Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Valspar Championship

Cameron Smith you beauty! What a scintillating final round from the wallaby wizard. Smith did not limit the damage with the driver, but managed to offset that by breaking countless Players' putting records to claim Breaking $100's first outright ticket of the series. Smith was also one of the six placing bets that cashed for us. After a rough start to the season, our guys remained composed in the chaos and made us proud. We turned our $100 investment into a whopping $218.53 of profit last week!

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead), Par: 71, Yardage: 7,340, Greens: Bermuda (Poa Trivialis overseed), Designer: Larry Packard

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) will be the fourth and final stop of an entertaining Florida swing. The forecast this week is predicting much more tepid conditions, which should please those who took part in what felt like an extreme weather simulation at The Players.

Tight fairways and forced layups have driving distance at Innisbrook 10 yards less than tour average, making good drives gained our key off the tee metric once again. With relatively small greens, strokes gained on approach (SG: APP) will be the foundation of our selection process. The green in regulation percentage at Innisbrook is 5.5% lower than tour average, emphasizing around the green play. Three of the four Par 5s are the only holes that provide significant scoring opportunities, all averaging roughly a quarter-shot under par. The other 15 holes on the course see a lot more bogeys.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model rank
• Strokes gained on approach (SG: APP)
• Par 5 scoring
• Strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG)
• Bogey avoidance (Bogey %)
• Good drives gained (GD%)

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. With a Cam Smith win last week, we have theoretically stashed away five events of "rainy day" money for outrights. Essentially, we now have 13 events we can go winless in the outright market before we need to hit a winner to break even again.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $12 of our $100 to net $110 or more. Betting on outrights is extremely difficult and requires a lot to go right, so we are keeping our exposure in this market as small as we can, while still optimizing the opportunity to have a horse in the race down the stretch.

Collin Morikawa ($10 @ +1200)

Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas are a close first and second in my model, with Viktor Hovland slightly further back in third. All three of these studs had our attention for this week's high-priced favorite play. We went with Morikawa because he missed the cut at The Players, leaving him much less fatigued mentally and physically compared to JT and Hovland. On their best day, either of the three can be the premier iron player on tour.

When looking for something to tip the scales, Collin has both of his fellow-favorites beat in good drives gained, as he is one of the most accurate drivers on tour. Although Collin isn't the best ARG, when he is contending he brings enough to the table. He is a really volatile putter, capable of gaining and losing significantly with the flat stick any given week. Morikawa also has slightly better odds which made picking him over the other two superstars a little easier.

Morikawa will be making his Valspar debut at a golf course that fits his skillset like a glove on paper. From a ball-striking standpoint, Morikawa is first in approach and fifth in good drives gained. He should be in the fairway more than most, compounding his accurate iron play.  His exceptional ball-striking translates to his scoring stats, as he ranks second in Par 5 scoring and fourth in bogey avoidance. Excluding his average short game, he is top-five in every other key metric, giving the world No. 2 all the tools needed to take down the Valspar this week.

• Model rank: #1
• SG: APP: #1
• Par 5 scoring: #2
• SG: ARG: #41
• Bogey %: #4
• GD%: #5

Patton Kizzire ($1.10 @ +12000)

With Morikawa absorbing most of our outright budget, Patton Kizzire at triple-digit odds makes us happy. He had the ultimate experience on hole 17 last week, shanking his approach in round three so badly that it almost landed on a tree island roughly fifty yards right of the green. He then parred a difficult 18th hole, birdied the first hole, and eagled the Par-5 second, to shoot -1 over those four holes. Kizzire has gained over two strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts. He is in a rich run of ball-striking form which seems to be revitalizing a putter that has never lost strokes in four Valspar starts.

Kizzire is 11th in Par-5 scoring and 21st in bogey avoidance, which are both fantastic rankings considering his price tag. The rest of his game is not great but is above average, which is certainly acceptable at these odds, especially if he can lean on a top-10 iron and putting performance. Patton gained over 10 strokes on approach at this year's American Express and over eight strokes putting at The Players. Putting well is nothing new for Patton who ranks 13th putting and the rest of his game is in good enough form to support a charge to the top of the leaderboard.

