RADIO
Not sure how to safely tell your wife that you bet on a golf tournament that she thinks you know nothing about? Looking to impress your man with an outright ticket for a special occasion? Living a life of single serenity and wanting to hitch your loyalties to a few golfers who will hopefully be in contention on Sunday? Well, you have come to the right place.
Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Course Breakdown
PGA National, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,125, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Tom & George Fazio
The Honda Classic welcomes the tour that will be migrating from the west coast to begin their Florida swing. The PGA herd will have to adapt to their new environment and the challenges that come with different styles of courses. Bermuda greens and a lot more watery penalties are two key changes that will allow players who may have struggled out west to play a brand of golf they may feel more comfortable with. Strokes gained on approach (SG: APP) will be weighted more heavily here than at most tour stops.
The Bear Trap, also known as holes 15, 16, and 17, is a perfect example of why the stats suggest accurate ball strikers will excel around PGA National. Holes 15 and 17 are both medium-length Par 3s that have their fair share of Pro Vs soaking at the bottom of each hazard to the right of the green. Hole 16 is the lone Par 4 of the brutal Bear Trap, requiring an accurate tee shot, as well as the second of three consecutive approach shots over water. Three 25 yard proximity ranges (125-150, 150-175, 175-200) have accounted for 65% of approach shots at PGA National over the last four years. Each of these three ranges experiences more activity than the tour average, so we will definitely be focussing on this when deciding on our picks.
In a golf world obsessed with distance, PGA National is a not-so-friendly reminder that inaccuracies off the tee can prove very costly. Driving accuracy will be our key off the tee (OTT) metric this week, with forced layups diminishing the average driving distance to 10 yards less than the tour average. Dating back to 2015, other than Rickie Fowler and Matt Jones both shooting -12 to win by four and five shots respectively, no other professional golfer has managed to get to double-digits under par.
Strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG) is a stat category that will be almost as important this week as it was at Riviera last week. The sheer number of water hazards and bunkers around the firm greens, mixed in with blustery Florida winds, will test the players' ability to save par quite regularly. With only two Par 5s, birdies will be tough to come by, making bogey avoidance an incredibly important statistic to include in our handicapping process. Of the top 35 bogey avoiding players in this field, only five of them lose strokes around the green. By doubling down on bogey avoidance and around the green game, we should isolate players who make a lot of pars. Putting is one of the most volatile golf stats, which is why golfers we pick for outrights and first-round leaders don't necessarily need to excel in that department, as a spike putting week is possible for any golfer.
In short, we are looking for players who are great in most of the following categories:
- Strokes gained on approach (SG: APP)
- Proximity from 125-200 yards
- Driving accuracy
- Strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG)
- Bogey avoidance
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. Betting on outrights is extremely difficult and requires a lot to go right, so we are keeping our exposure in this market as small as we can, while still optimizing the opportunity to have a horse in the race down the stretch.
Daniel Berger ($7.50 @ +1600)
Daniel Berger will be teeing it up as the number one ranked golfer in my model. Daniel withdrew from Pebble with an injury, which we assume has since healed up completely. From a statistical perspective, he might as well have been manufactured in a lab looking to make Honda Classic winners. His number one ranking is a product of an approach game that has even the bravest of flagsticks shivering every time Berger stands over a golf ball. He enters the week with the best long-term SG: APP and Prox 125-200 numbers, while sitting in third for SG: APP over the last 24 rounds (L24). It is always comforting to bet on someone who has an overlap of impressive long-term and short-term key stats.
Berger's sizzling iron play alone would be enough to entice me towards his rather stingy outright number, but we haven't even looked at the rest of his game yet. Daniel ranks second in ball-striking (OTT + APP). A beautiful byproduct of this ball-striking is his bogey avoidance, eclipsing the entire field in yet another statistical category. However, Berger's putter has a tendency to abandon him, losing over half a stroke per round putting in two of his last three starts. Not everything about his putter is doom and gloom, as he has gained over a stroke per round on the greens at PGA National in his last two starts (T4 and T36). If Berger can replicate his putting history here, he has all the assets to take down The Honda Classic.
- SG: APP: #1
- Prox 125-200: #1
- Driving accuracy: #18
- SG:ARG: #71
- Bogey avoidance: #1
Russell Knox ($2.50 @ +5000)
Russell Knox ranks sixth in my model this week which is the highest I have ever seen him. His presence in the top 10 of the power rankings is not surprising though, as only Mito Pereira and Matthew NeSmith sit between Knox and Berger in SG: APP. Knox enters the week with more confidence in his irons than Harry Higgs and Joel Dahmen have in their phoenix physiques. He ranks second in strokes gained on approach L24 and fifth in 125-200 proximity. Simply put, Knox knocks his irons close.
