Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 21

3 years ago by Nicklaus Gaut

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11. More Points Leagues Analysis

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of August 16 - August 22, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, August 14.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Ronald Acuna Jr. being a top-five hitter versus top-20.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

In addition to our overall waiver wire leaderboards, we're deep enough into the season that we'll also start doing a 14-day leaderboard (21 days for pitchers), as well, giving us a window into recent production. The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards, overall and 14-day, are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

The Hansels

Let the recency bias wash over you because these players are just so hot, right now. So, just for fun, let's start making a chart of the players in the top-100 of APR over the last two weeks before diving into the position-by-position analysis.

First Base

Must Add

Brandon Belt, SF - While he is 1-for-13 in his last three games, Belt came back banging from IL, with four home runs and a .429 wOBA in seven games since returning. But keep in mind that, while he's still mostly still starting vs LHP, San Francisco has a crowded offense and could sit him more often if he starts to falter against the wronghanders. However, he hasn't yet, in 2021's small sample, posting a .442 wOBA over 45 PA, with just a 13.3% K%, compared to a .365 wOBA and 35.9% K% over 184 PA vs RHP.
Miguel Sano, MIN - The bombs haven't come in buckets but Sano now has four home runs in 99 PA since the All-Star break, slashing .259/.364/.494, with a .369 wOBA. That batting average may seem average but it's pretty special for someone usually fighting the Mendoza line. And while he's still always going to be more valuable in leagues without a K-penalty, Sano continues to show improved plate discipline...at least by his standards:

Can Add

Rowdy Tellez, MIL - The power has come back to earth in August, with Tellez going yard just once after hitting four home runs in the final week of July. But he has a .286 AVG in August and just an 18.9% K%, bumping him up in K-penalty leagues.
Bobby Dalbec, BOS - Dalbec has been solid lately, though his lack of contact will severely limit him in leagues with a K-penalty. But he's posted a 69 APR over the last two weeks, putting up an impressive .494 wOBA. Even if it's backed by a .371 xwOBA, that while still excellent, isn't some nearly-500 craziness.

Desperate Adds

Nate Lowe, TEX - The best thing you can say about Lowe in August, is that he's hit three doubles. But it's mostly struggles besides that, as he's slashing just .220/.273/.293, with a .252 wOBA and 36.4% K% over 44 PA. Until he shows some signs of life, Lowe is a play for only the desperate, with no levels of desperation judging the add if your league penalizes strikeouts.
Miguel Cabrera, DET - Still hunting for his 500th home run, Cabrera has been fading back down. He has a 127 APR over the last two weeks and a .290 xwOBA is more than a cut below a .342 wOBA.
Frank Schwindel, CHC - He's gone 5-for-8 in his last two games, with two home runs, and has a 34 APR over the last two weeks. He's also Frank Schwindel.

Notable IL

Second Base

Must Adds

Cesar Hernandez, CLE - Hernandez is still hanging but looks to be crossing our 50% threshold soon. He's nothing flashy, just an everyday compiler that occasionally goes on a homer binge.
Brendan Rodgers, COL - Rodgers only has a ho-hum 129 APR over the last two weeks but this must-add is all about the six games he'll play at home this week. Not to mention a game facing the struggling Ryan Weathers, as well as Arizona's bullpen.

Can Adds

Luis Arraez, MIN - The issue isn't with Arraez's stick, just his surrounding offense, as he's on a nine-game hit streak and has collected at least one hit in 22 of his past 24 games. Over his 90 PA in those 24 games, Arraez is slashing .415/.456/.500, with a .415 wOBA and 167 wRC+. Unfortunately, that sparkling line only comes with 13 R and 6 RBI.
Kolten Wong, MIL
Jed Lowrie, OAK - He has a kind of respectable 114 wRC+ and .329 wOBA in August, hitting two home runs, but also just a .188 AVG. Lowrie is fine as a fill-in but is really only worth riding when he goes streaking.
Aledmys Diaz, HOU - Diaz has a 72 APR and .376 wOBA over the last two weeks but a .278 xwOBA makes me a little skeptical.

Desperate Adds

Donovan Solano, SF

Notable IL

Gavin Lux, LAD
Nick Madrigal, CHW
Jurickson Profar, SD
Jon Berti, MIA
Christian Arroyo, BOS
Chris Owings, COL

Third Base

Must Adds

Jeimer Candelario, DET - "Hi! My name is Jeimer Candelario and while I may play for lowly Detroit, my favorite thing to do is rake." Candelario has a 32 APR over the last two weeks, with a .424 wOBA and .380 xwOBA. Oh, and he's currently on a 10-game hit streak and has gotten a hit in all but three of his 28 games since the All-Star break. Oh! I almost forgot:

Abraham Toro, SEA - Toro has only hit one home run in August but is still slashing .326/.446/.478, with a .407 wOBA and 166 wRC+.

Can Adds

Evan Longoria, SF - Activated off of the IL on Saturday, Longoria was a points league force prior to his injury. But before he becomes a must-add, it's worth evaluating whether his shoulder is still balky and whether his role remains the same in a Giants offense that is more crowded than when he left it.
Patrick Wisdom, CHC
Carter Kieboom, WSH - He's not doing anything special but is a low-budget compiler as he plays every day.

