Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - The Masters

Folks, it is Masters week! We get both beautifully manicured flower beds and golf swings. We get multiple video streams of our favorite holes and watery streams named after some guy called Rae. We get a Wednesday Par 3 contest where generational greats attempt to break their age, while Tony Finau attempts to not break his ankle. Basically, we get it all and I could not be more excited about it!

This week is less about succeeding at betting, and more about enjoying the process and the excitement that betting generates in an event. Don't get me wrong, we are still looking to bankrupt our bookies, but we are doing so with a little more aggressiveness and degeneracy (this week only).

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and "farewell fiver(s)", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

 

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Augusta National Golf Club, Par: 72, Yardage: 7,510, Greens: Bent, Designer: Allister Mackenzie and Bobby Jones Jr.

Augusta National Golf Club is simply, iconic!

If there were one tournament a year that Frasier Crane would watch, it would probably be The Masters. The relaxing jingle, signature holes, and star-studded field are enough to draw annual views from radio psychologists to firemen. It's the lone major championship that frequents the same course each year and interestingly enough, course history at Augusta correlates with success more than any other course on the schedule.

Statistically, the slopey, tree-lined fairways are not as penal as they appear, giving longer hitters an advantage if they can keep their misses out of the timber. Last year 43% of approach shots took place between 150-200 yards, six percent more than tour average. This range, along with recent and baseline approach play, will be emphasized heavily in the model. Although errant tee shots don't often result in penalties, they do make hitting the green much more difficult, evidenced by a green in regulation percentage (GIR%) five percent lower than tour average. As the strokes-gained dominoes fall, a decrease in GIR% puts a bigger emphasis on strokes gained around the green. A polished and dependable short game is essential to avoid boarding a bogey train that can become as dark and demented as The Hogwarts Express later in the series.

With all four Par 5s allowing birdies roughly a third of the time, Par-5 scoring provides the birdies and eagles that can be used to barter with the golf gods when enduring the remaining 14 holes, which all average above par. Bogey avoidance is the second scoring stat that will hopefully help our golfers steer clear of any disastrous scores that lurk amongst the azaleas and babbling brooks.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model rank
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24:
• Course history
• Par 5 scoring
• SG: ARG
• Bogey avoidance (Bogey %)
• SG: OTT

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is typically rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. However, it is The Masters and overexposure is an annual tradition that I succumb to with zero resistance. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $16 of our $100 to net $110 or more. This is 23% more exposure than we usually want to take on, but our thrifty outright strategy of a winner every 8.4 events has afforded us some leeway for this special occasion.

Cameron Smith ($7.45 @ +1600)

Cameron Smith will be looking to imitate Scottie Scheffler's recent run of form by winning his third tournament in six starts. He is a Breaking $100 darling, as we profited off his heart-stopping final two holes to win The Players.

Smith's only apparent weakness is his driver. However, when Cam steps foot on Augusta National Golf Course, his driving confidence flourishes with the wider fairways and sweeping doglegs, gaining off the tee in three of his four rounds last year. Over the last two seasons, Smith has improved his iron play to the extent that he ranks sixth in SG: APP L24. His short game is almost as filthy as his crumb catcher he calls a mustache, entering the week as the best putter in the field. A Houdini-like around the green game allows him to regularly escape from dire situations, leaving onlookers in utter bewilderment. For instance, he hit his ball in the water on 18 THREE times at The Players, getting up and down for bogey all three times.

Another reason Smith excels around Augusta is because of his Par-5 proficiency, ranking first in Par-5 scoring, making six birdies and two eagles last year. He also ranks first in BoB% which is nice to have in his back pocket if the course were to play easier than expected. Cameron Smith will be teeing it up at one of his favorite courses, in the best form of his life, and we do not want to miss out on his first green jacket.

• Model rank: #3
• SG: APP/L24: #25/#6
• Course history: #5
• Par 5 scoring: #1
• SG: ARG: #14
• Bogey avoidance: #9
• SG: OTT: #66

Scottie Scheffler ($7.45 @ +1600 on FD)

I contemplated divvying up the remaining budget over two or three guys in the +4000 range but kept imagining Scottie kicking their butt on Sunday afternoon. I feel gross with two favorites on the card, but it's The Masters and we want race-ready thoroughbreds who create pressure instead of crumble under it.

Scheffler's selection is also due to the fact that Morikawa, who we had our eye on at +2000, has seen a slight regression with his irons recently, and with winds forecasted our belief in the two-time major champ has blown away.

Scheffler's model rank is higher than any of his key baseline stats, allowing him to lean on any facet of his game to get the job done. He managed to collect his first win in Phoenix losing a stroke on approach but gained over eight strokes on approach for his second win two events later. On any given week, Scottie can lead the field in any given stat category. His distance off the tee is going to come in super handy around Augusta, coupled with an abundance of confidence in his scrambling ability if he were to find himself hitting from the pine needles.