Even though he is the 27th shortest driver in the field, Knox still manages to gain strokes OTT as a result of his precision, ranking 14th in driving accuracy. Furthermore, he enters the event with recent ball-striking numbers that are bested by only two others over the L24. Knox has most of the tools required to win, but he is perennially negative with his putter. Regardless of his poor putting and mediocre around the green game, the smooth swinging Scot boasts the sixth-best bogey avoidance in the field, ideal for low-scoring events. With winds often impacting the Honda Classic, Russell's links background and penetrating ball flight should serve him well. At 50-1 we are praying to the golf gods for a positive putting performance to compliment his world-class ball striking.
- SG:APP: #4
- Prox 125-200: #5
- Driving accuracy: #14
- SG:ARG: #73
- Bogey avoidance: #6
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($3 @ +4000)
If Knox or Berger don't get it done, Christiaan Bezuidenhout will be our champion. Unlike Berger and Knox, his ball-striking isn't going to blow the field away, but his short game elegance has been his best weapon for most of his career. Bezuidenhout ranks fourth in putting on all surfaces and leads the field in strokes gained on Bermuda grass. Without super impressive ball-striking, he has molded his short game (ARG + Putting) to be the best in the field, ahead of fellow countryman and short-game wizard, Louis Oosthuizen.
Christiaan's OTT numbers are crippled by a severe lack of distance, with his accuracy not offsetting distance enough to gain strokes OTT regularly. His distance deficiency should be slightly neutralized with a few forced layups around the Jack Nicklaus designed course. The Genesis Invitational was an absolute disaster for my fellow South African, who managed to gain strokes with his irons for the fourth time in his last five starts. He sadly lost strokes in all other major departments. Although he is not necessarily renowned as a great iron player, he ranks second behind Berger in proximity 125-200. In fact, from 125-150, 150-175, and 175-200 he places first, sixth, and 99th respectively. His drop-off in accuracy from 175+, relative to his shorter irons, is staggering. If Bezuidenhout can contribute on the ball striking front, his short game will hopefully keep him in contention late into Sunday afternoon.
- SG:APP: #37
- Prox 125-200: #2
- Driving accuracy: #35
- SG:ARG: #6
- Bogey avoidance: #58
First-Round Leaders
FRL bets are typically placed on explosive golfers who are capable of firing a low score on any given day but might struggle to consistently put four rounds together. A similar outright betting structure is in place for FRLs. We have nine events to break even, betting $12 to net $110 or more.
Daniel Berger ($4.50 @ +2800)
Daniel Berger ranks sixth in the field for birdie or better percentage, courtesy of the incredible iron play he displays weekly. Birdies play an important role in securing an FRL ticket. Everything else mentioned about his outright potential is also applicable to his FRL bet.
Russell Knox ($2 @ +6500)
At a better number for FRL than outright, Russell Knox will be on the FRL card too. As mentioned above, he has a noticeable putting deformity that we chose to ignore for the outright bet. Russell can hit everything under the sun to 15 feet. All we are hoping for is a single positive putting performance to pair with his exceptional ball striking which we have now come to expect.
Mito Pereira ($2.50 @ +5000)
Mito Pereira was on the shortlist to make the outright card, but instead, finds himself on the FRL card in place of Bezuidenhout. We are embracing Mito's volatility as a player for this bet. He seems to be in the middle of an identity crisis from a statistical perspective. The first half of his rookie season on the PGA Tour was highlighted by an immaculate display of ball striking, voided by poor putting performances. Since the Houston Open, Mito has averaged over a stroke per round on the greens, subbing out his ball-striking for a white-hot putter that has him sitting in second place SG:P L24. If we get one great Thursday of ball striking to tango with his primed putter, there is a really good chance he clinches a FRL ticket for us.
