Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Valero Texas Open

Scottie Scheffler is a menace. In fact, after just five weeks, Breaking $100 has an elite club called "Scottie's Notties" for our outright's that have finished second to the new world No. 1. Kevin Kisner (Match Play) and Viktor Hovland (API) have both finished runner-up to Scheffler who has officially gone rogue, winning three of his last five events. We are salty and slightly traumatized, but we are also in absolute awe of a confident and fearless super-star. Scheffler is just short of mastering all the elements, winning in Phoenix (fire), Florida (water), and Texas (air/wind), with his sights now locked in on The Masters, one of the greatest tournaments on "earth". Simply put, he can win anywhere and in any conditions, which is a very scary thought given his current form.

Last week produced our best losing week of the series, profiting off of group winners (Kisner +333 and Seamus Power +350), with our outrights and farewell fiver both barely missing. Five weeks in and we are still profitable on the season. A more detailed breakdown of Match Play bets is at the end of the article.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.

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You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

 

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC San Antonio (Copperhead), Par: 72, Yardage: 7,438, Greens: Bermuda (Poa Trivialis overseed), Designer: Greg Norman

This week the tour heads to TPC San Antonio, hosting the second of two Texas stops. With fewer water hazards than the Florida courses we saw a few weeks ago, this Texas track has speedy, dry fairways that offer a little more leeway for errant tee shots. Tiered greens do their best to induce three putts from those who lack control with their approach shots. The average green in regulation percentage is 7% less than tour average, limiting the number of holes vulnerable to birdie barrages and emphasizing the importance of a tidy short game.

The four Par 5s all give up birdies more than 20% of the time, making Par 5 scoring essential on this tough course. Although birdies can be made on the Par 5s, there are seven holes that see bogeys from more than 20% of the field, making it important for players to avoid bogeys while capitalizing on the risk-reward holes.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model rank
• Recent strokes gained on approach (SG: APP L24)
• Par 5 scoring
• Short game (SG: ARG + SG: Putting)
• Bogey avoidance (Bogey %)
• Good drives gained (GD%)

 

Outrights

Five of the six outright picks this week were derived by filtering my model on recent approach play, baseline short game, and baseline good drives gained. These players have a knack for putting the ball in play off the tee, are all peaking with their irons, and have historically been very solid chippers and putters. The only player from this filtering exercise that did not make the card is Jordan Spieth who is a spendy +1600. We have bet guys in this range before, but Spieth has not shown us enough consistency to put most of our outright budget on him.

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. Betting on outrights is extremely difficult and requires a lot to go right, so we are keeping our exposure in this market as small as we can, while still optimizing the opportunity to have a horse in the race down the stretch.

Adam Hadwin ($3.45 @ +3500)

Adam Hadwin enters the week gaining the eighth-most strokes on approach over the last 24 rounds. The exciting part about this recent development is that he adds exceptional iron play to an exceptional short game. Hadwin ranks second in short game, consistently gaining around the greens and with his putter. He lacks distance off the tee but is one of the more accurate drivers of the ball, freeing up the rest of his game.

Hadwin's scoring stats are not going to blow you away, as his baseline numbers have been held back by his average iron play. He does rank 32nd in bogey avoidance, courtesy of his handy short game and accuracy off the tee. If he manages to piece his much-improved approach play with his reliable remaining skillsets, Adam should be right in the thick of things come Sunday afternoon.

• Model rank: #15
• SG: APP L24: #8
• Par 5 scoring: #67
• Short game: #2
• Bogey %: #32
• GD%: #49

Gary Woodland ($3.45 @ +3500)

Gary Woodland seems to have made a resurgence, showing signs of some good golf lately. His 19th ranked recent approach play mirrors his baseline, which is always comforting when short-term and long-term stats overlap. Woodland's resurgence has been catalyzed by a short game that has shifted from average to good. In five of his seven starts this year Woodland has gained with his short game, which has propelled him to T5, T5, MC (The Players), and T21 in his last four starts.

Woodland's good drives gained ranking is atrocious, as he gains most of his strokes off the tee with his distance. However, Gary is incredible with his 2-iron, which he can utilize more effectively around a drier course as he can get a lot more rollout while maintaining accuracy. He has found some good form recently and in a field lacking a lot of star power, Woodland stands a good chance to improve on last year's sixth place with his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open.

• Model rank: #22
• SG: APP L24: #19
• Par 5 scoring: #33
• Short game: #32
• Bogey %: #124
• GD%: #108

Patton Kizzire ($1.85 @ +6600)

Patton Kizzire checks a lot of boxes with top-20 rankings in all key stats not labeled good drives gained. Ranking sixth over the last 24 rounds, Kizzire has found a new gear with his irons, improving on his already stellar baseline of 30th. In his last five events, Patton's worst approach performance still gained him two strokes. His recent iron play is trending towards top-10 on tour which is really exciting for someone who can also putt really well. Kizzire's putter is the reason he ranks 15th in short game, capable of gaining several strokes on the greens on any given day.