• Model rank: #10
• SG: APP: #43 (#7 L24)
• Par 5 scoring: #11
• SG: ARG: #69
• Bogey %: #21
• GD%: #51

Mito Pereira ($0.90 @ +15000)

Mito Pereira just can't seem to bring all aspects of his game together for four straight days. If he does, he has the potential to win a tournament. After an incredible stretch of putting over the last three months, gaining in 14 of 15 rounds, he has fallen apart on the greens recently. It is like flipping a switch though, as Mito is now gaining in the other three departments he was struggling in while putting at an elite level. He has shown he has the ability to gain strokes in any aspect of his game, it is just a matter of how many parts of his game show up at the same time. At 150-1 we are gambling on his irons and putter finally pairing up for a Chilean cha-cha worthy of a Valspar championship.

• Model rank: #61
• SG: APP: #6
• Par 5 scoring: #111
• SG: ARG: #73
• Bogey %: #59
• GD%: #72

First-Round Leaders

Golf is a really weird game when it comes to the mental side of things. Some pros play better on Thursday when there is no pressure, while others play their best under pressure on a stressful Sunday afternoon. First-Round Leader bets will be for players who play really well on Thursdays. Typically, if you gain six strokes total on a Thursday, you stand a really good chance of leading after round one. A similar outright betting structure is in place for FRLs. We have nine events to break even, betting $12 to net $110 or more.

Collin Morikawa ($5 @ +2600)

Collin's consistency on the ball striking front is the main reason he frequents the top of most leaderboards, but he is also known to get streaky with his putter. He gained four strokes on the field in round one of 2022 Genesis...while losing SG: APP! Every aspect of his game is capable of combusting into multiple strokes gained, making him a prime FRL option.

Keegan Bradley ($2.50 @ +5000)

Keegan Bradley is third in L24 ball-striking (SG: APP + SG: OTT), behind Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland. He is one of the worst putters on tour, but we are betting on the chance he carries his zombie-like final round putting from Monday into Thursday. In the 2021 season, Bradley had three first rounds where he gained more than 5.8 strokes, one of them being the 7.13 strokes he gained at last year's Valspar en route to a runner-up finish. Any strokes gained putting paired with his ball-striking makes him an instant contender for a FRL. We hope Keegan hasn't blinked since Monday.

• Model rank: #14
• SG: APP: #3
• Par 5 scoring: #17
• SG: ARG: #23
• Bogey %: #23
• GD%: #32

Cameron Tringale ($1.75 @ +7000)

Since the 2021 season, Cameron Tringale has the highest first-round strokes gained average in the field. He has gained over four strokes in round one, seven times. Excluding his 56th good drive percentage, Tringale sits inside the top-20 for every key metric in our selection process. The biggest weakness in his game is his inconsistent driving, which is hopefully organically remedied by the many forced layups Innisbrook encourages. Another round gaining over four strokes will be no surprise from Tringale, barring any blowups like we have witnessed lately.

• Model rank: #11
• SG: APP: #20
• Par 5 scoring: #16
• SG: ARG: #13
• Bogey %: #3
• GD%: #56

Mito Pereira ($1.45 @ +9000)

We are now aware that Mito has struggled to string together four rounds of positive approach and putting. With FRL odds almost half his outright number, Vegas is implying that the likelihood of a Chilean cha-cha is much more likely over a single round. Cue the music!

Patton Kizzire ($1.30 @ +9500)

Kizzire gained 5.13 strokes in round one of last year's Valspar. He would have had a tie for the lead had Keegan not gained 4 strokes on approach that day. Kizzire plays his best golf on Thursdays and he is currently playing some of the best golf of his season. The strokes gained stars are aligning for Kizzire to sit atop the Valspar leaderboard this Thursday.

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Placings

My suggestion to anyone looking to place these bets would be to get signed up with FanDuel Sportsbook. Their placing odds are usually 30+ points higher than the rest of the industry. Over time, this makes a massive difference. When betting placings, we have a slightly different approach to outrights and FRLs. We will be incorporating putting into our golfer power ranking, as players like Keegan Bradley would pop for top-20s all the time if we don't include some accountability for the flat stick.

