RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Collin Morikawa took down the first WGC of the year, finding magic in his putter after losing 7.6 shots the week prior at the Genesis Invitational. I always stress the importance in these articles of attempting to pinpoint positive regression candidates on the putting surface, and it shouldn't come as a massive shock that we saw the youngster walk out of Florida victorious with the way he has been striking the ball over his last three contests. Morikawa has now gained a staggering 25.6 shots with his irons in his previous three tournaments, and the win notches him his fourth title on tour in just 41 events.
The 24-year-old was someone for me last weekend that was a fixture for my DFS lineups (both Showdown and pre-tournament). My model had Morikawa ranked 10th in the field, six spots higher than the betting market, five spots above DraftKings and an impressive eight points above the industry's consensus ownership rank. I wasn't quite able to land him on an outright ticket because I did have some concerns about how his putter would hold up on quick Bermuda greens, but it was a relatively strong week if we ignore the Jon Rahm debacle. For tracking purposes, eight of the nine winners this year have graded inside the top-30 for me on my model, including seven being higher than the industry consensus.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Arnold Palmer Invitational
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
7,454 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
Most of the United States' high-end players have decided to take this week off to prepare for the Players Championship, leaving us with a European-heavy field in Florida. The tournament's invitational status will keep entries down to 120 golfers, although that number is currently inflated to 123 to account for former champions Robert Gamez (1990), Paul Goydos (1996) and Tim Herron (1999). All of that is worth noting because an alternate will not replace any golfer that removes their name from the field, and the condensed nature does allow a slightly more aggressive route to be taken on DFS sites when it comes to roster construction.
On the surface, Bay Hill is an extremely complicated venue in ideal settings but can quickly ramp up in difficulty if the wind comes into play. As of Monday morning, we do have some potential for havoc on Saturday and Sunday, but it is not as if that is something we can adequately anticipate since scores will decide weekend tee times. Water comes into play on 10 holes, and the property is heavily bunkered with 85 sand traps. Golfers will have their best chance to score on the four par-fives, but it isn't easy to find too many natural birdie opportunities aside from that.
Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards will be crucial this weekend, which is one of the reasons why Bay Hill is a second shot course. Players will need to scramble around Arnie's masterpiece to salvage par when possible, and it will be essential to create birdie opportunities when the time is right. The venue is long at over 7,400 yards, but it doesn't allow golfers to bomb-and-gauge freely. There is a strategy that comes into play on most holes, and players will need to understand the risk/reward behind every shot.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Bay Hill | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 276 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 61% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.56 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 9/1 and is followed by Viktor Hovland and Bryson Dechambeau at 12/1, Tyrrell Hatton at 18/1 and Patrick Reed at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach 15%
- Weighted Par-Five 15%
- Total Driving 15%
- GIR+ATG 12.5%
- Sand Save Percentage 12.5%
- Last 100 Bermuda Putting 10%
- Strokes Gained Total Moderate to Severe Wind 10%
- Weighted Par-Three 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,500)
For all the talk about Rory McIlroy's struggles, we are really only dealing with one sub-par result since the BMW Championship in August. The Irishman has produced 10 finishes inside the top-21 over his last 11 tournaments, and I believe it speaks to the expectation level around his game that a sixth-place at the WGC was considered disappointing. I can't quite pinpoint what is going wrong on Sunday that is preventing him from having a chance to enter the winner's circle again, but there is going to be a week where the eighth-ranked player in the world puts all the pieces together. Will that happen here? I am not sure. But McIlroy does have a victory and three other top-six results at this venue over the last four years for a reason.
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
You know what you are getting when you select Bryson DeChambeau, even if what you are getting is a complete question mark. What I mean by that is: DeChambeau is golf's wild-card - driven by his quest for distance and his crusade to outthink his competitors. Unfortunately, that line of reasoning sometimes places the American so far outside of the box that he can't quite fit himself back in for tour stops throughout the year. As of right now, there does look to be an opportunity to leverage ownership if the American continues to hover around 10% owned on DraftKings contests, but for as high as the sky is for his upside, the floor is just about as low. I would proceed with caution in both directions, but it won't take much exposure to be overweight.