Kizzire is probably happy to have escaped the watery Florida courses as he can now comfortably take advantage of his length off the tee. He seems to play better around a more forgiving TPC San Antonio where he finished T9 last year. His scoring stats are also very encouraging as he dominates Par 5s and avoids bogeys better than the majority of the field. With these kinds of baseline scoring metrics and his immaculate iron play, Kizzire has a very good chance to grab his third PGA Tour win.

• Model rank: #11
• SG: APP L24: #6
• Par 5 scoring: #7
• Short game: #15
• Bogey %: #14
• GD%: #46

Sahith Theegala ($1.55 @ +8000)

Sahith Theegala is one of the most volatile players on tour. He is capable of gaining significantly in any major statistical category, while simultaneously losing as many strokes in another. Theegala is the only player who did not make the cut when filtering on our key criteria, as he has had a few tournaments where he has played really poorly. In his short career on tour, he has gained 3.8 strokes in each major statistical category at some point this season, which is evidence that he has incredible upside if everything clicks on the same day.

Par-5 scoring and his short game are two of the more consistent areas of his game, ranking 22nd and 26th respectively. At 80-1, we are hoping that Sahith can avoid the random bad rounds that keep him out of contention and put together four high-quality rounds that he has shown he is capable of at the Valspar (T7) and WM Phoenix Open (T3).

• Model rank: #29
• SG: APP L24: #49
• Par 5 scoring: #22
• Short game: #26
• Bogey %: #64
• GD%: #123

Lanto Griffin ($1.40 @ +9000)

Lanto Griffin has one of the less flashy recent approach rankings of all our outrights, but it is mainly due to an absolute meltdown in round two at the Valspar two weeks ago. After a quick review of his scorecard, an early double on hole two did not sit well with the 33-year-old Californian, as he went on to shoot a 78. Lanto's profile has no key stat that is ranked inside the top 20, but he has shown that he can put it all together with great results, finishing T6, T7, and T3 this season already. He has won in Texas before, hoisting the Houston Open trophy in 2020, which should help close the deal if he finds himself in contention this Sunday.

• Model rank: #21
• SG: APP L24: #29
• Par 5 scoring: #38
• Short game: #38
• Bogey %: #59
• GD%: #77

Brian Stuard ($1.25 @ +10000)

Brian Stuard is one of the sneakiest plays on the card this week. Most books have him priced at 100-1 but Draft Kings currently has a 130-1 as of Tuesday afternoon. Stuard is the 26th ranked golfer in my model and is the 14th hottest iron player at the moment. Stuard is probably so far down the odds board as he lacks the explosiveness to win a tournament, but with a little pocket change left for outrights, we decided to take a flier on someone who leads the field in good drives gained. He has a reliable short game and because of his "steady Eddy" approach to the game, he keeps bogeys off his card better than most pros.

Stuard is one of the shortest hitters on tour, explained by his poor Par 5 scoring rank. However, at a course like this, with three Par 5s that play over 590 yards, a lot more golfers will be taking three shots to reach the green which reduces the disadvantage Stuard experiences on these holes. If Stuard hits a few good wedges on the Par 5s to keep pace with the rest of the field, his game suits the remaining 14 holes remarkably well, which gives us a glimmer of hope that he can win at 100-1.

• Model rank: #26
• SG: APP L24: #14
• Par 5 scoring: #91
• Short game: #20
• Bogey %: #19
• GD%: #1

First-Round Leaders

Golf is a really weird game when it comes to the mental side of things. Some pros play better on Thursday when there is no pressure, while others play their best under pressure on a stressful Sunday afternoon. First-Round Leader bets will be for players who play really well on Thursdays. Typically, if you gain six strokes total on a Thursday, you stand a really good chance of leading after round one. A similar outright betting structure is in place for FRLs. We have nine events to break even, betting $12 to net $110 or more.

Corey Conners ($3.65 @ +3300)

At double the odds of his outright ticket, Corey Connors will find himself as one of our first round leaders. Since 2021 Conners has had four round ones where he has gained, 4.0, 4.3, 5.8, and 7.2 strokes on the field. He always seems to frequent the top of the leaderboard early in the tournament. Conners' L24 on approach is 22 spots worse than his baseline approach of fifth, which he seems to have found again on the Florida swing. If he can carry over his matchplay putting performances into Thursday, with his dominant ball-striking he stands a good chance to cash our first FRL of the series.

• Model rank: #3
• SG: APP L24: #27
• Par 5 scoring: #19
• Short game: #67
• Bogey %: #5
• GD%: #3

Chris Kirk ($2.50 @ +5000 on most books)

Over the last two seasons, Chris Kirk has the second-lowest round one scoring average, including three electric rounds gaining 5.3, 6.1, and 6.3 on the field. Kirk's round one scoring average is 1.2 strokes better than the average of his other three rounds. He plays freely and can go extremely low on Thursdays. His style of play is stress-free, giving him a lot of birdie looks to capitalize on when his putter heats up. With Conners and Kirk both on our FRL card, one of them should be flirting with the lead on Thursday.

