RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Brooks Koepka took down the Waste Management Open with a dramatic come from behind victory over the likes of Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth. While the win showed why the American is a force anytime he gets himself into contention, some of the responsibility has to be placed on the two aforementioned golfers that crumbled to the pressure during their disastrous Sunday rounds. There was an interesting tweet from @DataGolf that explained how their system gave Koepka zero expected wins after putting in his final round 65, which shows just how poorly the top of the board disintegrated down the stretch.
From an article perspective, it would have been a much better finish if Schauffele was able to get the job done, but we did connect on some deep calls like James Hahn for those that were looking for a longshot in the $6,000 range. Overall, it was a marginal week when we take all things into account, but I am excited to get going once again at Pebble Beach!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Pebble Beach
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Pebble Beach Golf Links
6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa
We get a vastly improved experience from a fan perspective over what we typically receive at Pebble Beach. The long, drawn-out rounds with amateurs will be nice to remove from a viewing aspect, and our week becomes a little easier both pre-tournament and mid-tournament with the elimination of Monterey Peninsula - one of the two tracks at the property that doesn't have StatTracker available. Golfers will still be forced to split their opening two days at Pebble Beach and Spyglass - the latter being the other section without statistical tracking, but we continue with the positive trends by drawing a 36-hole cut over the dreaded 54-hole alternative.
I always find this tournament interesting for a few reasons. Pebble Beach's layout is extremely short for a Par-72, measuring in at just above 6,800 yards, but it is not as if everything presents a green light to fire. Most drives off the tee will require players to club down for a lay-up, and scores do have a chance to balloon quickly if any of the coastal winds hit at the wrong time. Having three rounds at Pebble instead of the usual two might cause an extra day of havoc, but that is something we can marginally account for with our models.
DFS players and bettors should try to place some importance on golfers that can handle their own in blustery conditions, but the essence of what we are really trying to find comes down to short-to-mid iron play between roughly 100-150 yards. Par-fives and longer irons will also play a factor for those trying to find more comfortable birdie spots, but the short par-fours will be equally imperative to attack when possible. Pebble Beach has some of the smallest greens on tour, so around the green numbers will play a factor, which also emphasizes players that hit a high percentage of greens in regulation.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Pebble Beach | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 267 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 72% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 56% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.50 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 4/1 and is followed by Patrick Cantlay at 10/1, Daniel Berger at 18/1 and Paul Casey at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Weighted Par-Five BOB Percentage 17.5%
- Weighted Par-Four 17.5%
- Proximity 100-150 Yards 15%
- GIR Percentage 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Around The Greens 10%
- Strokes Gained Total In Moderate To Severe Wind 10%
- Weighted Par-Three 10%
- Poa Putting L100 7.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are three players this week priced above $10,000:
Dustin Johnson ($12,000)
How's $12,000 for a DraftKings price tag on Dustin Johnson? It is not often we see a golfer creep into this range for DFS contests, but how can you argue the number when looking at his current form and history at Pebble Beach? Gamers will need to decide how they want to handle the situation from a roster construction standpoint, but the only real argument that I can come up with for fading Johnson is when looking at the substantial ownership that he will bring to the table. Proper game theory points to looking elsewhere, but it is difficult to predict an outlook where the American torches lineups to the ground. He MIGHT not win and entirely pay off the salary, but his price tag is still doable if you believe you can build a proper lineup around him.
*** Dustin Johnson has withdrawn from the tournament
Patrick Cantlay ($11,300)
DraftKings is tying our hands with these prices. Patrick Cantlay has steadily improved with each start at Pebble Beach, and the next step in his maturation process does feel like an inevitable top-10 performance at the venue. A victory isn't out of the question for the explosive American, and it is going to be hard to find a natural fade from anyone that is over $10,000 this week. Cantlay is probably a little overpriced in the grand scheme of things, but we are nitpicking over a few hundred dollars. Nobody will be shocked to see the 28-year-old leave the coastal track victorious.