With back-to-back Top-20s here, Scottie brings a peaking game to a course he has handled comfortably in his previous two trips. It's absurd to think that we are betting on someone, who with a win, will have four victories in his last six starts. However, Scheffler's golf IQ and on-course composure are the reason he has ascended to the top of the golf world, and ideally, it will be the reason he slips on a green jacket this Sunday.

• Model rank: #8
• SG: APP/L24: #38/#15
• Course history: #19
• Par 5 scoring: #13
• SG: ARG: #16
• Bogey avoidance: #35
• SG: OTT: #18

Max Homa ($1.10 @ +11000)

Max Homa enters the week gaining the 11th most total strokes over the last 24 rounds. Prior to the matchplay event, he had four straight top-20s courtesy of his much-improved ball-striking (APP + OTT), averaging half a stroke better than last season. Homa typically struggles to gain strokes around the green, but also doesn't implode in this department either. He is capable of getting streaky with the putter, which has been part of the reason he has three victories over his last four years on tour.

From a scoring perspective, Max plays Par 5s incredibly well, ranking 7th in Par 5 scoring, affording him an extra bogey or two on the much tougher Par 3s and 4s if need be. Since his win at the Fortinet in September last year, he has yet to enjoy another event where his putter and irons have synced up. At last year's Masters, Max missed the cut on the number, but also now has two years' worth of experience at Augusta to pair with a game that is gaining double the amount of total strokes than the last year.

• Model rank: #37
• SG: APP/L24: #26/#11
• Course history: #50
• Par 5 scoring: #7
• SG: ARG: #76
• Bogey avoidance: #54
• SG: OTT: #32

First-Round Leaders

Golf is a really weird game when it comes to the mental side of things. Some pros play better on Thursday when there is no pressure, while others play their best under pressure on a stressful Sunday afternoon. First-Round Leader bets will be for players who play really well on Thursdays. Typically, if you gain six strokes total on a Thursday, you stand a really good chance of leading after round one.

We are adding an extra $2 to this week's FRL budget as well, for this week only, betting $14 to total $30 on outrights and FRLs.

 Cameron Smith ($5.60 @ +2200)

As the only person to score in the 60s in all four rounds at Augusta, Smith finds himself on the FRL card. His ability to gain crazy amounts of strokes putting makes him a prime candidate to lead after round one.

Will Zalatoris ($3.10 @ +4000)

Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sam Burns were all removed from the outright card to make space for Scheffler. Zalatoris struggling with his putter was a major concern for us when contemplating him for an outright ticket. However, in his six starts with strokes gained data this season, he is averaging 0.5 strokes putting in round one, inevitably losing strokes on the greens as the weekend unfolds. If we can get a typical ball-striking performance from Will, round one offers the best chance to cash a ticket on a man who leads the field in approach over the last 24 rounds.

• Model rank: #11
• SG: APP/L24: #5/#1
• Course history: #1 (2nd last year)
• Par 5 scoring: #25
• SG: ARG: #35
• Bogey avoidance: #15
• SG: OTT: #19

Corey Conners ($3 @ +4500)

Unless something drastic happens to Conners' game or odds, we will continue to bet him for FRLs. His consistency off the tee is top tier, putting him in phenomenal positions to attack pins with his incredible iron play. The fun begins on the greens, though, where Conners becomes more allergic to five-footers the further up the leaderboard he finds himself.

In his three appearances at Augusta, Conners has four sub-70 rounds, including a 65 in 2020, gaining 6.8 strokes on the field. He has rounds where he forgets that he is a bad putter and converts a lot more birdie opportunities than usual, shooting himself up the leaderboard. After an underwhelming performance at the Valero last week, Conners' putter is itching to cash a first-round leader ticket for us.

• Model rank: #29
• SG: APP/L24: #11/#34
• Course history: #17
• Par 5 scoring: #43
• SG: ARG: #77
• Bogey avoidance: #18
• SG: OTT: #8

Tony Finau ($2 @ +5000)

Returning to a venue where Finau dislocated his ankle celebrating an ace in the Wednesday Par 3 contest, we are hoping he can invert his hero to zero status this week. In his four appearances at Augusta, he has three top-10s. His length off the tee and his stellar approach play have rewarded him with an impressive 64 in the 2019 Masters and a 66 in 2021, gaining over 6.3 shots on the field both times. He is one of the few players in this odds range that has the ability to go low around Augusta. His recent form has been poor, but all we need is one magical opening round at a course he has really positive memories to draw on.

• Model rank: #15
• SG: APP/L24: #19/#8
• Course history: #12
• Par 5 scoring: #23
• SG: ARG: #19
• Bogey avoidance: #40
• SG: OTT: #28

 

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Placings

This week's placings will be a little more of a gut feel, as the field consists of a select 91 players. Of those lucky enough to receive an invite, 14 of them don't have any OWGR points, leaving only 77 players with a respectable chance of placing. Most decent players' T20 odds are negative, which I typically stay away from, only betting plus-money T20s. In order to get some plus-money numbers on guys we like we had to go to the T10 market, which, again, is only because it's the Masters baby!