• Model rank: #9
• SG: APP L24: #24
• Par 5 scoring: #74
• Short game: #10
• Bogey %: #2
• GD%: #48

Adam Hadwin ($2.45 @ +5000)

We like Hadwin's overall game enough to throw him on our outright card, and we also like that Hadwin has three first rounds this season where he has gained 4.9, 4.7, and 5.9 strokes on the field. Two of those three low rounds have come in his last four starts. He is playing exceptional golf at the moment and would get his outright campaign on the right track if he can lead after Thursday.

Patton Kizzire ($1.85 @ +6600)

Kizzire gained five strokes in the first round of the Sony Open this year. His round one scoring average is the only round he is currently gaining strokes this season. He is a consistent performer on Thursdays and if he can top his Sony opening round he should be in business this Thursday.

Sahith Theegala ($1.55 @ +8000)

With Stuart, Griffin, and Woodland getting the boot to make space for Conners and Kirk on the FRL card, Theegala's volatility and high upside helped keep him on the FRL card. All we need is one fantastic round from the rookie, who gained 6.6 strokes on the field in round one at Sanderson Farms earlier this season.

 

 

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Placings

My suggestion to anyone looking to place these bets would be to get signed up with FanDuel Sportsbook. Their placing odds are usually 30+ points higher than the rest of the industry. Over time, this makes a massive difference. When betting placings, we have a slightly different approach to outrights and FRLs. We will be incorporating putting into our golfer power ranking, as players like Keegan Bradley would pop for top-20s all the time if we don't include some accountability for the flat stick. We are also emphasizing approach baseline more than L24 as we want consistency for placings vs peaking ball strikers for outrights.

We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s. Odds range from +140 to +250 so two of the five guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit.

Keegan Bradley (T20: $14 @ +200 on Points Bet, +175 on DK)

What would you know? Keegan Bradley is striking the ball well enough to have made his way onto our placing card regardless of his poor putting. However, Keegan is currently having one of his better putting seasons of late. The last time he had a better putting average was in 2017. Bradley's tee to green game is one of the best on tour and it appears that he has figured out how to avoid being absolutely terrible with his putter, which, for Bradley, is a really exciting development. If he can avoid disaster with the putter this week, which seems more possible than usual, Bradley should stand a good chance of cashing a T20.

• Model rank: #3
• SG: APP: #2
• Par 5 scoring: #27
• Short game: #81
• Bogey %: #17
• GD%: #23
• Bermuda Putting L50: #77

Abraham Ancer  (T20: $14 @ +140 on DK)

Ancer leads the field in bogey avoidance and ranks second in good drives gained. He is also inside the top-20 on approach and Par 5 scoring. His ball striking is the strength of his game and he can hold his own on the greens. But, Ancer has yet to gain more than 0.4 around the greens in any tournament this season. He is having the worst ARG season of his six years on the PGA Tour. Although his around-the-green play is below average, he typically only loses small amounts in this department, which allows the rest of his gritty game to still shine through. He has five top-20s in his 13 starts this year, with hopes of a sixth at the Valero this week.

• Model rank: #3
• SG: APP: #19
• Par 5 scoring: #18
• Short game: #37
• Bogey %: #2
• GD%: #1
• Bermuda L50: #18

Chris Kirk (T20: $14 @ +170 on Points Bet, +140 on DK )

As we discussed for Kirk's FRL ticket, he is second in bogey avoidance and thrives on keeping his golf ball in play, which are both fantastic qualities to have for a top-20 bet.

Patton Kizzire (T20: $14 @ +250 on Points Bet, +240 on DK)

Kizzire sees himself in all three sections of the article for his second straight tournament. With a lot of the world's best missing this week, he has an opportunity to put his fantastic iron play to good use and snag his second top-20 of the season.

Luke List (T20: $14 @ +250 on DK)

Luke List is going to be the most interesting sweat of the entire article. He has assumed Keegan Bradley's role of a perenially bad putter who is capable of elite levels of ball striking. The only event List gained strokes putting this season was at the Farmers Insurance Open, which he landed up winning. If List can continue to pound fairways and greens, dominate the Par 5s, and avoid hemorrhaging strokes with his putter, he has all the tools needed to rack up his sixth T20 of the 2022 season.

• Model rank: #12
• SG: APP: #13
• Par 5 scoring: #5
• Short game: #117
• Bogey %: #33
• GD%: #48
• Bermuda L50: #131

 

The Farewell Fiver

Corey Conners (T10: $5 @ +200 on DK)

Corey Conners was a definite consideration for an outright this week, but we could not get there with odds less than 20-1. There is a good chance Conners is in contention this week and we don't want to miss out on that action at all. He is a former winner here and should be one of the premier ball strikers on the course this week. He has yet to lose strokes putting in his three appearances at TPC San Antonio, which overlaps with his 2022 season average of +0.07 strokes gained putting. Conners is actually putting much better this year, as that +0.07 average is skewed by the Farmers Insurance Open, where he lost NINE strokes putting.

Match Play Recap:

• Outright: -$13
• Placings: +$8.80
• Farewell Fiver: -$5
• Total: -$9.20
• Season Total: +$54

With the model back in action this week, hopefully our placing bets can continue to grind out profits for us before we head into Masters week.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

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