Viktor Hovland ($10,600)
If Viktor Hovland is going to continue to gain strokes putting, watch out. I do want to point out that Hovland has never gained strokes with his flat stick in four consecutive events - something he will look to accomplish at the API, but his game does seem to be clicking at the right time. I worry a little that his poor play around the green might catch up to him if his putter goes cold for a few days, but the 23-year-old isn't egregiously priced by any means. I would have flipped him with Tyrrell Hatton, but it is close.
Patrick Reed ($10,200)
I thought we got one of the more balanced attacks that we have seen from Patrick Reed in quite some time at Concession. The American gained strokes across all spectrums, including an impressive 5.3 with his irons - the second-highest total we have seen from him since the 3M Open in 2019. I don't think it is a shock if you read my article weekly when I say that Reed is always a little overpriced for my liking, but his game is trending in a positive direction after a victory at the Farmers and top-10 last week.
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,000)
Since opening 2021 with a win in Abu Dhabi, Hatton has strung together a 22nd in Dubai, a sixth in Saudi Arabia and a 22nd last weekend at the WGC. It felt as if Hatton's Concession result should have been better with the way he struck his irons, but a paltry 6.5 shots lost around the green equated to the Englishman missing out on what should have been a top-10 finish. It seems like a good rebound spot for the defending champion, and he ranks inside the top-12 in this field in strokes gained approach, strokes gained total in windy conditions, par-three average, overall birdie or better percentage and proximity over 200 yards.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Sungjae Im ($9,700)
Back-to-back top-three finishes for Sungjae Im at Bay Hill is quite the start to his career, but it doesn't come without a little hesitancy with the current form the South Korean brings to the table. Im has struggled with his irons over his last two events, losing 5.2 shots in total, but it hasn't stopped the quality finishes from piling in during that time. I believe Im benefits more if the weather remains calm and scoring gets amplified, but he is pretty steady and consistent across the board. My model ranks the 22-year-old third, and I will find myself with him included in my player to some level.
Jason Day ($9,200)
Three-peats are challenging to accomplish in any sport. With that being said, there is no way that Jason Day withdraws for the third straight year and heads to Magic Kingdom, correct? If you recall, this is the infamous event where the Aussie left mid-round two years ago and spent the day with Mickey and friends and compounded on that situation by pulling out mid-tourney once again in 2020. As much as I am tired of getting burned by Day's antics, this is about as good of a spot as you can get him in for an event. His iron play has been shaky as of late, but we always see massive improvements when he draws long or short proximity ranges - two areas he will frequently be faced with on the par-fives. I swore to the readers of this article that we wouldn't go down this route as much in 2021, but don't worry Jason, you've got a friend in me. Shoot 'em up, Space Ranger!
Paul Casey ($9,100)
Paul Casey's lack of perceived win equity typically gives us a marginal edge when it comes to rostering him, mainly when we can acquire the 43-year-old around $9,000 in a respectable (but not overly robust) field. Casey's more recent putting form has exceeded his long-term data, which has seen the Englishman gain strokes in eight of his last 10 events. Most of those showings haven't exactly been performances that have broken the bank, but when we add a steadier putter to his ball-striking and long iron acumen, a picture starts to get painted of someone that might be ready to win again on tour.
Will Zalatoris ($8,600)
These prices continue to remain somewhat reasonable because we haven't seen that upper echelon performance out of Will Zalatoris quite yet. That is not to say that his results haven't been stellar, but it is hard to find a tournament where the American had a strong chance to win down the stretch on Sunday. Zalatoris continued his torrid ball-striking ways at the WGC, gaining 6.5 shots off the tee + approach, and should see an improvement on the greens after losing nearly five shots at Concession. The 24-year-old hasn't lost strokes with his putter in back-to-back tournaments during his 2020-2021 ascension and makes for a nice target for those looking to acquire GPP upside.
Harris English ($8,300)
I don't want to go too deep into this mention because Harris English has been AWFUL over his last three starts. The American imploded by losing 9.6 shots OTT + APP last weekend at Concession, making it three straight tournaments with negative ball-striking numbers. However, there will be a contrarian GPP opening for those that are willing to bite the bullet. I expect English to be roughly 3-4 percent owned and am fine sneaking him into lineups at a marginally higher percentage in very large-field GPP contests.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Cameron Davis ($7,900)
I've mentioned recently how Cameron Davis is one of my best values on tour at his current going rate, and we get another intriguing price tag in the $7,000 range. The one downside is that the Aussie will be making his first start at Bay Hill, but the 15.8 shots he has earned with his irons over the last four events should translate nicely to this week's second-shot track. The early assumption to Davis' game was that bomb-and-gouge venues might be where he was most suited to find success, but we have seen a handful of quality results recently at properties where irons rule the day.