BetMGM pays ties in full, and some of their odds are identical to FanDuel which applies dead heat rules to ties (not fun). Typically FD has much better odds, making it worth sacrificing ties paid out, but it appears BetMGM is being rather generous with their placing odds this week.

We have $70 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $60 on three T10s and three T20s. Odds range from +140 to +275 so two or three of the six guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on their respective odds.

Justin Thomas (T10: $10 @ +150 on DK, +115 BetMGM)

Bold any stat that does not involve a putter. Excluding his baseline OTT, Justin Thomas ranks inside the Top-13 in EVERY key statistic. If we want to get technical, his L24 OTT ranks 11th, essentially checking more boxes than a lifetime UPS employee. JT has finished outside of the Top-20 in strokeplay events this season, once, placing T33 at The Players where he put together one of the most magnificent rounds of ball-striking in "that wind".

Although he has all the tools to craft any shot under the sun, he has somehow not won a tournament since his victory at last year's Players. A slow start or a stretch of average holes over the weekend has left him winless while gaining the most strokes of his career this season. Regardless of his barren win column, his outright odds have been in the single-bullet range for a while, making it tough to put him on any outright card. Finishing Top-10 in six of his 10 starts this season, +150 seems very appealing.

• Model rank: #1
• SG: APP/L24: #4/#7
• Course history: #13
• Par 5 scoring: #9
• SG: ARG: #6
• Bogey avoidance: #5
• SG: OTT: #26

Scottie Scheffler (T10: $10 @ +150 on DK, +140 on BetMGM ties paid in full!)

If we like him to win it all,+150 as a "hedge" to grab his eighth T10 of the season and his seventh-straight major T20 is a bet I feel comfortable about.

Cameron Smith (T10: $10 @ +150 on DK, +140 BetMGM)

More so a Masters "specialist" than a major specialist, Smith is looking for his fourth Top-10 at Augusta in six appearances. Lots of valuable course experience is stored behind that youthful mullet. If he doesn't manage to seal the deal this week, he stands a darn good chance of another T10.

Corey Conners (T20: $10 @ +150 on DK, +140 BetMGM)

Racking up back-to-back T10s in his last two Augusta attempts, Conners gets the same odds as Cam and Scottie, but for a Top-20 finish. After a very shaky west-coast swing, Corey has rediscovered his game and heads back to a happy hunting ground feeling much more comfortable.

Daniel Berger (T20: $10 @ +140 on DK, +110 BetMGM)

With 31 points as our threshold to ditch the less lucrative ties-in-full odds, we still like +110 (ties in full) on Berger T20 bets. Berger enters the week with three T20s in his last four starts, which is impressive form heading into an event that typically rewards confident competitors. DB should continue vibing around the greens, as he leads the tour in scrambling percentage.

• Model rank: #16
• SG: APP/L24: #7/#19
• Course history: #40
• Par 5 scoring: #28
• SG: ARG: #55
• Bogey avoidance: #1
• SG: OTT: #25

Seamus Power (T30: $10 @ +150 on FD)

Playing in his first major, Seamus' statistical profile reminds me a lot of Daniel Berger. After a trio of missed cuts, Power found a spark at The Players (T33) and played with Irish intensity at Match Play that Padraig Harington would have enjoyed on his Ryder Cup squad last year. Prior to his three-start skid, Seamus rattled off seven T20s in eight starts which doesn't get enough respect and we are going to take advantage of that again this week with a juicy T30 bet. Fingers crossed.

• Model rank: #20
• SG: APP/L24: #30/#87
• Course history: Newbie
• Par 5 scoring: #16
• SG: ARG: #10
• Bogey avoidance: #4
• SG: OTT: #45

The Farewell Fiver(s)

Hole In Ones! All Of Them!

($2 R1 +800, $2 R2 +800, $2 R3 +1000, $4 R4 +140, $2 two or more +150 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Brace yourself. A lot of ACE energy is about to show up at the party. We are betting an ACE for each round and for two or more to take place over the tournament. If Cam, Scottie, and Max all eject and we are out of the running early, we still have something to root for that could get cashed by any golfer. If an ACE is sniped early in the day, betting on "two or more" extends the degeneracy so the party isn't over early. This has nothing to do with strategy or logic, as it is pure gambling for entertainment, which we indulge in once a year. The Masters app has a stream of all four Par 3s which I will have on a TV at all times.

Valero Recap:

• Outright: -$13
• FRL: -$12
• Placings: -$14
• Farewell Fiver: -$5
• Total: -$44
• Season Total: +$10

We are sliding towards a losing series if this week doesn't produce the desired results. But, we have come close to hitting a FRL multiple times so far, so maybe this week we finally grab one. This week is all about enjoying an amazing event, cheering for ACES, and hopefully making some money in a way more exciting manner than usual.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

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