Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 23

3 years ago by Nicklaus Gaut

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We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of August 30th - September 5th, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, August 29th.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Every point, in every category, counts.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Adds

Ranger Suarez, PHI (@ MIA) - Coming off of his biggest hiccup since moving the rotation (allowing 3 ER in 4.2 IP in a loss to Arizona), Suarez bounced backed to dominate an excellent Tampa team, failing to pick up the win but only allowing 1 ER in 6.2 IP, striking out seven and walking one. He'll face one of the worst offenses in baseball this week, going on the road to face a Miami team that has a 27.7% K% vs LHP since June 1, with just a .293 wOBA.
Carlos Hernandez, KC (vs CLE) - In his last six starts (technically five because the Royals used an opener in his last time out), Hernandez has a sparkling 1.73 ERA but that is heavily weighted by a start against Houston where he allowed 4 ER in 6 IP. In the other five, he had a 0.89 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 30.1 IP. He'll face a Cleveland offense that has been consistently bad vs RHP and who have a .303 wOBA and .299 xwOBA against them in the second half.
Jordan Montgomery, NYY (vs BAL) - Baltimore doesn't smash lefties quite like they were, running a .303 wOBA since the All-Star break that is down from a .331 wOBA vs LHP in the first half. And if you've missed it, the Yankees are one of the hottest teams in baseball while the Orioles have won exactly two games in August.
Bailey Ober, TB (@ DET, @ TB) - I'm probably not starting Ober against Tampa Bay if I don't have to but a matchup with Detroit is prime. The Tigers have improved vs LHP but still kind of stink versus RHP, posting a .295 wOBA in the second half that is the fifth-lowest in baseball. He doesn't go deep into games but Ober continues to be excellent in the second half (2.78 ERA, 3.53 FIP) and is coming off of pitching five shutout innings against the Red Sox, striking out seven.
Kyle Freeland, COL (@ TEX) - Damn it, I know the second that I make him a must-add, Freeland is going to kick me square in the goods as revenge for all of the jokes I've told since his finishing fifth in the 2018 Cy Young race unleashed a previously-unknown Kyle Freeland truther clan. But his 3.00 ERA (3.10 FIP) in the second half is hard to argue, nor is his matchup versus a Rangers offense that is one of baseball's worst teams - and arguably the worst versus lefties. Texas has a .251 wOBA vs LHP that is 30th in the second half.
Josiah Gray, WSH (vs PHI, vs NYM) - Both Philadelphia and New York have been bottom-10 offenses against RHP in the second half, while Gray keeps trucking along. In his five starts since being traded from the Dodgers, the rookie right-hander has a 2.89 ERA over 28 IP, though a 5.77 FIP speaks to those starts not being as impressive. But I'll still take the double-dose of mediocre opponents.

