RADIO
Jon Rahm finally found his way into the winner's circle. He had to fly to Mexico without 18 of the world's top-20 ranked golfers to do it, but still managed to get it done and punched his ticket to the Tournament of Champions. It was only a matter of time that his short game returned from the grave to compliment his world-class ball striking.
Tony Finau, one of our outrights from last week, lost five strokes putting in his first two rounds and still managed to make the cut. He then surged up the leaderboard over the weekend to finish second by one shot, but never seemed to be in contention for a single hole. A truly bizarre week for Tony who continues to play a style of golf that reminds me of Pinky and The Brain.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Course Breakdown and Key Stats
TPC Potomac, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,160, Greens: Bent, Designer: Ed Ault, Tom Clark and Ed Sneed (1986), Stephen Wenzloff and Jim Hardy (2007 re-design)
After a glorified long drive competition in Mexico last week, we head to a course with major difficulty, pun intended. Thick rough and tight fairways will allow those with a mixture of accuracy and length off the tee to succeed in the tough conditions that 156 golfers will be challenged by this week. Errant tee shots will put pressure on players' short games as the penal rough makes hitting the relatively small greens even more unlikely.
When in the fairway, roughly half of approach shots take place from 150-200 yards, which will be a key proximity range along with general approach play. The only scoring metric that will be emphasized this week is bogey avoidance, as past conditions at this venue have proven to be very difficult.
In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:
- Model Rank
- SG: Off The Tee
- Driving Accuracy
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24
- Proximity 150-200
- SG: Around The Green (ARG)
- Bogey Avoidance
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. This week we have three mid-tier golfers that check most of the key criteria and three longer shots that have specific elements of their game that provide winning upside.
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.
Russell Henley ($3.75 @ +3500 on Ceasars)
Our statistical darling and model menace finds himself on our card again, regardless of his first missed cut of the season at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago. The only box that Henley does not rank inside the top-20 is strokes gained off the tee, which is hampered by his lack of driving distance (116th). At this course, his accuracy offsets his lack of distance enough to nullify that deficiency.
As the best iron player in the field, Henley should have ample approach opportunities from the fairway to pound greens in regulation, keeping his walks around TPC Potomac boring and stress free. His wedges are the best facet of his stellar approach play, but he is also very capable inside 200 yards. When Henley does miss the putting surface his around the green reliability can secure a par save most of the time.
Russell has not won an event since 2017, which is rather disappointing for a player with his prolific iron play. He has had multiple close encounters with victory, though, losing in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama earlier this year at the Sony. If Henley can dominate in the ball-striking department, at a course as tough as this, he may not need to make the birdies that have evaded him on Sundays to win.
- Model Rank: 4th
- SG: Off The Tee: 52nd
- Driving Accuracy: 18th
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 1st / 2nd
- Proximity 150-200: 7th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 18th
- Bogey Avoidance: 3rd
Keegan Bradley ($3.75 @ +3500 on DK)
Keegan Bradley has gained strokes putting in two of his last four stroke-play starts! For those of you who fell off the toilet reading this, that is not a typo. Keegan Bradley ranks an unbelievable 37th in strokes gained putting over the last 24 rounds. To put this into perspective, Bradley has lost strokes putting in every season dating back to 2015. Pigs are flying, the unicorns are running rampant, and Keegan is gaining with his putter.
The excitement over Bradley's putting is valid because he has been one of the best ball-strikers on tour over the last decade. He is the second-best approach player behind Henley while also gaining the 11th most strokes off the tee, setting him up for success at a difficult course like this. Bradley also has the second-best proximity numbers from 150-200 yards, where he will find himself for almost half his approach shots.
If Bradley misses a green, his touch from around the putting surface is 14th in the field, which is another defense he has against a pesky TPC Potomac. If he continues his recent form, we can bank on him winning the Wells Fargo Championship.
- Model Rank: 7th
- SG: Off The Tee: 11th
- Driving Accuracy: 43rd
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 2nd / 17th
- Proximity 150-200: 2nd
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 14th
- Bogey Avoidance: 24th
Seamus Power ($3.30 @ +4000 on BetMGM)
Seamus Power is a bogey avoidance juggernaut, leading the field in that department. In fact, he ranked seventh on tour in bogey avoidance in 2021 and is currently 10th this season. His recent form is actually in much better shape than the numbers suggest, as he lost -7.71 strokes to the field in one round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He bounced back from that disaster with an impressive T27 at Augusta, cashing a T30 for us in his debut.
