RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Southwind
7,244 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
There are a few course history metrics that we need to discuss before getting started on our research. It is important to remember that TPC Southwind has spent most of its time on the PGA Tour as a lower-tiered venue - only making the jump up to the WGC in 2019. I still believe it is valuable to look at results from all years, but the last two seasons likely will be the best corollary you will find because of the quality of the field and the change from Bent to Bermuda grass.
In general, the venue is much larger than it may appear on paper. The par-fours are lengthy and feature seven that stretch over 450 yards. Seventy-six bunkers and 11 water hazards add to the potential hiccups along the way, and unlike some weeks where the water is just there for show, TPC Southwind punishes errant shots. More balls find the lake here than any other course on tour, and despite some relatively decent scores over the years, the venue consistently plays as one of the 15 toughest on tour.
Eight of the last nine winners have led the field in strokes gained tee to green for the week, so we will be attempting to pinpoint players who excel in that area. And if we add in strokes gained approach, ball striking, overall proximity, opportunities gained and par-four scoring, I believe we have a pretty good blueprint for how to attack the event.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Southwind | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 285 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 56% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 59% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.47 | 0.56 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka lead the way at 12/1 and are followed by Xander Schauffele at 14/1, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas at 16/1 and Rory McIlroy at 18/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green 25%
- SG Total on TPC Courses L50 15%
- Weighted Par-Four 15%
- Ball-Striking 15%
- Weighted Proximity 15%
- Overall Birdie or Better Percentage 10%
- Putting From 5-10 Feet 5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($10,400) - How can we argue against Jordan Spieth being back!? Fourteen straight-made cuts, which includes a victory at the Valero Texas Open and 11 additional top-20 finishes, should tell us the whole story, and the American provides a nice built-in floor that still possesses upside.
- Most Upside: Brooks Koepka ($10,600) - There is a reason why 25% of lineups are currently projected to take Brooks Koepka. The American has produced three top-two finishes here in his last five tries and ranks first in my model when it comes to overall rank. Gamers will have to decide how bullish they are on his chances, but the upside is there for another considerable result.
- Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($10,200) -A victory here in 2018 is overshadowed by his current form, but Dustin Johnson gets to remove some semblance of the two biggest issues he has experienced as of late - par-five scoring and long iron play. Johnson is almost 11% below his 2018 total in par-five birdie or better percentage, which stems from him being nearly six feet worse in proximity from 175+ yards. Luckily for him, 63.3% of irons come from within 175 yards, and he will only have to traverse two par-fives versus four.
- Fade: None - All have merit in one game type or another, although I won't find myself having much exposure to Xander Schauffele ($10,800). We will see how he reacts to his gold medal-winning performance in Japan, but water has been detrimental to him in the past! Look no further than his late stumbles at the Masters and TPC Scottsdale.
- Most Likely Winner: Collin Morikawa ($11,000) - Form is there, and nobody is a better player tee to green than the American.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600) - Louis Oosthuizen has been on fire with six top-18s over his past seven tournaments, including four top-three results. It is hard to find too many areas of his game that won't fit here.
- Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($9,900) - Justin Thomas is the defending champion of the event and isn't playing nearly as poorly as his 19th, 42nd, 40th and MC would suggest over the last 10 weeks. Thomas gained 3.091 shots OTT + Approach at the Olympics and finished 68-65 for a robust nine-under weekend close. We have seen him average a little less than five shots tee to green in trackable events since his Players Championship win, and it really is just the fact that he has no top-10s since that victory for why ownership is hovering around 12 percent. Thomas is the top man in no-cut fields and is also ranked first at TPC properties over his past 50 rounds.
- Favorite GPP Play: Paul Casey ($9,000) - Call me a glutton for punishment, but I am willing to forgive Paul Casey's 67th-place finish here in 2020. He entered that week with horrendous form and should set up nicely for a track that highlights his iron prowess - that, of course, is assuming he can avoid making big numbers because of the water.
- Fade: None - This tournament has EXTREMELY strong pricing up top.
- Most Likely Winner: Justin Thomas ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Abraham Ancer ($8,300) - It is always hard to poke too many holes into Abraham Ancer's game, but the lack of win equity does have me slotting him into cash-game builds over GPP contests - especially at nearly 20 percent ownership.
- Most Upside: Corey Conners ($8,100) - My model LOVED Corey Conners from a statistical perspective. The Canadian ranked second in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR percentage, and 11th in strokes gained tee to green. If Conners can get his putter going whatsoever, there is a chance he finds the first page of the leaderboard.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($8,900) - The two things that usually drive me away from Tony Finau are his price tag and popularity. Less than five percent ownership crosses one box, and I think he is always in play when he is under $9,000 in salary. Perhaps the birth of his latest child will propel him to WGC riches.
- Fade: Cameron Smith ($8,200) - I will remain out until Cameron Smith shows me a reason to jump back in the fray.
- Most Likely Winner: Webb Simpson ($8,500) - I can't stop playing him.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
If I am being honest, I am not a huge fan of this $7,000 range. I do believe Sungjae Im makes sense as a GPP target when we look into how nobody is going to want to play him after failing to get himself out of military service, but this territory will be more of random roster fillers than core plays.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Cameron Davis ($6,900), Sam Burns ($6,900), Matthew Wolff ($6,800), Carlos Ortiz ($6,700), Ryan Palmer ($6,500), Si Woo Kim ($6,400), Wilco Nienaber ($6,000)
I'd rather take my shots at the top of the board and mix/match some of these lower-tiered options. I don't see a massive difference between a player like Matthew Wolff ($6,800) and a lot of his $7,000 counterparts. I think that sort of a build will also open up more of a boom-or-bust nature if we stack the top and add our fliers of options like Burns, Kim and Wolff.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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