Paul Casey ($10,400)
We are early on Monday when I write this, but Paul Casey will almost certainly be the lowest owned player of someone not named Rickie Fowler in the $9,000 and above section. Trust me, I get the lack of appeal the Englishman brings to the table when it comes to his small win equity, but this board is wide open once we bypass Dustin Johnson up top. Like it or not, Casey should be above $10,000 on DraftKings, and his three straight top-12 performances worldwide is an encouraging statistic for a player that has finished inside the top-eight here in two of his last three attempts. Many pundits might suggest that Casey is running on fumes when you look at this being his fourth straight start in varying locations, but the year is too fresh for me to use that as an excuse.
Daniel Berger ($10,100)
Beware the golfer off of a missed cut. We have seen the past two winners on tour (Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka) take down their titles after missing the previous weekend, and Daniel Berger draws a great bounce-back opportunity here in California. Berger provided a fifth-place showing at Pebble Beach in 2020 and leads the field with 22 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better. His missed cut in Arizona was more flukey than anything else, and we should get a performance that mimics closer to his 11 straight top-35s than that of an aberrational outlier. Gamers looking for a contrarian approach could do a lot worse than starting builds with Berger/Casey and building down from there.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Jason Day ($9,500)
Last Friday, I pointed out on Twitter if we reconstructed the Waste Management leaderboard to feature two-year baseline stats instead of the actual performances we got on the greens that Jason Day should have been in 13th place heading into the weekend. Unfortunately, a missed cut instead transpired after the Aussie lost a staggering 5.24 shots with his flat stick, but the hope is there from him to get back on track on his preferred Poa surface. Day ranks 10th this season in proximity between 100-125 yards - a vast improvement from his 2020 totals that placed him 166th in the world.
Francesco Molinari ($9,300)
I think Francesco Molinari is more or less back, but I do have one small concern for him when dealing with the specific test he faces at Pebble. We saw the Italian golfer come 16th at this venue in the 2019 U.S. Open during a much different layout than players will face in 2021, but it doesn't negate that putting on Poa has always been the weak link to Molinari's game. We saw him rank 64th in the field that weekend with his putter to stunt what should have been a better showing, and he enters this event ranked last over his previous 24 rounds on Poa greens. The ball-striking should carry him to another stout result, but the putter could have him fall just short when it comes to winning the event. None of this is meant to be a deterrent for DFS builds, but it does have me on the fence about what to do with him at his 28/1 outright number.
Kevin Streelman ($8,900)
There are many guys around the skill level of Kevin Streelman that have specific courses they find fortune at during their career, but it doesn't always come along with the statistical backing that the American has at Pebble Beach. Streelman's success is easy to quantify when we look at his scoring ability between the key par-four and five ranges, and it doesn't hurt matters that he ranks inside the top-20 in this field in GIR percentage. The inability to play the Pro-Am portion with Larry Fitzgerald might wildly enough be a small deterrent since the two have built off of each other in the past, but the reason the venue fits his eye goes beyond their connection.
Cameron Tringale ($8,500)
I only run my model to feature the previous five years at each venue, but if we go back and add some of the results before that for Cameron Tringale, the American cracks the top-10 for me in California. Tringale is a golfer that hits a ton of greens in regulation, which adds to his strength of finding success between 100-150 yards with his irons. With back-to-back top-20 performances on tour from the 33-year-old, there is an opening for him to keep the momentum rolling.
Brian Harman ($8,200)
We have reached a weird stage of Brian Harman's career where his DFS popularity has failed to highlight his talent. Yes, the Georgia native might not be going out and winning titles, but the 15 cuts he has made over the last 16 events is also nothing to scoff at when it comes to consistency. Harman remains a great golfer to target in cash-game builds, and the course should be a solid fit for his short-game mastery. I always find Harman to be interesting for GPP contests because of the lack of intrigue that comes his way, and it is not impossible that we see him inside the top-five come Sunday.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Nick Taylor ($7,600)
Defending champions almost always see a massive boost in popularity during the year of their title defense, but that narrative doesn't seem to be shaping up for Nick Taylor. The Canadian is currently projected to be outside the top-30 golfers for the week in ownership, but it is not as if his victory last year is the only top-notch finish we can find for him at the property. Taylor has four top-30s at the course during the previous five years and ranks 13th in the field when it comes to the main par-four range between 350-400 yards.