Can Adds

Daniel Lynch, KC (vs CHW) - A Royal facing the White Sox doesn't sound like a great start but Chicago has actually been pretty mediocre vs LHP in the second half, posting a .319 wOBA against them that is only the 18th-highest. While they don't strike out a lot (21.9% K% in the second half), Lynch has been too stellar lately to pass up. The rookie has a 1.62 ERA (3.11 FIP) over his last three starts, including two against Houston.
Nick Pivetta, BOS (@ TB, vs CLE) - Pivetta gets two starts this week but while Cleveland is a subpar offense versus RHP, Tampa Bay is certainly not. The Rays have a .328 wOBA vs RHP since the start of June, though they do have an above-average 25.2% K%. And the Boston rightie has not been great, as of late, with a 6.94 ERA (6.17 FIP) over his last three starts.
Tarik Skubal, DET (vs OAK) - The outstanding rookie seemingly hit a brick wall in July, posting a 5.86 ERA (6.06 FIP) over five starts, with only a 20.0% K%. But Skubal has blown back up over four starts in August, running a 1.59 ERA (3.03 FIP), with 27 strikeouts in 22.2 IP. While this is a high-floor start, the ceiling is likely limited, as Skubal is unlikely to go deep into the game, and even if he goes long enough to qualify for a win, counting on one from the Tigers is never a great idea. Granted, given his supreme whiff skills, even short outings can be high-scoring but Oakland is stingy versus LHP, running a 21.8% K% for the season and just a 19.9% K% since June 1.
Alec Mills, CHC (vs PIT) - Outside of a seven-run blowup against Kansas City, Mills has been decent in August, posting a 3.76 ERA over five starts. He'll face a Pittsburgh team that doesn't strike out much vs RHP (21.5% K% since June 1) but also doesn't hit them (.297 wOBA since June 1).
Austin Gomber, COL (@ TEX) - It can't be denied that Gomber has been a different pitcher since returning from the IL on July 21, posting a 6.06 ERA (5.89 FIP) over seven starts, after running a 3.68 ERA (3.64 FIP) through his first 15 starts. The question is, why? None of the usual red flags that accompany someone pitching through injury really apply to Gomber, as his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have stayed steady. So, I'm going to stay stubborn and run him out versus a Texas offense that is one of the league's worst vs LHP, who in the second half have a team wOBA, xwOBA, OPS, and wRC+ that are all either last or second-to-last in baseball.
Tanner Houck, BOS (vs CLE) - The rookie has struggled in his last three starts, posting a 5.27 ERA and only pitching a total of 13.2 IP. His 2.44 FIP over that period is more encouraging, though, and he'll face a Cleveland team with a mediocre .309 wOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Andrew Albers, MIN (vs CHC) - Albers has a shiny 0.96 ERA through his first two starts, going 1-0 and striking out a total of six batters in 9.1IP. While a 4.24 FIP doesn't shine as bright, Albers will face a Cubs team that is mostly dim, posting a .305 wOBA vs RHP in the second half, with a 27.2% K%.
Glen Otto Jr., TEX (vs COL) - Coming over in the Joey Gallo trade, Otto might ultimately be a bullpen guy considering he throws about 80% fastballs and sliders but he's starting for now and had a strong debut, shutting out the Astros for seven innings on two hits, while striking out seven. The Rockies have improved substantially vs RHP but still strike out a lot and still occasionally let Garrett Hampson play.
Erick Fedde, WSH (vs NYM) - Fedde is coming off of his best start of the year, allowing 1 ER in 6.1 IP in a win over the Marlins, while striking out 10. The Mets are a much better team but let's not get carried away; New York has a .308 wOBA vs RHP in the second half that is the 22nd highest in baseball.
Rich Hill, NYM (vs MIA) - Miami is bad enough vs LHP (.293 wOBA, 27.7% K% since June 1) that I guess you can start Hill? I mean, I won't be but...
Tyler Anderson, SEA (@ ARI) - I know I recommend Anderson a lot but be aware that Arizona is much improved in the second half vs LHP. Since the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks have a .340 wOBA (7th) and 20.9% K% vs LHP. Be careful.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU (@ SEA) - The Mariners have a .310 wOBA and 24.8% K% vs RHP since the All-Star break. No one gets excited about starting Odorizzi but this has five innings of around a 3.50 ERA, six strikeouts, and a win, written all over it. Boring but effective.
Nestor Cortes Jr., NYY (vs BAL) - Cortes Jr. has a 3.48 ERA in his eight starts since the start of July and faces a Baltimore team that aren't the left-crusher that they were in the first half. It's just getting to be that time of year when the Orioles are ready to pack it in and back home as soon as possible.
Matt Manning, DET (vs OAK)
Tyler Gilbert, ARI (vs SD, @ SEA)

Desperate Adds

Johnny Cueto, SF (vs MIL, vs LAD) - Cueto has a 2.64 ERA (3.72 FIP) in his six starts in the second half but will face a Milwaukee team that has been one of baseball's best offenses versus RHP in the second half, with a .337 wOBA (4th) and a 20.8% K% (27th). And the Dodgers are no slouch, either, with a .331 wOBA vs RHP in the second half that is the 7th highest.
Taylor Widener, ARI (vs SD) - A start against San Diego doesn't seem as scary as it was earlier in the season, with the Padres only posting a .313 wOBA (18th) vs RHP. Over his last four starts, Widener has posted a 2.70 ERA (but a 5.92 FIP!), striking out 21 in 20 IP, including picking up a win against the Padres on August 7, allowing 2 ER in 5 IP.
Mike Minor, KC (vs CLE, @ CHW) - You probably already know that facing the White Sox isn't a great matchup but don't sleep on a Cleveland offense that has substantially improved their performance vs LHP in the second half. The Guardians had a .300 wOBA in the first half but are up to a .344 wOBA vs LHP in the second half that is the sixth-highest.
Kris Bubic, KC (vs CLE, vs CHW) - Rinse and repeat from above.
Wil Crowe, PIT (@ CHC) - An important match in the battle for the NL basement, Crowe gets to face a Cubs team with just a .292 wOBA and 28.2% K% since June 1. Crowe got roughed up for 5 ER in 4.2 IP in his last start against the Diamondbacks but in his previous five starts had posted a 3.00 ERA.
Zach Davies, CHC (@ PIT) - If you like craps, this is the start for you. Davies gets a Pirates team with a .287 wOBA vs RHP that is the third-lowest in baseball, though just a 22.7% K%. In two starts against the Pirates in 2021 (both in April), Davies pitched seven shutout innings in one and allowed 7 ER in 1.2 IP in the other. All bets in.
Kwang Hyun Kim, STL (@ MIL) - The Brewers have mediocre numbers versus LHP in the second half but have slashed their strikeout rate, moving from 25.5% K% in the first half to a 20.8% K%. In his return from the IL last Tuesday, Kim was only allowed to go 2.2 IP, allowing no runs and no hits but walking two.
Casey Mize, DET (vs MIN, @ CIN) - Mize has been up and down and like Skubal, is unlikely to pitch more than five innings. Not to mention two really poor matchups, facing two of baseball's best offenses vs RHP since the All-Star break. Minnesota has a .337 wOBA (5th) and 22.3% K%, while Cincinnati has a .352 wOBA vs RHP in the second half - the best mark in baseball.
Drew Smyly, ATL (@ LAD, @ COL) - For those who desperately need to throw just about any two starts against the wall, I give you Drew Smyly. Good luck.
Edward Cabrera, MIA (@ NYM)
Zach Thompson, MIA (@ NYM)
Bryce Wilson, PIT (@ CHW, @ CHC)
Taylor Hearn, TEX (vs LAA)
Luis Patino, SD (vs BOS, vs MIN)
Steven Brault, PIT (@ CHC)
J. A. Happ, STL (@ CIN) - Happ is only good when he faces the Pirates. The Reds are not excellent versus LHP (.311 wOBA in the second half) but they are also not the Pirates. Therefore, J. A. Happ will not be good. Logiced.