- SG:APP: #3
- Prox 125-200: #97
- Driving accuracy: #12
- SG:ARG: #11
- Bogey avoidance: #51
- SG:P L24: #2
Billy Horschel ($3 @ +4000)
Billy Horschel is not your typical ball-striker, but he possesses the rare ability to pop with his irons while making a lot of putts in the same round. In between rambling to himself the entire round, he is the fourth-best putter in the field L24 and a top 10 short-game honoree. Billy's strokes gained approach bar graph has more up and downs than a pogo stick tutorial. When he is playing his best golf he hits a lot of fairways, setting up aggressive approach shots that allow his putter to hunt for birdies. His irons are capable of being a weapon, but they also lose him countless strokes far too often. His driving accuracy has been remarkably consistent, ranking 23rd in the field. If we can get a positive Billy, who feels confident in his irons, we should see him towards the top of the leaderboard on Thursday.
- SG:APP: #99
- Prox 125-200: #51
- Driving accuracy: #23
- SG:ARG: #63
- Bogey avoidance: #26
- SG:P L24: #4
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Placings
This is arguably my favorite part of the article, as we will break down some of the logic behind placing the Top 20 and Top 40 bets. My suggestion to anyone looking to place these bets would be to get signed up with FanDuel Sportsbook. Their placing odds are usually 30+ points higher than the rest of the industry. For instance, Sungjae Im Top 20 is -150 ($10 bet wins $6.67) on DraftKings, but +120 ($10 bet wins $12) on FanDuel. That is more than a $5 (50%) discrepancy in payout for the exact same bet. Over time, this makes a massive difference. Line shopping is one of the nuances I thoroughly enjoy about betting. It is the only kind of shopping that truly saves you money if you are a profitable bettor.
When betting placings, we have a slightly different approach to outrights and FRLs. We will be incorporating putting into our golfer power ranking, as players like Keegan Bradley or Kyle Stanley would pop for Top 20s all the time if we don't include some accountability for the flat stick.
We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s and two T40 bets. The odds associated with each bet imply that we need roughly three of the seven bets to cash, in order to make a tidy profit in the placing market.
Chris Kirk (T20: $10 @ +280 on DK, +320 on FD)
Chris Kirk is absolutely adored by the model this week checking in fifth. He is a modest 19th in strokes gained approach and 35th in approach L24. Just like Bezuidenhout, his overall iron play could be better, but from 125-200 he cracks the Top 10. Chris's OTT and accuracy baselines make top 30 appearances, but both of these stats are lagging behind his L24 OTT, which is a sneaky seventh in this field. He is in the bottom half of the field in distance, so his recent uptick in OTT ranking is propelled by consistently peppering fairways. This kind of form is perfect for PGA National. In general, it seems like Kirk's recent off the tee success should provide him with many fairway opportunities to prove why he is the ninth-best approach player from 125-200. If he does miss the green, the next shot is in fantastic hands, as he is the eighth-best golfer around the greens. If a specific Kirk stat is not found in the Top 10, it is most likely in the 30s where he finds his Bermuda putting rank. With an impressive assortment of key categories all inside the top 40, it comes as no surprise to see Chris Kirk as the second-ranked golfer in bogey avoidance. Okay, I was surprised, but it makes complete sense now that I have digested this information. With a T25 here last year and a T14 at WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago, +280 is a great number for a Kirk Top 20.
- SG:APP: #19
- Prox 125-200: #9
- Driving accuracy: #32
- SG:ARG: #8
- Bogey avoidance: #2
- SG:P Bermuda: #33
Russell Knox (T20: $10 @ +260 on DK, +220 on FD )
Knox may be my favorite golfer at the Honda. Although his Bermuda putting ranks 119th in the field, his elite ball-striking metrics will hopefully dissolve his putrid putting and produce a $26 return on a $10 Top 20 bet.
- SG:APP: #4
- Prox 125-200: #5
- Driving accuracy: #14
- SG:ARG: #73
- Bogey avoidance: #6
- SG:P Bermuda: #119
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (T20: $10 @ +190 on DK, +220 on FD)
Not only is Bezuidenhout's recent approach game starting to click, but his rock-solid short game should also give us all the comfort we need when placing a Top 20 bet at two to one odds. In order for this bet to cash, it is simply a matter of both aspects of his game unifying to create an unstoppable par-making machine.
- SG:APP: #37
- Prox 125-200: #2
- Driving accuracy: #35
- SG:ARG: #6
- Bogey avoidance: #58
- SG:P Berm: #1
Aaron Wise (T20: $10 @ +220 on DK and FD)
Aaron Wise is a remarkable story about a boy and a broomstick. His strokes gained putting on Bermuda is 108th, but that includes all the putting stats he accumulated before switching to the broomstick putter, which he putts remarkably better with. He ranks 43rd in putting L24, which includes his uninspired putting performance at The Genesis, where he lost three-quarters of a stroke per round on the greens. Prior to that, however, he gained putting in five straight events. Hopefully, Aaron can bounce back to his new self with the putter and continue to impress with his steady approach play. His stat profile is very similar to that of Chris Kirk, who the model has fallen in love with this week. Wise will be returning to a happy hunting ground, with finishes of T13, T35, and T33 in his last three appearances at The Honda.