Scott Stallings ($7,500), Chez Reavie ($7,500), Doug Ghim ($7,500), Kyle Stanley ($7,400), Jim Furyk ($7,400)
It is an extensive group of players to link together into one post, but each is currently projecting right now into that eight-to-12 percent ownership range. My favorite of the bunch would be Kyle Stanley or Scott Stallings, who both massively underperformed at the Waste Management Open for the way they struck the ball over four days. However, I can make a relatively strong case for just about any golfer in this section, and lineups that need some salary relief could do a lot worse than grabbing one or two of these guys.
Mark Hubbard ($7,200)
The comment I am about to make is a slight stretch, but I don't see much of a difference between Matthew NeSmith ($8,000) and Mark Hubbard. None of that is meant to be a shot towards NeSmith because I do like his upside at any short track, but it is more served to show that I think Hubbard is underpriced at $7,200. The American did burn a ton of DFS users when he decided to turn into Elvis Presley and do the "Snail" when putting, but the performance that left the industry "all shook up" has been sandwiched between back-to-back top-35s.
Brendan Grace ($7,200)
It will be Brendan Grace's first start since losing his father to COVID-19 earlier in January. It is hard to predict where the South African will be at from a mentality standpoint, and nobody would blame him for packing his bags and leaving on Thursday if the round doesn't get off to the start he envisioned. I don't believe that will be the case and hope for his sake that he can find motivation and inspiration to honor his dad with a quality showing at Pebble Beach, but all the uncertainty has left Grace woefully under-owned in the current projections. I am not a big fan of speculating or writing about tragedy, but the general guesswork gives us a contrarian choice who seems like a natural fit for the course.
Ryan Armour ($7,000)
Despite being a short venue that allows accurate players to thrive, Pebble Beach has been a mixed bag for Ryan Armour in his career. Two top-30 results have been included within three missed cuts, but I am willing to give him a shot if we see his ownership totals continue to hover anywhere near the current one percent projection we have on Monday. Armour's accuracy is an advantage here, and he should be able to avoid bogeys better than most on the par-threes.
Patrick Rodgers ($6,900)
It is hard to describe Patrick Rodgers' game during his three-tournament missed cut stretch. Random implosions have undone an otherwise steady statistical production, which we see by the American gaining strokes cumulatively with his driver, short game and putter during that duration of time. A negative- 5.2 stroke outlier with his irons at the Waste Management doesn't allow us to say the same statement about his approach game, but we even see him better than the field there when we remove last week's debacle. To me, it feels like Rodgers is closer than the results might appear, and we know from past experiences that he is a threat for a top-10 when everything does click - evident by his 10th place here in 2017.
Joseph Bramlett ($6,700)
Like anyone down in this section, you are going to have negative statistical trends that will need to be overcome. Joseph Bramlett is no different with various pertinent categories being less than ideal for him to find success, but I do have his made cut percentage more in the vicinity of someone that should be priced around $7,500 for this event. That is a big difference when you start discussing the equity you get from a golfer inside of the $7,000 range versus anything lower, and we see that potential with an 18th-place showing in his only appearance at the property in 2020.
Chesson Hadley ($6,700)
You never know what you are going to quite get from Chesson Hadley, but it is worth noting that the 33-year-old is the most significant disparity on my model when it comes to betting rank versus DK rank. Hadley's DraftKings price tag places him as the 77th most expensive on the slate, but we see a heightened win equity present with his Vegas odds, coming into the week as the 51st golfer at 150/1. That is not always the best indicator to use to locate potential, but what it does tell us is that sportsbooks expect a bigger upside from him than the peers in his range when he does get himself into contention. My numbers tell a very similar story, making Hadley the typical underrated/volatile commodity that he is for most events.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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