Desperate Adds

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Brian Anderson, MIA - Anderson came back from the IL on July 24 hitting, going 8-for-28, and hitting two home runs over the last six games of the month. August has been a struggle, though, as Anderson is slashing .214/.298/.310 over 47 PA, with a .276 wOBA and 75 wRC+.
Yandy Diaz, TB - Now lacking an everyday role, Diaz is unplayable in leagues without daily moves. And not that playable in those, either.

Notable IL

Evan Longoria, SF
Travis Shaw, MIL

Shortstop

Must Adds

Miguel Rojas, MIA - Rojas struggled after coming back from the finger injury that landed him on the IL but has really hit gas since the All-Star break. He's slashing .327/.373/.495 over 110 PA in the second half, with a .371 wOBA and 137 wRC+. And he's on fire, as we speak, collecting two hits in four of his last five games, and posting a .356 AVG and .411 wOBA in August.
Josh Rojas, ARI - We're going with back-to-back Rojas, as Josh has come back from the IL with his hitting stick in tow, going 7-for-19 and slashing .412/.474/.647, with a .472 wOBA.

Can Adds

J.P. Crawford, SEA
Amed Rosario, CLE - Rosario has a 16 APR over the last two weeks but his .386 wOBA is backed by a .326 xwOBA.
Jose Iglesias, LAA

Desperate Adds

Didi Gregorius, PHI
Paul DeJong, STL - He's never gotten it going but has heated up some over the last week, slashing .269/.333/.577, with two home runs and a .376 wOBA.
Luis Urias, MIL - Don't be fooled by his big numbers recently; Urias doesn't have an everyday role and those numbers are heavily driven by a 5-for-6 outing at Wrigley when he hit two home runs.

Notable IL

Nico Hoerner, CHC
Freddy Galvis, PHI
Niko Goodrum, DET

Outfielders

Must Adds

Anthony Santander, BAL - Run, don't walk, to go grab Santander if he's still available in your league. Because he shouldn't be. Santander has a 23 APR over the last two weeks, with a .467 wOBA and .511 xwOBA, and since the All-Star break is slashing .323/.386/.581, with a .407 wOBA and 162 APR.
Lewis Brinson, MIA - I don't know how it happened but someone must have injected Brinson with some of that Cuban NOS because Brin Diesel has put the pedal to the metaphorical metal. Brinson has a 3 APR over the last two weeks and is slashing .354/.404/.708 in August, with a .464 wOBA and 196 wRC+. Mi familia.
Sam Hilliard, COL - With a 34 APR over the last two weeks, Hilliard would already be a must-add. The fact that he gets a week of games in Colorado just hammers that point home.

Can Adds

Jarred Kelenic, SEA
Yadiel Hernandez, WSH
Andrew Vaughn, CHW
Connor Joe, COL - He's not a lock to start every day but has hit leadoff in the past five games and gets six games in Colorado this week. Joe has a .430 wOBA and .420 xwOBA over the last two weeks.
Brandon Nimmo, NYM - Nimmo has only been so-so since returning from the IL but continues to bat leadoff every day and has three multi-hit performances in his last six games.
Tyler Naquin, CIN - Naquin has been on fire in August, slashing .323/.400/.548 over 35 PA, with a .405 wOBA. Over the last two weeks, Naquin has a 108 APR, with a .391 wOBA and .407 xwOBA.
Odubel Herrera, PHI - Herrera has a 105 APR over the last two weeks, with a .347 wOBA and .407 xwOBA.
LaMonte Wade Jr., SF - Wade continues to rake, with a 79 APR over the last two weeks.
Lorenzo Cain, MIL - Milwaukee has been sitting Cain, likely trying to keep the 35-year-old fresh for the Brewers anticipated playoff run.

Desperate Adds

Darin Ruf, SF - Ruf is a stud but only if you have the flexibility to deal with his sporadic playing time vs LHP, against whom he has a .414 wOBA and 162 wRC+.

Notable IL

Akil Baddoo, DET
Kyle Lewis, SEA
Nick Senzel, CIN
Alex Kirilloff, MIN
Clint Frazier, NYY
Harold Ramirez, CLE
Jason Heyward, CHC
Ben Gamel, PIT
Willie Calhoun, TEX
Aaron Hicks, NYY
Jesus Sanchez, MIA
Miguel Andujar, NYY

Catchers

Must Adds

Travis d'Arnaud, ATL - Activated off of the IL last week, d'Arnaud is a must-add in points and any other format.
Elias Diaz, COL - Diaz has six home runs in the second half and gets six games at home this week.

Can Adds

Austin Nola, SD - Nola is an okay option in leagues without a strikeout penalty but jumps a few tiers in those with one, as he has just a 9.6% K%, with a 10.6% BB%.
Mitch Garver, MIN
Jorge Alfaro, MIA
Max Stassi, LAA - Stassi has really struggled in August, slashing .194/.286/.306 over 42 PA, with just one home run and a .266 wOBA.
Tyler Stephenson, CIN

Desperate Adds

All catcher adds are desperate adds.

Notable IL

Danny Jansen, TOR

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