Power's model rank and strokes gained total are both better than any of his four major statistical categories, showing that his overall game is greater than the sum of its parts. Basically, he knows he how to get the ball in the hole, relying on any part of his well-rounded game to do so. At a course that preys on any weakness in your game, he seemingly does not have one when he is playing his best golf. If he avoids the many bogeys that lurk in the thick Maryland rough, he is capable of neatly navigating himself to victory.
- Model Rank: 6th
- SG: Off The Tee: 34th
- Driving Accuracy: 33rd
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 25th / 66th
- Proximity 150-200: 38th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 16th
- Bogey Avoidance: 1st
Russell Knox ($1 @ +13000 on DK)
After an inspired T6 at The Players, Russell Knox has cooled off a little. Fortunately for Russell, we are comfortable using baseline stats to justify our decisions. Knox finds himself at 130-1 thanks to his poor recent form, but owns a baseline set of stats that has him ranked 11th in our model. His accuracy off the tee and under-appreciated approach play are what we like most about No Muscle Russell, who gets that nickname from his 119th ranked driving distance.
He ranks fourth in proximity from 150-200 and will find himself in the fairway a lot more than the rest of the field. His fourth-ranked bogey avoidance is an enjoyable byproduct of his steady ball-striking which will both matter much more at this course than usual. Hopefully we can get a little hustle from Russell this week to give himself a chance for his first win since 2017.
- Model Rank: 11th
- SG: Off The Tee: 37th
- Driving Accuracy: 15th
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 7th / 61st
- Proximity 150-200: 4th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 77th
- Bogey Avoidance: 4th
Nate Lashley ($0.85 @ +15000 on DK)
After preaching that we are not afraid of reverting back to a player's baseline during a cold streak, Nate Lashley has a really poor baseline but has the 27th best strokes gained total over the last 24 rounds. Trading in distance for accuracy, Lashley ranks 39th in driving accuracy which will be a very friendly stat to have on his side this week.
Typically an average iron player, Nate finds himself as the 12th best approach player in the last 24 rounds. He has a tidy short game, which is part of the reason he ranks inside the top-30 in bogey avoidance this week. At 150-1 Lashley heads to a course that suits his ball-striking profile a lot better than the Mexico Open, where he finished T11 last week. If he can carry that confidence over into this week, with the way he is striking his irons, he stands a decent chance of contending again.
- Model Rank: 45th
- SG: Off The Tee: 95th
- Driving Accuracy: 39th
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 66th / 12th
- Proximity 150-200: 67th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 37th
- Bogey Avoidance: 28th
Adam Svensson ($0.50 @ +250000 on DK)
At 250-1 Adam Svensson has no consistent baseline to write home about, but he has shown flashes of very good ball-striking on shorter courses over the last few weeks. Like most of the outright card, he is a shorter, more accurate driver of the ball. He has finishes of T26, T9, and T7 at the RBC Heritage, Honda Classic, and Sony Open, which are all shorter, positional courses. Although the sample size is small, he has shown he can play well on these shorter courses. If we can turn $0.50 into $112.50 with a Svensson victory, that would be amazing.
- Model Rank: 122th
- SG: Off The Tee: 134th
- Driving Accuracy: 104h
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 128th / 31st
- Proximity 150-200: 23rd
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 144th
- Bogey Avoidance: 106th
First-Round Leaders
This part of the article is becoming a money pit. We have yet to hit a First-Round Leader in eight attempts. The way we build our FRL card affords us nine events to break even. We have come close a few times this season, but our Thursday second places don't pay the bills. It is now crunch time!
This week, instead of focusing on guys with impressive round one scoring stats, we are doubling down on all of our outrights. If we have a good read on a player for the week, why not bet it for Thursday too? We had a little change left so we added one more dart to our FRL card.
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on seven guys to net $110 or more.
*We will be researching whether or not betting FRL Top-5 bets is a more profitable avenue to pursue, as it allows multiple bets to cash if two or more picks play well on Thursday. It also rewards us for placing second, which we have done multiple times, instead of not profiting at all.
Russell Henley ($2.30 @ +5500)
Seamus Power ($2.45 @ +5000)
Keegan Bradley ($2.50 @ +5000)
Adam Svensson ($0.85 @ +15000)
Nate Lashley ($1.30 @ +10000)
Russell Knox ($1.45 @ +9000)
K.H. Lee ($1.15 @ +11000)
K.H. Lee is also known as TPC Lee in golf betting circles as he has shown an affinity for TPC courses. He plays some of his best golf on these kinds of courses and is worth a shot at 110-1.
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Placings
We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s and four T40s. Odds range from +120 to +210 so three or four of the nine guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on their respective odds.
Corey Conners (T20: $8 @ +120 on FD)
Corey Conners is the first ranked golfer in our model, ahead of Rory, and was a consideration for the outright card. At 20-1 we felt there was better value grabbing a few more guys in the mid-tier range.
