Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Arnold Palmer Invitational

I typically write up the intro on Sunday evening, but in order to avoid it sounding like an obituary, I slept on it. A few more cups of coffee and the lingering taste of Sunday's belched-up Berger will hopefully disappear quicker than his final round five-shot lead. It was an absolute roller coaster of an event, with Daniel Berger crumbling down the stretch as a key component of our Honda card and a few more of our guys making triples and quadruples over the weekend to eject themselves from any chance of cashing their placing bets. Long story short, last week's Breaking $100's debut would be better off titled, Breaking Hearts. However, the few hours of nightmarish sleep I did get, has got me really excited to write about this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. We got the Sunday sweat part right last week, that's for sure. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Par: 72, Yardage: 7,466, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Dick Wilson/Joe Lee (Renovations by Arnold Palmer)

Bay Hill is a ball-strikers paradise and is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour schedule. However, golfers who lack extreme distance off the tee (OTT) are not necessarily eliminated from contention as thick rough, and water hazards reward those who find the fairway. Regardless of how you gain strokes OTT, you are one step closer to succeeding here. The four Par 3s range between 199 and 231 yards on the scorecard, resulting in proximity from 200-225 popping as the only range significantly above tour average. We will be looking to pick invitees who excel in general approach play (SG: APP), with a slight emphasis on 150-225 proximity numbers.

Par-5 scoring will be another key stat as they are the only four holes that play consistently under par. If you are unable to capitalize on these holes, Bay Hill will play as Bay Mountain. The remaining 14 holes all play to par or worse, highlighted by green in regulation numbers five percent lower than tour average. With greens being relatively more difficult to hit, strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG) is another important metric to consider this week. Course history will be our final measuring stick when making decisions, as Bay Hill history has one of the stronger predictive correlations on tour. Strokes gained putting on Bermuda surfaces will be an added bonus, but as Sepp Straka proved last week, a spike putting week is at many tour pros' fingertips.

In summary, we are looking for golfers with great numbers in most of the below criteria:

• Model Rank
• Strokes gained off the tee (SG: OTT)
• Strokes gained on approach (SG: APP)
• Par 5 scoring
• Strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG)
• Course History

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. Betting on outrights is extremely difficult and requires a lot to go right, so we are keeping our exposure in this market as small as we can, while still optimizing the opportunity to have a horse in the race down the stretch.

We were a plugged lie, monsoon, and a mid-swing-goose-attack away from our 16-1 Daniel Berger ticket cashing last week. In all seriousness, it seems his nerves got the best of him on Sunday, which is surprising, considering how locked in he was for his win at Pebble about a year ago.

Viktor Hovland ($9 @ +1600, +1800 on DK)

Taking a favorite at the top of the outright board shortens the number of names we place on our outright card, but just like Berger last week, there is a lot that we like about Viktor Hovland's game that makes his premium betting odds palatable. Hovland has hoisted three trophies in his last seven starts around the world. He is putting incredibly and his ball-striking numbers are exceptional, all contributing to his second overall ranking in my model. His OTT game is seventh in the field as a result of his accuracy and distance. The ever-smiling Norweigen is probably doing so because he knows he is the best in the field from 150-225, which will be really helpful this week. Hovland is also third in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds, which bests his baseline of ninth. His game is peaking and confidence is gushing out of every club in his bag. Viktor's blistering ball-striking has him dominating Par 5s, with only four others in the field playing these lengthy holes more efficiently.

If his game were to be leaking a little oil, it would be around the green, where he occasionally slips and stumbles. It is the only element of his game that is concerning, but in his three starts at Bay Hill, he has gained ARG twice. Hovland's demeanor on the course seems to have made peace with the fact that he will have slightly lengthier par saves when he does miss the green. He has three finishes in the 40s at Bay Hill, which is not ideal from a course history perspective, but the young Norwegian did hold a share of third-place at the halfway mark of this tournament last year, and the Viktor Hovland entering this week's API is now ranked third in the Official World Golf Rankings, playing the best golf of his young career.

• Model Rank: #2
• SG: OTT: #7
• SG: APP: #9
• Par 5 scoring: #5 
• SG:ARG: #107
• Course History: #49

 Sergio Garcia ($2.45 @ +5000)

The very first thing that pops into my mind when thinking about Sergio Garcia, is his ability to throw darts with his woods from 250+ yards out. He is incredible from this range, with his proximity rankings improving from average to exceptional, the further he finds himself from 150. Over two-thirds of approach shots at Bay Hill take place from 150+ yards, which really suits his approach profile. His overall approach game is solid, ranking 41st. Unsurprisingly, he is runner-up to Jon Rahm in Par 5 scoring, catalyzed by his impressive OTT ranking of fifth. He is an exceptional ball-striker and a lot about his game sets him up for success at a track like Bay Hill.

