RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the John Deere Classic. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - John Deere Classic
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Deere Run
7,268 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass
What is there to say about this relatively straightforward test that DA Weibring designed in 1999? First off, if you are entering the week with any expectation of this being something other than a birdie fest, you might want to recalculate your model, as the wide-open fairways and larger than average greens should turn this into a wedge/putting contest.
However, none of that helps us condense down a player pool past the arbitrary dart throw category of strokes gained putting. Golfers will undoubtedly need to make their fair share of putts with their flat stick, but I think there might be a better way to come across that statistic than looking for the best putters on tour. Last week, I ran a model that featured weighted proximity correlated to the venue and infused some of the make percentages that we have on record over the duration of the event's history, and I believe a similar thought process here in Illinois might go a long way. Essentially, I want to find golfers that will hit their irons to a makeable range and give themselves a better chance to make the putt.
Par-five scoring will come into play since two of the three holes are reachable in two shots for players that provide extra oomph off the tee, and while the track has 78 bunkers and four water hazards listed on the scorecard, the danger of not finding land should be easily avoidable for the field. At the end of the day, proximity, some semblance of a putter, scoring on easy courses and overall birdie or better percentage is where I will start my research. I always find shootouts a little more challenging to pinpoint an edge because of the random nature a venue like this provides, but there are a handful of plays that stuck out as value for me on the board.
***There is only one spot awarded for the Open Championship
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Deere Run | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 284 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 71% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 71% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.49 | 0.56 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Daniel Berger leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Brian Harman and Sungjae Im at 16/1, Russell Henley at 20/1 and Kevin Streelman at 22/1
Key Stats
- Weighted Proximity + Weighted Putting 35%
- SG Total On Easy Courses 20%
- OTT + APP 15%
- Weighted SG Total on Bent + Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Daniel Berger ($11,100) - It is hard to make a model this week that doesn't reveal Daniel Berger as the number one golfer. The American ranks first across the board when it comes to my overall rank, GPP and cash-game grade, which gets further emphasized by his placement of first compared to the field in four of the five statistical categories that I attached a weight to this week. The one category he was wasn't number one (weighted OTT + APP) resulted in a measly second. Berger is the favorite for a reason.
- Most Upside: Brian Harman ($10,400) - Brian Harman has only two solo victories in his career, but the fact that one of them came at the John Deere Classic in 2014 should reveal that the 34-year-old has what it takes to break the ceiling again. The 46th-ranked player in the world has been a wrecking-ball with 14 made cuts over his last 15 events, and the nine top-20 finishes show he is knocking on the door.
- Favorite GPP Play: Cameron Davis ($10,100) - A lot of pundits are going to attempt to discredit Cameron Davis and say the Aussie is untouchable at this price tag, but I don't necessarily live under that same belief. Davis grades second for me in this field from a statistical perspective, and I have alluded to it various times over the last six months that the 26-year-old is a potentially elite player. I ran a model that looked at the top-600 golfers in the world in February to try and find the most underrated commodities on tour, and Davis checked all the boxes by finishing as the 14th best player in the world. It might be a stretch to say that number is accurate, even with the victory, but it does show that his win last week didn't come as a shock.
- Fade: None
- Most Likely Winner: Brian Harman ($10,400) - I only give Brian Harman the edge over Daniel Berger because I think the win would mean more to him the week before a major championship.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Alex Noren ($9,300) - The easy answer here is to say Russell Henley, but man, that ownership total is lofty for a golfer that has been trending in the wrong direction over the last 24 rounds in his strokes gained metrics. I am still fine penciling him into cash-game builds because of his fourth-place ranking on my spreadsheet - perhaps even taking some shots with him in OAD contests - but Alex Noren brings a little higher made cut potential when I run my numbers. I am not going to talk anyone out of Henley and am fine using him in various areas (cash included), but it is hard to say this price tag provides a ton of value.
- Most Upside: Kevin Streelman - ($9,700) - We are splitting hairs with a lot of these players, but Kevin Streelman provides a very similar blueprint in the style that we get out of Russell Henley - except it should come at a reduction in ownership. Let's not confuse the situation, as Streelman is still the third-highest projected owned player on the board, but gamers might have an opportunity to pivot their exposure. I don't see a vast difference between the two golfers, and it is worth noting that Streelman is currently -127 in a head-to-head wager against his counterpart.
- Favorite GPP Play: None - Kevin Na ($9,500) and Si Woo Kim ($9,100) provide the best opportunity to leverage ownership in GPP builds, but there is a risk surrounding both. I listed this as "none" because I don't want to oversell two golfers that are technically negative values for me when it comes to straight price points, but the lack of intrigue around the community will have me targeting each in GPP contests. There is enough upside here for either to win the event - just realize it comes with some risk. If deciding between the two, I do like Kim a little more.
- Fade: None - I know this is another boring answer, but pricing is generally decent here for the John Deere Classic. Decisions are going to have to be made, but nobody is jumping off the page as a must-fade candidate. Sometimes you just get weeks like this.
- Most Likely Winner: Kevin Streelman ($9,700)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Zach Johnson ($8,500) - Zach Johnson captured the title here in 2012 and has posted six top-five finishes over his career at the event. The stats point to him. The course history STRONGLY lines up for him. And his current form shouldn't be viewed as a negative, as Johnson has four top-51 results over his last six starts on tour. His missed cuts at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship weren't courses suited for his game, so I venture to say the form is a positive.
- Most Upside: Patton Kizzire ($8,900) - There is no other way to say it; Patton Kizzire is a better golfer at birdie tracks. The form has been a little all over the place over the last few months, but multiple top-25 results mean that he strikes it big when he finds himself in contention. Kizzire is ranked 15th over his previous 50 rounds at birdie courses and grades seventh in strokes gained with his flat stick.
- Favorite GPP Play: None - Not a ton of value on my model. Troy Merritt ($8,700) is someone worth giving a second look to because of his ability to play easy courses well at under 10 percent ownership, but we are seeing the projected popularity clog up in this area as a whole.
- Fade: Sebastian Munoz ($8,100) - Primarily a cash-game fade, but my model has issues with him in every facet that doesn't involve being under five percent owned. That should be viewed as a positive for the upside he brings to get hot, but he is untouchable in head-to-head contests of any kind.
- Most Likely Winner: Maverick McNealy ($8,800)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Kyle Stanley ($7,900) - A better spot for Kyle Stanley to be placed into cash lineups than last week. No issues playing Steve Stricker ($7,700) either.
- Most Upside: Various routes. Harold Varner III, Pat Perez and Richy Werenski are a few that grade as positive equity plays in the GPP market.
Favorite GPP Play: Erik Van Rooyen ($7,500) - Nobody is going to use EVR. Van Rooyen gets an easy track that removes a lot of his issues off the tee when it comes to accuracy, and I like the way he grades across the board from a statistical sense. At roughly one percent ownership, I like gambling on his upside.- Nobody is now playing EVR for good reason now after he pulled out. I like pivoting to one of the upside options I listed
- Fade: J.T. Poston ($7,500), Jim Herman ($7,000), Denny McCarthy ($7,000)
- Most Likely Winner: Pat Perez ($7,700)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Harry Higgs ($6,900), Adam Schenk ($6,900), Roger Sloan ($6,900), Josh Teater ($6,300), Chase Seiffert ($6,300), Anirban Lahiri ($6,700), Bill Haas ($6,400),
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