Conners' worst finish in his last six starts is T35, including four top-20s. He has yet to lose strokes off the tee this season and has had a very similar year with his irons. At a course that rewards accuracy off the tee and precision on approach, the smooth swinging Canadian is plus money to finish inside the top-20 for the fifth time in seven starts.
- Model Rank: 1st
- SG: Off The Tee: 6th
- Driving Accuracy: 8th
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 4th / 3rd
- Proximity 150-200: 39th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 91th
- Bogey Avoidance: 10th
Russell Henley (T20: $8 @ +145 on FD)
Henley will be looking for his sixth T20 this season.
Seamus Power (T20: $8 @ +210 on FD)
After stringing together seven top-20s in eight starts earlier in the season, Seamus will be eyeing his first top-20 since his weekend meltdown at Pebble Beach in February. His T27 at The Masters was an incredible accomplishment for a debut appearance, which has us feeling confident in his ability to cash a +210 top-20 in a much weaker field.
Keegan Bradley (T20: $8 @ +180 FD)
Bradley's ball striking has carried him to six top-20s this season through his 15 starts. If he doesn't win this week, the current state of his game should make a +200 T20 likely.
Matt Fitzpatrick (T20: $8 @ +125 on FD)
Since the new year, Matt Fitzpatrick has six top-20s in his last eight starts. His missed cuts at the RBC and The Players were as a result of some poor putting. The rest of his game is in really good shape and has yet lose strokes on approach this season. He seems to have picked up distance off the tee since the Christmas break, while still maintaining above-average accuracy. A difficult golf course that requires quality ball striking is a great opportunity for Fitzpatrick to bounce back into the top-20 this week.
- Model Rank: 8th
- SG: Off The Tee: 8th
- Driving Accuracy: 19th
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 30th / 10th
- Proximity 150-200: 101st
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 22nd
- Bogey Avoidance: 46th
Russell Knox (T40: $8 @ +140 on FD)
Knox has seven top-40s this season and is headed to a course that should suit his game really nicely.
Ryan Armour (T40: $8 @ +200 on FD)
Ryan Armour is the most accurate driver in the field. He has four top-40s in his last seven starts and heads to a course that suits his consistent driving and peaking irons. In addition to his acute accuracy off the tee, his 12th ranked bogey avoidance is another reason why he is ranked so high in the model.
- Model Rank: 12th
- SG: Off The Tee: 25th
- Driving Accuracy: 1st
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 53rd / 28th
- Proximity 150-200: 37th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 121st
- Bogey Avoidance: 12th
Kevin Streelman (T40: $8 @ +135 on FD)
Kevin Streelman finds himself as the 14th ranked golfer in the model courtesy of his accuracy off the tee and impressive bogey avoidance. His baseline approach play can hopefully shine through with many opportunities from the 150-200 yard range where he seems to play his best golf from.
- Model Rank: 14th
- SG: Off The Tee: 17th
- Driving Accuracy: 13th
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 34th / 58th
- Proximity 150-200: 25th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 42nd
- Bogey Avoidance: 20th
Brian Stuard (T40: $6 @ +210 on FD)
Although Brian Stuard is the second most accurate driver of the ball, his approach play is the area of his game that has propelled him into the 24th spot in the model. His recent approach play has been really impressive and his around the green play and bogey avoidance are also assets to his game. Stuard is +210 to finish inside the top-40 for the fifth time in eight starts.
- Model Rank: 24th
- SG: Off The Tee: 104th
- Driving Accuracy: 2nd
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: 42nd / 9th
- Proximity 150-200: 36th
- SG: Around The Green (ARG): 26th
- Bogey Avoidance: 21st
The Farewell Fiver
Tony Finau (T5: $5 @ +450 on BetMGM - ties paid in full)
At a course that requires strong ball-striking numbers, Tony Finau is that guy. The putter, once again, may be the reason he doesn't win, but his approach play is capable of nullifying any disturbance caused by the flat stick. It will not be a surprise to see Big Tone at the top of the leaderboard while losing strokes putting.
Mexico Open Recap:
- Outright: -$13
- FRL: -$12
- Placings: +$2
- Farewell Fiver(s): -$5
- Total: -$18
- Season Total: +$103.15
Last week was close to being the perfect non-outright/non-FRL week, where the placings generate enough profit to cover our tails on the riskier bets. Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Tringale both finished just outside the top-20 last week. Had one of them placed, we would have had a profitable week without a winner or FRL. However, we still limited the damage, remaining profitable on the season, with hopes of another big week soon.
As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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