Notable IL

Dinelson Lamet, SD
Stephen Strasburg, WSH
Dylan Bundy, LAA
Tony Gonsolin, LAD
Michael Pineda, MIN
Domingo German, NYY
Brad Keller, KC
Danny Duffy, LAD
Carlos Martinez, STL
Merrill Kelly, ARI
Patrick Sandoval, LAA
Jake Arrieta, SD
Adbert Alzolay, CHC
Alex Cobb, LAA
JT Brubaker, PIT
Ross Stripling, TOR
Dane Dunning, TEX
Mike Foltynewicz, TEX
Wily Peralta, DET
Justus Sheffield, SEA
Joe Ross, WSH
Spencer Turnbull, DET
Reid Detmers, LAA
Spencer Howard, TEX
Dillon Peters, PIT
David Peterson, NYM
Justin Dunn, SEA
Luke Weaver, ARI
Tucker Davidson, ATL

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Notable IL

With the trade deadline (and injuries) shaking bullpens up all over the league, we're going to do things a little differently in the second half, going through each team that currently has a relevant (according to our roster% threshold) bullpen situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Clippard (Save on Wednesday, Blown Save on Friday) but Noe Ramirez (Loss on Monday, Save on Thursday) also got an opportunity this week.

Baltimore Orioles

In the Mix: Cole Sulser (Blown Save/Loss on Saturday), Tanner Scott (Win on Wednesday), Dillon Tate (Hold on Saturday)

Boston Red Sox

Matt Barnes (Blown Save on Monday) is out as closer for now and Adam Ottovino (Hold on Monday, Hold on Tuesday, Save on Friday, Save on Saturday) is in and is a must-add. Garrett Whitlock and his 1.57 ERA (Win on Monday, Hold on Thursday, Win on Saturday) has also moved into a more prominent setup role.

Chicago Cubs

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In the Mix: Rowan Wick, Codi Heuer (Win on Wednesday), Adam Morgan (Save on Wednesday)

Cincinnati Reds

In the Mix: Mychal Givens (Blown Save on Tuesday), Michael Lorenzon (Loss/Hold on Tuesday), Amir Garrett

Colorado Rockies

Daniel Bard (Loss on Monday, Blown Save on Wednesday, Hold on Friday, Loss on Saturday) has officially been replaced by Carlos Estevez (Blown Save on Monday, Hold on Wednesday, Save on Friday)

Detroit Tigers

In the Mix: Gregory Soto (Save on Friday), Jose Cisnero (Win on Friday), Michael Fulmer (Save on Tuesday, Loss on Wednesday)

Kansas City Royals

Scott Barlow (Blown Save on Wednesday, Save on Thursday, Save on Saturday) currently has the role to himself.

Miami Marlins

In the Mix: Anthony Bender (two appearances this week), Dylan Floro (Win on Wednesday, Save on Thursday).

Pittsburgh Pirates

In the Mix: David Bednar (Save on Monday), Chris Stratton (Save on Tuesday)

Seattle Mariners

In the Mix: Drew Steckenrider (Save on Tuesday), Paul Sewald (Save on Monday)

Texas Rangers

In the Mix: Spencer Patton (two appearances this week), Brett Martin (Blown Save/Loss on Friday)

Washington Nationals

In the Mix: Kyle Finnegan (Loss on Wednesday, Save on Friday), Andres Machado (Blown Save on Wednesday, Hold on Friday), Mason Thompson (Blown Save on Saturday)

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