I had to blow the dust off his API course history, with his most recent round taking place in 2013. In his eight starts at Arnie's tournament, he has notched up four top-10s, gaining over a stroke per round on the field in every single start. In three of those starts, he gained a promising 0.5 strokes per round on the greens, which has proven to be his Achilles heel throughout his career. As the 12th ranked golfer in my model, +5000 is really good value on the Spanish veteran who checks a lot of boxes.

• Model Rank: #12
• SG: OTT: #5
• SG: APP: #41
• Par 5 scoring: #2
• SG:ARG: #40
• Course History: 8th '11, T5 '07, T10 '06, T8 '05

Cameron Young ($1.55 @ +8000)

Think Bryson DeChambeau, but at triple the odds. Cameron Young burst onto the scene this year with second-place finishes at the star-studded Genesis Invitational and Sanderson Farms Championship. In his last four starts, he is averaging over a stroke gained OTT, which has him ranked third in strokes gained driving. In fact, he has not lost strokes off the tee in fifteen straight rounds. Like Bryson last year, his controlled length is going to be a major weapon here. His baseline approach numbers are 68th in the field, but he started off with some really poor iron performances to begin his rookie year on tour. He seems to have found something with his irons lately, gaining handsomely in three of his last four starts. I know we are cherry-picking stats here, but with his small sample size of data, his recent results should carry a little more weight than his aforementioned shaky start. He is also 80-1, so there are going to be some blemishes we will gladly overlook.

Young is also capable of gigantic gains on the greens, picking up at least 0.68 strokes per round in half of his 10 starts this year. If you pair his hot putter with his powerful ball-striking, we have a Young Bryson. He seems to lose strokes around the greens quite often, which may be why his Par-5 scoring is not where it should be with his length. However, if Viktor can gain around the greens at Bay Hill, there is hope for Cameron to do the same. If the rookie can capitalize on his length, sink his fair share of putts, and avoid disaster around the greens, he should contend at his maiden API.

*If his odds drift a little, feel free to grab a few cents from Viktor's $9 to compensate accordingly.

• Model Rank: #36
• SG: OTT: #3
• SG: APP: #68
• Par 5 scoring: #75
• SG:ARG: #108
• Course History: Rookie

First-Round Leaders

FRL bets are typically placed on explosive golfers who are capable of firing a low score on any given day but might struggle to consistently put four rounds together. A similar outright betting structure is in place for FRLs. We have nine events to break even, betting $12 to net $110 or more.

Sergio Garcia ($2.50 @ +5000)

With his putter typically being his main weakness, Sergio is a prime first-round leader candidate. He is 17th in Birdie or Better percentage (BoB%) in this field, which is a stat that plays a considerable role when betting FRLs. His two best rounds this season have come in round one, gaining 3.95 and 5.28 total strokes at the CJ Cup and Mayakoba. If he gets hot with the putter for a day and knocks a few fairway woods close for tap-in eagles, why not do it on Thursday?

Viktor Hovland ($3.75 @ +3300)

Hovland shot -7 and -6 in back-to-back rounds at a difficult Riveria. He is not afraid to go low. The world number three is explosive in every major statistical category and is third in BoB%. He may lose strokes around the greens, but he also holed a greenside bunker shot for eagle at The Hero, so he is capable of a magic touch around the greens for a single round.

Cameron Young ($1.75 @ +7000)

Making the cut at the Honda bogey-fest hurt Young's BoB%, dropping him from seventh to 12th on the 2022 season-long tour rankings. He is still one of the top birdie makers in the field, circling a score 27.45% of the time. If he can avoid a few errant chips for a day, he has the fire-power to contend for a Thursday lead.

Cameron Tringale ($1.90 @ +6600)

Cameron Tringale must have an agreement to spend every other weekend in 2022 with his fitness-model wife. His last seven results: T13, MC, T3, MC, T7, MC, T2. If he is not relaxing with Mrs. Tringale, he is racking up top-20s. He made the cut at The Genesis but took the Honda off, so maybe he will be allowed to play the weekend in back-to-back starts. Regardless, all we need is his incredible tee-to-green game to support a putter that has gained half a stroke on Thursdays in the 2022 season. With a notable decline in scoring on Sundays, Tringale's 18th ranked BoB% is mostly as a result of his early tournament play, which is why we and Mrs. Tringale love him as our Thursday hero.

