RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Byron Nelson. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Byron Nelson
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Craig Ranch
7,468 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
We get a brand new course on the PGA Tour for the Byron Nelson - one that seems at first glance to favor players that can make birdies in bunches. The Tom Weiskopf design is littered with bunkers throughout the property and figures to need some semblance of ball-striking with a creek that runs through about half the holes.
Be sure to check out Josh Bennett's breakdown for the entire course here at RotoBaller, and you can find the link below!
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Craig Ranch | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm share the headlines at 10/1 and are followed by Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth at 12/1, Daniel Berger at 18/1 and Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 15%
- Overall Birdie or Better 15%
- Proximity 175+ 15%
- Strokes Gained Approach 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Total in Moderate to Severe Wind 10%
- Strokes Gained Total On Bentgrass 10%
- Sand Save 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($10,700) - This would have been the wildest statement of all time if it was written six months ago, but Jordan Spieth brings a level of safety with him after posting seven top-15 finishes over his last eight tournaments. McKinney is just a short drive from Dallas, and the hometown product should continue firing on all cylinders.
- Most Upside: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200) - We are really just grasping at straws here to separate the top of the board. DeChambeau's floor is arguably the lowest of the group, but his ceiling is always one tiny Hulk smash away from getting shattered.
- Favorite GPP Play: No real preference between DeChambeau, Rahm, Spieth and Berger. Ownership should be pretty equally dispersed between the group, and while Matsuyama is the wild card here if you believe he can follow up his Masters win with another quality performance, I can be sold in or out of this entire range based on roster construction.
- Fade: None. As I mentioned previously, ownership should be pretty equally diversified when we ignore Hideki Matsuyama and his sub-10 percent total. The top-five players in my model are the same five in this range, but none of that means we have to start above $10,000 for our lineups. If you were to force my hand on someone I am looking to fade, I would be in agreement with the general public that I am not itching to play Matsuyama. This will be his first start since the Masters, and I think we can look elsewhere for safety and upside.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) -Matthew Fitzpatrick hasn't finished outside of 34th place in his last eight starts, which means something since his finishes have come on tracks of all variety. The fifth-place he posted at the Genesis in February was encouraging for those who question his ability to play a long test, and we saw him come fourth overall at the RBC Heritage - a venue that is more about fairways gained and greens in regulation hit.
- Most Upside: Brooks Koepka ($9,900) - Brooks Koepka is as volatile as they come, but we saw him get his last victory at TPC Scottsdale earlier this year - another Tom Weiskopf design. It is anyone's guess as to how Koepka's knee will hold up for the week, but I don't mind throwing darts at his potential (especially when we consider the fact that this is the highest he has graded for me in a statistical sense in a very long time).
- Favorite GPP Play: Ryan Palmer ($9,100) -I could easily roll with Brooks Koepka here as well, but let's deviate slightly and pinpoint Ryan Palmer, who provides a better floor for safety than his American counterpart. Palmer ranks inside the top-six in this field when it comes to par-five scoring and overall birdie or better percentage, and his birdie-making skills should help him to find success at a venue that is ripe for the picking.
- Fade: Sam Burns ($9,300) - Not a massive fade by any means, but I'm ok with missing on Sam Burns in his attempt to win back-to-back starts. The 12 percent ownership that is currently surrounding him is a lot for a golfer that has shown flashes of chaos, and I think we are seeing most DFS users ignoring the combustibility around him.
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Si Woo Kim ($8,800) - My model grades Si Woo Kim as the safest player in the $8,000 section. In fact, it also has him inside the top-10 when it comes to safety for the entire tournament.
- Most Upside: Thomas Pieters ($8,600) - Can Thomas Pieters control his temper? At a supposed birdie fest like TPC Craig Ranch, I believe we will see just that. It shouldn't hurt matters that he ranks 21st in approach over the last two years
- Favorite GPP Play: Harris English ($8,700) - I mean, I can't select Jason Day anymore, right? It is amazing how often Day finds his way into these articles, even when it isn't his section to be discussed. The Aussie has gained off the tee in his last seven trackable starts, and I refuse to believe he has all of a sudden lost the ability to make a putt.
- Fade: Lee Westwood ($8,500) - It has become a broken record for me discussing Lee Westwood. The price tag continues to be too high for the lack of win equity he brings to the table - not to mention his up-and-down nature.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Vincent Whaley ($7,000) - Is Vincent Whaley actually the safest player in this range? No. But I wanted to provide an answer that wasn't so cookie-cutter and similar to the rest of the industry. If you are looking for a cheap option to deploy into a cash lineup, Whaley's seven straight made cuts shouldn't be ignored. Alex Noren ($7,900) should also be considered higher up on the list.
- Most Upside: Sebastian Munoz ($7,600) - It has been a cold stretch for Sebastian Munoz, but his ninth-place finish during his last Texas start keeps catching my eye. Munoz's game is predicated on his ability to score, and an easier test should play right into his hands. Honorable mention: Talor Gooch ($7,900)
- Favorite GPP Play: Jhonattan Vegas ($7,200) - Just too cheap for the ball-striking/wind play he brings to the table
- Fade: Russell Knox ($7,700) - My fade of him didn't work for the Wells Fargo Championship, but if nothing else, I am resilient in my quest to get this right. Perhaps Knox has turned the corner with back-to-back strong starts, but I am typically slow to move on a golfer that has been awful for a much longer duration of time than two good weeks.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
- Safest Play: Josh Teater ($6,600), Roger Sloan ($6,900)
- Most Upside: Danny Lee ($6,700)
- Favorite GPP Play: Will Gordon ($6,800)
Fade: Nate Lashley ($6,600)
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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