Justin Rose ($7,800)
From a two-year data perspective, Justin Rose is technically a small negative value for me in all game types this weekend, but it is challenging for me to overlook the categories where he is elite. While Rose's irons have caused him issues at times recently, we see a very similar makeup to Jason Day - one that shows him as an exceptional iron player from beyond 200 yards and within 100 yards. Those two critical distances can make up for a lot of additional sub-standard proximity metrics, and it shouldn't hurt matters that he ranks fifth in sand save percentage and 15th in moderate-to-severe wind conditions.
Cameron Tringale ($7,700)
There haven't been many players with better form than Cameron Tringale over the last few months. Four consecutive top-26 finishes will partially explain the robust run, but I am most encouraged by him ranking inside the top-25 of my model in stats, form and course history. Tringale adds to that by placing sixth in approach compared to the field and wraps up the overall makeup by grading third over his last 24 rounds in strokes gained total.
Lanto Griffin ($7,700)
You are never going to get perfect credentials for a golfer when they are down in this 100/1 betting range, but I think DraftKings has finally settled into a price tag that seems fair for Lanto Griffin. The industry has become aware of the upside he brings to the table when priced in the $6,000 section, but we did receive an inflated boost for a handful of events when they took him above and beyond the $7,000s. Griffin is a quality par-five scorer, and while I realize this will be an unpopular opinion, I would much rather drop down in salary to acquire Griffin than I would pay up for a similar type option in Sam Burns at $8,400. Burns is the hot name floating around right now, but Griffin is just as good of a golfer, in my opinion.
Charley Hoffman ($7,600)
With three finishes inside the top-14 over his last four trips to Bay Hill, the cat is out of the bag when it comes to Charley Hoffman's affinity for the property. With that will come an increase in ownership, but it is hard for me to find too many things to wildly dislike about his chances of making it four top-notch finishes here since 2016. Sure, his sand save percentage leaves something to be desired, but Hoffman's ability to strike his long irons well is an excellent mixture to add to the superb wind prowess he brings to the table.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,400)
The course history will show three top-26 finishes for Emiliano Grillo at Bay Hill, but I think it is important to note that last year's DQ came on the heels of what would have resulted in a missed cut by three shots. Grillo imploded during his Friday round - firing a paltry 80 before incorrectly signing his scorecard. There is more volatility here present than one might realize, and it might come with less upside than I would like to admit. Still, though, Grillo is a reasonably priced candidate to target at $7,400 if you are looking for a potential cut-maker that can churn you out a top-40 finish.
Chris Kirk ($7,000)
Chris Kirk isn't immune to getting rattled in the wind, but this is probably one of the biggest mispricings of a golfer $7,000 or above. The American has been impressive with three top-16s over his last four tournaments and adds to that resume with three top-15s at Bay Hill since 2016. I wouldn't have argued against a price tag that had him $1,000 higher, so I will gladly take the discount at $7,000.
Henrik Stenson ($7,000)
We just haven't seen enough golf out of Henrik Stenson over the last year to determine where his game is at currently. That is why we get a price tag and outright number that would have placed the community into absolute disbelief five years ago, but I don't hate the idea of taking a few fliers in GPP contests. Look, it can go poorly after watching him miss the cut in Saudi Arabia and Dubai in his last two starts, but Stenson's course history at Bay Hill is enough for me to at least consider taking a few shots that he finds gold in Florida.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Brendan Steele ($6,900), Zach Johnson ($6,900), Patrick Rodgers ($6,800), Aaron Wise ($6,700), Lucas Glover ($6,700), Kyle Stanley ($6,500), Steve Stricker ($6,400), Martin Laird ($6,400)
***Plays are not limited to those options, but they are some of the ones that popped in my model. For a complete list, look at my model! If you are extremely desperate below $6,400 then KH Lee ($6,300), Bo Hoag ($6,200) and Kramer Hicock ($6,000) are volatile but acceptable routes.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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