RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Arnold Palmer Invitational

3 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

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2. Joe Nicely - Scottie Scheffler

3. Spencer Aguiar - Viktor Hovland

4. Matt Miller - Rory McIlroy

5. Owen Vrabel - Will Zalatoris

6. Josh Bennett - Rory McIlroy

7. Andrew Putters - Rory McIlroy

8. Running Totals

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Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Owen Vrabel, Matt Miller and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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One and Done Selections - Arnold Palmer Invitational

Joe Nicely - Scottie Scheffler

Alternate - Rory McIlroy

Keith Mitchell managed a T9 for me last week at the Honda, but perhaps more importantly for the purposes of this OAD contest, I somehow dodged a Daniel Berger victory from Spencer.

This week’s API is always a great event and is so stacked that I won’t even dive into all the viable directions you could go for OAD. Perhaps the most obvious selection is Rory McIlroy, a player that has historically feasted on this Bay Hill layout. While Rory is a great pick this week, I imagine that he’ll also be the most popular OAD selection by a fairly wide margin. While I don’t want to get too cute here, I will make a small pivot to Scottie Scheffler, a player with a skill set that I think is a great fit for this week’s tough and lengthy layout.

During his short time on Tour, Scheffler has already proven himself to be "the total package" due to his elite combination of length and short-game touch. That complete skill set has repeatedly served him well in golf’s toughest tests - including major championship settings and this Bay Hill layout where he posted a T15 in his lone appearance in 2020 - and is exemplified by the fact that he leads this week’s elite field in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds. With a win already under his belt this year, the floodgates could be opening for the young Texan.

Yearly Earnings - $2,341,650
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7

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Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Viktor Hovland

Alternate - Rory McIlroy

I can't promise this last-minute change is not tilt from last week's debacle that was Daniel Berger, but I've decided to go against my early lean of Rory McIlroy and pivot to Viktor Hovland - a golfer that enters the contest with three worldwide victories over his last seven starts.

Hovland's course history of three showings outside the top-40 at Bay Hill might not be exactly what it seems, as the Norweigan has fallen apart in back-to-back years after entering the weekend within striking distance. Those kinds of outlier finishes will happen at a course that is littered with water, and he ranks first in par-five scoring, second in total driving and first in weighted proximity over 150 yards.

Yearly Earnings - $2,691,578
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/7

Matt Miller - Rory McIlroy

Alternate -

Rory has finished inside the top-10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in each of his past five appearances, including a win in 2018. He also enters with good current form. He came in 10th at Genesis two weeks ago and had three top-12 finishes in the Middle East to begin 2022.

We know Rory is a ball-striking extraordinaire but what really stands out to me is his recent putting. He gained over five strokes putting at the Genesis, which marked his fifth consecutive PGA start gaining strokes on the green. If he has truly figured out the issues with the flat stick, I think we can start seeing wins come in bunches.

Yearly Earnings - $726,050
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7

Owen Vrabel - Will Zalatoris

Alternate - Adam Scott

Willy Z is off to a great start in 2022 with two top-six finishes and a 26th place finish most recently at the Genesis Invitational. His playoff loss to Luke List at the Farmers seems like a perfect building block for a young player still in search of his first win. His long irons continue to be phenomenal as he has gained over 3.7 strokes on approach in each of his last three tournaments. His ball-striking is as elite as it gets, and he continues to show that if his putter is close to average he is going to be in contention.

Bay Hill seems to be a perfect course fit for Willy and I expect him to build off of the success he had here last year; where he finished 10th. It's definitely not desperation time for Willy in search of his first win, but it most certainly is for me in this OAD competition. Expect to see Zalatoris near the top of the leaderboards come the weekend and if all goes well he'll be hoisting the Arnold Palmer Invitational trophy on Sunday.

Yearly Earnings - $690,364
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/7

Josh Bennett - Rory McIlroy

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

I would be shocked if I were the only one to make this pick, but I’m going to make it anyway. Full disclosure, I’d really like to roll out Will Zalatoris this week, but I’m hoping to run him out in a field that isn’t quite as strong as this one since he will be playing a lot this year. I’m sticking with a theme that I’ve been running with the past few weeks that’s had some mixed results, but I think probably works in the long run. I’m staying away from deep diving stats and news and noise as much as I can and just looking at overall form and history. This obviously leads me (and probably you) directly to Rory this week. A win and no worse than 10^th since 2016 here, and coming in off a 10^th at the Genesis and 2 very solid starts on the DP Tour, it is hard to pass Rory up this week. If there’s ever a concern in this event it’s that top guys are looking forward to next week, but I don’t get that feeling from Rory, I think he’s focused on winning as much and as often as possible. Hopefully, that happens again this week!

Yearly Earnings - $630,286
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7

Andrew Putters - Rory McIlroy

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

Rory grades out a little lower than I expected this week, coming in at 16th overall in the current model for The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. His SG Approach numbers are what is bringing his ranking down, but his proximity from 200+ yards is near the top of the field ranking. I feel this stat carries a lot of weight in this particular tournament. The 2018 former champion is also a horse for the course. In his last 5 outings here he has placed: T10, T5, T6, 1, T4, dating back to 2017. So, he’s pretty much a beast on this track.

Yearly Earnings - $1,604,400
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/7

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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