• Model Rank: #15
• SG: OTT: #60
• SG: APP: #18
• Par 5 scoring: #23
• SG:ARG: #18
• Course History: #34

Seamus Power ($1.90 @ +6600)

Seamus Power has gained over 4.5 strokes in four of his last 12 opening rounds. On Thursdays, he plays with freedom as he enters the week with the 10th best first-round scoring average this season. Power ranks second in bogey avoidance due to his impressive consistency across multiple categories. He has his name inside the top-20 in good drives gained, approach, around the green, Par 5 scoring, and BoB%. Needless to say, he has an extremely well-rounded game that has him ranked ninth overall in my model. Thursdays are his favorite day to go low, so why not capitalize on it?

• Model Rank: #9
• SG: OTT: #54
• SG: APP: #15
• Par 5 scoring: #15
• SG:ARG: #6
• Course History: NA

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Placings

My suggestion to anyone looking to place these bets would be to get signed up with FanDuel Sportsbook. Their placing odds are usually 30+ points higher than the rest of the industry. Over time, this makes a massive difference. When betting placings, we have a slightly different approach to outrights and FRLs. We will be incorporating putting into our golfer power ranking, as players like Keegan Bradley would pop for top-20s all the time if we don't include some accountability for the flat stick.

We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s. Odds range from +110 to +320 so two of the five guys we bet need to cash to make a profit.

Viktor Hovland (T20: $15 @ +110 on DK, -110 on FD)

He has six top-20s in his last nine starts. If we see the ball-striking performance that we have now become accustomed to, Viktor should be contending for the lead, making a T20 an afterthought, hopefully.

Hideki Matsuyama (T20: $15 @ +130 on DK, +105 on FD )

Hideki Matsuyama has three top-20s in his last five starts, looking to bounce back from a poor showing at the Genesis. Hideki ranks inside the top-20 in EVERY category we are considering this week! It makes me wonder why we don't have an outright on him, but then we remember why Viktor is always smiling. His putting is historically horrendous, but he has gained on the greens in three of his last four starts which is really promising. With a lot of shots coming from 200+ I can't help but recall Hideki's walk-off 277 yard three wood to three feet in the playoff at Waialae.

• Model Rank: #3
• SG: OTT: #6
• SG: APP: #5
• Par 5 scoring: #5
• SG:ARG: #20
• Course History: #12

Will Zalatoris (T20: $15 @ +130 on DK and +135 FD)

After what seems to have been a much-needed Christmas break, Will Zalatoris has finished T6, second and T26 in his last three starts. Zalatoris has gained a whopping two strokes per round tee-to-green, in his three starts this year. He has lost over 0.4 strokes per round on the greens in all three of those events. With a putting stroke, that looks like he is having a stroke, I am not surprised. However, it seems he has come to terms with his putting deficiencies and continues to just produce quality ball-striking performances weekly. Other than his slightly above average ARG game, Zalatoris ranks inside the top 12 in every other important category this week. If he sells his soul to sneak his putter into the positives, which seems very unlikely, he could win it all.

• Model Rank: #6
• SG: OTT: #12
• SG: APP: #2
• Par 5 scoring: #11
• SG:ARG: #37
• Course History: #7

Seamus Power (T20: $12.50 @ +200 on DK, +320 on FD)

If he can contend as a first-round leader, he should be well on his way to racking up his EIGHTH top-20 in 11 starts. He is coming off back-to-back missed cuts as a result of some short-game misadventures, driving his top-20 odds to +320 on FanDuel. We are getting three-to-one odds on an incredibly well-rounded golfer who has finished T20 in seven of his last 10 starts!

*Note the massive odds discrepancy between FD and DK.

Cameron Tringale (T20: $12.50 @ +230 on DK, +250 FD)

If Tringale's wife lets him play the weekend, there is a good chance he places inside the top-20, as discussed in the FRL segment.

The Farewell Fiver

Matt Fitzpatrick (T10: $5 @ +310 on FD)

Fitzpatrick has started 2022 with two top-10 finishes thanks to approach play that he obviously worked incredibly hard at over the two-month break. Not only is his recent form appetizing, but he is also going to tee it up at Bay Hill with top-10s in his last three starts here. His stingy outright and FRL odds had him just missing the card, and the model has yet to correct itself in regards to his recent form for top-20 bets, but with a game that Fitz Bay Hill, we like his chances to crack the top-10 once again.

Honda Recap:

• Outrights: -$13
• FRLs: -$12
• Placings: -$28
• Farewell Fiver: -$5
• Total: -$58

For those of you, like me, who are a little disheartened by last week's results, know that a successful betting process should be profitable over time and we are in it for the long haul.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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