- SG:APP: #15
- Prox 125-200: #23
- Driving accuracy: #57
- SG:ARG: #24
- Bogey avoidance: #35
- SG:P Berm: #108
Brendon Todd (T20: $10 @ +260 on DK, +410 on FD)
Brendon Todd's ball-striking is below average, as he lacks humongous amounts of distance off the tee. His iron play is also nothing special, ranking in the middle of the pack. As the shortest hitter in the field, Todd may not sniff a single shot from inside 125 yards this week, unless it's his third shot on a par 5. However, Todd's stat profile is the definition of zero to hero. Todd is comfortably the third-best short-game specialist behind the two South Africans (Louis and Christiaan), as well as the most accurate driver of the ball off the tee. He gains strokes around the green quite easily, but it is his elite putting that allows him to make a living on the tour, regardless of his substandard ball-striking. Brendon is the second-best putter on Bermuda and the fifth-best putter on all surfaces. If he has a bad week on the greens, he won't see the weekend, but if he putts to his baseline, he stands a fantastic chance of contending for a Top 20 at four to one odds.
- SG:APP: #59
- Prox 125-200: #61
- Driving accuracy: #1
- SG:ARG: #22
- Bogey avoidance: #31
- SG:P Berm: #2
Doug Ghim (T40: $10 @ +170 on DK, +230 on FD)
Doug Ghim is the first of two Top 40 bets. He ranks 16th in the model and will be a rollercoaster to follow thanks to Bermuda putting that loses him half a stroke per round. Remarkably, he has made eight of his last nine cuts, with his first missed cut coming at the star-studded Genesis Invitational. Doug is actually a really good golfer, who just putts extremely badly. He has the third-best proximity numbers from 125-200, fifth-best approach baseline, 10th best bogey avoidance, and 16th best driving accuracy, all while hemorrhaging strokes on the putting green. If he somehow managed to not lose strokes putting, he would be contending in a lot more tournaments. With putting as bad as Doug's, I want to avoid him, but we will listen to the model. Good luck on the greens this week Doug.
- SG:APP: #5
- Prox 125-200: #3
- Driving accuracy: #16
- SG:ARG: #33
- Bogey avoidance: #10
- SG:P Berm: #130
Hank Lebioda (T40: $10 @ +230 on DK, +260 FD)
I am thrilled that Hank Lebioda managed to sneak his way up the model power rankings to 27th. He is one of my favorite golfers on tour and will start contending for wins once he can avoid mental meltdowns. Hank can get hot with the putter when he is in the right headspace. His great bogey avoidance rank of 12th is a result of his really solid iron play. He has flirted with top 40s in two of his last four starts, but random mishap seems to keep him from gaining any sustainable momentum. Last summer, Hank had a run of seven tournaments with three Top 10s and five Top 20s. He withdrew from the 3M Open when his father unsuspectingly fell ill. He has not been the same player since, with many missed cuts and only one Top 20 in 15 starts. I am really hoping that he can rekindle the feelings and swing thoughts that he had prior to his dad falling ill, who has since recovered. All the stats in the world can argue that he is not a great player, but he was showing such promise last summer before life threw him a curveball. The model seems to think he is worth a shot at a T40 and I agree.
- SG:APP: #21
- Prox 125-200: #63
- Driving accuracy: #42
- SG:ARG: #52
- Bogey avoidance: #12
- SG:P Berm: #60
The Farewell Fiver
(Hole in One: $5 @ +125 on DK)
I live the majority of my betting life through models, calculations, and statistical structures. So, the remaining $5 will be bet on a complete gut play, with the sole aim of rooting for every player in the field on every Par 3. With two par 3s over 200+ yards in windy conditions, it probably won't happen. However, if an Ace is made this weekend, know that somewhere in the middle of Iowa, a South African man will be going bananas in his living room. It's the little things in life, right?
I really hope you enjoyed the read and wish you luck on any bets you place! I thoroughly relished putting together the maiden edition of Breaking $100 for you. Any questions or feedback is most welcome and can be directed my way @TheModelManiac on Twitter.
May the odds be ever in your favor!
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