We have $76 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $71 on three T20s and three T40s. Odds range from +200 to +450 so two of the six guys we bet need to cash to make a profit.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (T20: $20 @ +250 on DK, +230 on FD)

Three of Christiaan Bezuidenhout's last four starts have been T25 or better. He should lose fewer strokes off the tee this week as he can still hit driver on holes where others will have to club down. Innisbrook requires an exceptional short game in order to feature towards the top of the leaderboard. Bezuidenhout gains the 16th most good drives and has the best ranked short game in the field. His irons have been improving lately which is always welcomed at the Valspar.

• Model rank: #9
• SG: APP: #60 (#34 L24)
• Par 5 scoring: #78
• SG: ARG: #2
• Bogey %: #65
• GD%: #16
• Putting: #4

Patton Kizzire  (T20: $11 @ +450 on DK and +450 FD)

Kizzire is featured in all three sections of this article. The maniac seems to like his value on the outright and FRL market, while the model likes Patton's chances at cracking the top-20. He cashed our T40 on him last week with a T22 at The Players and we like his chances to improve on last week in a weaker Valspar field. His peaking approach play should help to cash another Kizzire placing bet at much more aggressive odds.

Cameron Tringale (T20: $10 @ +250 on DK, +320 on FD)

The last nine starts for Cameron Tringale: MC, MC, T13, MC, T3, MC, T7, MC, T2. With his last two starts being missed cuts, of which we had bets on him for both, he is bound to positively regress back to his made-cut floor of T13. We are going back to him as we trust his game as well as his encouraging T3 finish at the Valspar last year.

Matthew NeSmith (T40: $10 @ +230 on DK, +240 FD)

Matthew NeSmith has the fifth-best approach baseline in the field. NeSmith has struggled to gain with the putter this year, but gained a stroke on the greens in his T21 at the Valspar a year ago. He is more accurate off the tee than he is powerful, ranking 18th in good drives gained. With good course history here and the approach play to repeat it, NeSmith should find his way inside the top-40 this week.

• Model rank: #28
• SG: APP: #5
• Par 5 scoring: #30
• SG: ARG: #101
• Bogey %: #81
• GD%: #18
• Putting: #117

Vaughn Taylor (T40: $10 @ +260 on DK, +240 FD)

Two T20s in Vaughn Taylor's last two Valspar starts make him a horse for the course. Taylor gains a lot of good drives and has impeccable touch around the greens, both ranking inside the top-20. A T7 at the Puerto Rico Open (alternate event) two weeks ago is great momentum heading into his second event of the Florida swing. His stat profile suits the Innisbrook layout and we hope that history repeats itself for another top-20.

• Model rank: #18
• SG: APP: #59
• Par 5 scoring: #54
• SG: ARG: #18
• Bogey %: #29
• GD%: #17
• Putting: #37

Andrew Putnam (T40: $10 @ +180 on DK, +200 FD)

Andrew Putnam's approach play L24 almost sneaks into the top-20 at 21st. Putnam has a super-solid game, not flashing any impressive numbers from any strokes gained aspect, but by summing it all together he makes the 13th fewest bogeys in the field. He is relatively accurate off the tee and has a decent short game. He finished T6 at Pebble Beach in February, a course with small greens, which could also be said about Innisbrook.

• Model rank: #22
• SG: APP: #45 (L24: #21)
• Par 5 scoring: #32
• SG: ARG: #40
• Bogey %: #13
• GD%: #45
• Putting: #35

The Farewell Fiver

Matt Fitzpatrick (T10: $5 @ +250 on DK, +320 FD)

Matt Fitzpatrick had three consecutive top-10s prior to missing the cut at The Players. We will give him a pass in the monsoon and go back to him for another top-10. His much-improved iron play has yet to correct itself in my model, but with most of his drives landing in the fairway and his putter continuing to be a weapon, he Fitz this course quite marvelously once again.

The Players Recap:

• Outright: +$110.90
• FRL: -$12.50
• Placings: +$125.13
• Farewell Fiver: -$5
• Total: +$218.53
• Season Total: +$109.80

After a slow start, we had a major bounce back, so no need for any motivational signoff this week. We are enjoying a fantastic week and then resetting our expectations to continue the grind that is golf gambling at the Valspar Championship.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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