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Jon Anderson's Shortstop Tiered Rankings and Projections

I am on to shortstop in my position-by-position tiered rankings. Check out the rest of the series at the links below:

First Base
Second Base
Third Base

This is quite a different position than what we've seen so far with first and second base. There are four studs at the position, and lots and lots of steals to be had. Here's how I see the tiers. At the end of each write-up, I'll give you my "favorite" name from each tier. This is who I like the best at their current ADP.

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Tier 1

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1 2.7 677 112 39 101 26 .283
Trevor Story 2 11.6 672 105 35 100 24 .277

You could certainly make the case that Tatis should be in a tier by himself, but I'm just a little hesitant to jump on that wagon since we've seen just 154 Major Leagues game from the guy. There is no doubt he's the best bet in the entire league for 30/30 season with a strong batting average, and you can see his projections are just through the roof.

I include Story here just because of the track record. He has been a fantasy stud three straight seasons now, and while the run and RBI count may drop a bit with Nolan Arenado leaving town, he is still a young, phenomenal hitter playing half of his games in Coors. Who knows, you may even see him take his base-stealing to a new level without Arenado's bat around.

Favorite: Tatis

 

Tier 2

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Trea Turner 3 7.2 688 107 23 81 34 .285
Francisco Lindor 4 11.0 682 100 33 90 19 .260

These could have been tier-one guys, and in a lot of drafts, they are first-round picks. However, Tatis and Story just seem to separate themselves a bit. There are doubts that Turner can hit 30 homers and some questions about Lindor's batting average that don't really exist as much with Tatis and Story, so I have them just a small step behind. I think both of these guys has every bit of the upside of the other two players though, and you could see them both doing something crazy like a 30/30 season with a .300 batting average. You really can't lose if you're picking one of these first four shortstops.

Favorite: Lindor

 

Tier 3

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Adalberto Mondesi 5 23.4 646 84 20 78 55 .257
Bo Bichette 6 23.8 673 100 25 84 24 .281
Corey Seager 7 25.5 645 97 31 99 3 .294
Xander Bogaerts 8 35.4 649 90 26 95 8 .283

There's a pretty significant drop-off from tier two to tier three, and the projections show that. Mondesi is, of course, the most polarizing fantasy player in the game. If he actually steals you 55 bases, he's going to be very valuable, but if he's a real risk to completely ruin your roster. The other three guys are much safer options that will contribute across the board, but the ceilings are just not at the same level as the four players in the top two tiers.

At this point, we've already ranked seven shortstops, so that's probably around or over half the teams in your league having a shortstop. I would really want to get one of these top seven guys, as I think the floor drops off at this point.

 

Tier 4

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Tim Anderson 9 41.3 664 85 23 79 17 .274
Gleyber Torres 10 69.3 625 87 32 96 6 .271
Javier Baez 11 72.1 646 82 30 97 12 .256
Marcus Semien 12 140.8 682 98 24 76 11 .255

This is no doubt disrespectful of Tim Anderson given what he's done over the last two years, I just don't believe in the batting average, and neither do the projections. I think a .274 mark is fair, although we might be a little low on runs and homers here. He's clearly the top option in this tier.

After Anderson, you have Torres and Baez who should hit you some home runs but are unlikely to help you in batting average or steal a ton of bases. Then there's Semien, who maybe should be in the next tier, but I think he's in for a nice season in that revamped Blue Jays lineup in a much better park to hit in. He won't be hitting .290 or hitting 30 homers or stealing 20 bags, but I think you'll be pretty happy with the production you get from pick 141.

Favorite: Semien

 

Tier 5

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Dansby Swanson 13 104.2 642 81 20 73 11 .250
Carlos Correa 14 126.9 622 81 27 87 2 .261
Tommy Edman 15 129.7 499 61 12 52 13 .266
Jonathan Villar 16 144.2 424 54 11 43 22 .253
Paul DeJong 17 219.8 644 81 28 87 6 .248

This is the last tier where playing time is secure, but all of these players have gone long stretches without being very valuable as fantasy players. The only strong steals source left is Villar, who is now in a utility role with the Mets as you can see by that 424 plate appearance projection. Edman is interesting for steals as well, but stole just two bases in the short 2020 season while looking much worse at the plate overall.

Favorite: Correa

 

Tier 6

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Didi Gregorius 18 164.7 586 73 25 82 7 .256
Jake Cronenworth 19 173.3 422 49 8 46 8 .272
Andres Gimenez 20 181.5 429 49 10 48 18 .260
Jorge Polanco 21 211.8 557 74 15 64 7 .270
Chris Taylor 22 217.7 592 72 17 69 8 .246
David Fletcher 23 221.5 666 81 9 59 8 .278
Wander Franco 24 293.4 388 39 7 37 8 .240

We have big question marks with every name here, whether it be skill-wise or playing time. These aren't players you want to depend on to be starters on your fantasy team.

Favorite: Gimenez (for late steals)

 

Tier 7

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Ha-Seong Kim 25 182.4 277 34 9 33 7 .258
Willi Castro 26 239.8 514 60 14 59 8 .268
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 27 294.3 577 59 8 54 14 .260
Amed Rosario 28 299.3 415 49 10 47 11 .280
Joey Wendle 29 311.7 397 42 7 39 10 .256
Willy Adames 30 331.0 526 59 17 62 6 .248
Nick Ahmed 31 391.3 593 64 17 67 7 .243
Miguel Rojas 32 399.6 551 60 10 53 10 .271

And here we have guys that don't do anything particularly well for fantasy purposes, mostly with playing time questions as well. Most of these names will go undrafted in standard leagues, so it's not a very consequential tier. If Kim can find some playing time, he's easily the most interesting name here because of his perceived upside.

Favorite: Kim

 

Rundown

  • This is a position that is heavy on studs at the top, there are four huge ceiling players at the top that you may want to invest a first-round pick on. However, there are also some strong names in tiers three and four that fall quite a bit in the draft, making this a fine position to fill in a bit later.
  • More than likely, you're going to be getting a lot of your steals from this position. There are way more base-stealers here than other positions, so keep an eye on those projections when filling your shortstop position, if you don't get some here you might not be getting any at all.
  • There's really not much to like late, so prioritize getting one of the top seven names on your squad.



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