Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): U.S. Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Palmetto Championship At Congaree. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - U.S. Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

 

Torrey Pines (South)

7,698 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa

My favorite major of the season is finally upon us, and while I know Torrey Pines gets a bad wrap for being a straightforward track that primarily rewards fairways and greens in regulation, I seem to be in the minority here when it comes to my views on the South track.

Let's ignore for a second that the venue is a spectacular cliff-side location that shows well on television. That factor is good for the casual fan who will tune in to see California weather and the aesthetically appeasing view lines, but I believe more will go into this test than just eye-appeal. In my opinion, Torrey Pines is a property that can easily get manipulated by the USGA, which means an already behemoth layout can quickly transform into your prototypical U.S. Open dog fight. Yes, some of that will have to be done by further enhancing driving accuracy, but that is one reason I am not necessarily in full belief that the bomb-and-gouge strategy that most are touting this week will fully come to fruition. I will never view distance off the tee as a negative, but luscious rough will make finding the putting surface difficult, especially when considering that most of these second shots will be coming from outside of 175 yards and trying to land on small greens that are firm and fast.

Three-putt avoidance should be worth considering since we have seen that number increase from 0.55 on your average tour stop to 0.73 here, and the ability to scramble and save par from bunkers will be something I am weighing for my model. Historically, finding fairways hasn't done much to increase win equity for players at past U.S. Open venues, but it is a dangerous game we are playing where we might know too much about a property that we see yearly. I still believe the golfer that can hit the ball the straightest and the furthest for the week will win, but that blueprint points more towards total driving prowess than anything else.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Torrey Pines	Tour Average
Driving Distance	285	282
Driving Accuracy	52%	62%
GIR Percentage	62%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	51%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.73	0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Dustin Johnson at 14/1, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka at 16/1 and Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth at 18/1.

Key Stats 

• Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
• Fast Poa Greens L50 12.5%
• Weighted Par-Four Scoring 10%
• Weighted Par-Five Scoring 10%
• Sand Save 10%
• Driving Distance 7.5%
• Total Driving 12.5%
• GIR Mixed With Long Irons 17.5%
• GIR Out Of Fairway Bunkers 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($11,200) - There is a reason why Jon Rahm is the top-priced player on the DraftKings board, and it goes beyond the stellar golf he was playing at Memorial before being forced to withdraw because of COVID-19. Yes, I do have some minor concerns that he might have peaked too early, and it doesn't help the situation that he was forced into isolation weeks before the third major of 2021. Still, Rahm's history at Torrey Pines mixed with his affinity for Poa greens, California properties and total driving contests is too much for me to ignore.
• Most Upside: Dustin Johnson ($10,700) - It is hard to say that Dustin Johnson is bringing his A-game to Torrey Pines, but it is worth mentioning that he gained strokes in all facets at the Palmetto - the first time we have seen that from the American in nine events. Things are closer to clicking for DJ than they might appear, and he ranks second for me when looking at GPP upside and third in statistical rank.
• Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($10,700), Bryson DeChambeau ($10,400) - At this moment, ownership looks like it will go in order of Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth, and while there is still a lot of time for these players to separate themselves in popularity, DeChambeau and Johnson feel like they will give you the best contrarian route possible. High-end win equity will be there for both options, and we see it in the betting market with them being favored over anyone not named Jon Rahm or Xander Schauffele.
• Fade: Jordan Spieth ($10,900) - Spieth is a fade for me in cash-game contests because of his price tag, but it is still hard to ignore him in GPP builds. The American doesn't grade out exceptionally well for me when looking at his fit for Torrey Pines, but many of those factors are being baked into his sub-10 percent ownership total. I am okay with the idea of playing Spieth under the mindset that you are getting a contrarian option that has true win equity, but it is essential to know what you are receiving from a golfer that hasn't done better than 35th at Torrey Pines in his last three starts. None of that is to say that he can't turn it around, but the sole intrigue I have for playing him stems from the fact that his price tag turned a lot of the community off.
• Most Likely Winner: Dustin Johnson ($10,700)

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,200), Patrick Reed ($9,00) - Only Viktor Hovland and Patrick Reed grade out as improvements in my model when assessing a golfer's safety versus overall rank. Of course, that isn't always the best way to handicap a situation because I think you lose some of the win equity when going that route, but it is difficult not to like the price tags on two players that should be around for the weekend at a minimum.
• Most Upside: Xander Schauffele - ($9,300) - There is no other way to say it; this is an absurd price tag on Xander Schauffele. Unfortunately, that isn't a good thing with the extreme popularity that comes with the underpricing, but there is a strong argument to be made that Xander should be a $10,000 option, which is being enhanced by the betting market pricing him as a favorite against every player in this field not named Jon Rahm in a head-to-head battle
• Favorite GPP Play: Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) - If you are playing Xander Schauffele, it will have to be way overweight to the field. I don't mind that route if you are willing to accept the hefty ownership, but let's pinpoint a golfer that isn't so popular. Justin Thomas would be on this same shortlist of options to consider, but I like Cantlay's current form more - not to mention there are probably fewer red flags from a statistical perspective to worry about on the 29-year-old.
• Fade: None - Although I will be very underweight to Rory McIlroy.
• Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($9,300)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100) - Louis Oosthuizen hasn't finished outside of 23rd place in his last six U.S. Open starts and ranks inside the top-25 of this field in strokes gained around the green, fast poa putting, sand save percentage and weighted par-four scoring.
• Favorite GPP Play: Webb Simpson ($8,600) - Webb Simpson's lack of length is going to keep ownership down, but the 2012 U.S. Open champion has the game to make up for his lack of distance.
• Fade: Corey Conners ($8,200) - The fast Poa greens will prove to be a disaster for Corey Conners if his irons aren't dialed in. The Canadian stumbled with them for the first time in a while at the Memorial, and I fear a similar situation could present itself if he can't get them back under control.
• Most Likely Winner: Webb Simpson ($8,600) - As much as I want to say Tony Finau at Torrey Pines, which I have said for the last four years of him at this venue, I think Simpson has a real shot to surprise. I wouldn't completely get rid of Cameron Smith ($8,000) either. He is one of the biggest climbers for me if I turn my model into all the volatility that it can handle.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Paul Casey ($7,900)
• Most Upside: Charley Hoffman ($7,200)
• Favorite GPP Play: Harris English ($7,300), Tommy Fleetwood ($7,800) 
• Fade: Phil Mickelson ($7,700) 
• Most Likely Winner: Paul Casey ($7,900), Charley Hoffman ($7,200) - Both are more suited towards cash games than anything else, but a top-10 would go a long way.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are some of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Zach Johnson ($6,900), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Wyndham Clark ($6,700), Brendan Steele ($6,500), Patrick Rodgers ($6,500)

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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