coaching change from Bill O’Brien to Romeo Crennel make the passing game more prolific? Watson threw for a season-high 300 yards last week and goes up against a Jacksonville team that allows 8.0 net passing yards per attempt while surrendering 261 passing yards per game.
Teddy Bridgewater MORE THAN 294.5 PASSING YARDS
While Bridgewater is looking comfortable in the Panthers offense, the reason for this lofty total is largely because he’s facing an Atlanta defense that has been terrible defensively. Bridgewater is averaging 286.8 passing yards per game but has thrown for more than 295 just once in his first four starts with the Panthers. He is going against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 341.5 passing yards per game (second highest in the league) and 7.8 net yards per pass attempt (fifth-highest rate in the league).
Josh Jacobs LESS THAN 79.5 RUSHING YARDS
In the Raiders’ two wins this season, Jacobs is averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game. In their two losses, that average dips to 59.5 rushing yards per game. So, who is on the Raiders’ schedule this week? A road game (okay) at…Kansas City (gulp). That could be a tough one.
Terry McLaurin LESS THAN 78.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Washington wide receiver has been on a tear, accruing 326 receiving yards in the past three games. Washington is shifting to quarterback Kyle Allen, which isn’t ideal, and they face a Rams Defense that is one of the best against the pass this season, allowing just 229.8 passing yards per game and 5.6 net passing yards per attempt. With a backup quarterback of questionable quality stepping into the lineup against that defense, it could be difficult for McLaurin to get loose.
RAPID FIRE
James Conner +7.5 rushing yards vs. James Robinson
Robinson, the undrafted rookie out of Illinois State, has been a wonderful find for the Jaguars and is averaging 71.3 rushing yards per game through the first four weeks. Conner is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games and his season average is 74.7 rushing yards per game, due to his atypical Week One performance (nine yards on six carries). Conner does face a Philadelphia Eagles Defense that should be better against the run than the Houston Texans Defense going against Robinson but not by enough to like Robinson by more than seven yards.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Dak Prescott MORE THAN 319.5 PASSING YARDS
The question isn’t so much whether the Cowboys are capable of passing for at least 320 yards, because Prescott has thrown for at least 450 yards in three straight games, but it’s a matter of whether they will need throw that much. Facing the winless Giants, if the Cowboys get out to a comfortable lead that would reduce their need to throw. Expect him to throw under 450 this week, but 320-plus is still possible.
Jimmy Garoppolo MORE THAN 272.5 PASSING YARDS
Coming back from a high ankle sprain, Jimmy G threw for 248.6 yards per game last season and 259 yards in the season opener before getting hurt midway through Week 2. It’s not an easy under, though, because the 49ers are taking on a Miami Dolphins team that has allowed 285 passing yards per game and a league-high 8.2 net yards per pass attempt.
Ezekiel Elliott LESS THAN 91.5 RUSHING YARDS
It’s been a disappointing season so far for Zeke, averaging 68.3 rushing yards per game, and while the Giants aren’t good, they aren’t bad against the run, allowing 3.6 yards per carry.
RAPID FIRE
DeVante Parker +0.5 receptions vs. Odell Beckham
Parker, the Dolphins wideout, is averaging six catches per game, compared to four per game for Beckham, and both are facing top-tier pass defenses – Parker and the Dolphins go against the San Francisco 49ers (5.3 net yards per pass attempt) while Beckham and the Browns face the Indianapolis Colts (5.0 net yards per pass attempt).
George Kittle -0.5 receptions vs. Amari Cooper
Last week, Kittle caught all 15 passes sent in his direction and, this week, goes against a Dolphins Defense that has struggled against the pass. Cooper caught a dozen passes last week and is averaging 9.3 receptions per game this season but faces a Giants Defense that has been competent against the pass (221.5 passing yards per game, 6.3 net yards per pass attempt).
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