RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Shriners Open. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Summit Club
7,459 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bentgrass
We are back in Las Vegas for the second consecutive week, as the PGA Tour will highlight a course never seen before called the 'Summit Club.' And while the venue is just two neighborhoods down the road from where I live, it must be noted that this week's Tom Fazio design is about as exclusive as you can find in this city. Membership to the facility costs $200,000 per year and finding any data has been extremely hard to come by for those attempting to gather information. Luckily, all is not lost since we should be able to make a few guesses on what to expect, so let's dive into those answers.
One of the things I try to do is figure out what can be proven. That is information like yardage. What is par? What kind of greens are they playing? Those questions start to point us in a general direction that gives us a blueprint of what to look deeper into for the week. That's the easy way to get an initial idea, but I do think we can take it a step further if we want to jump into the mix. Many course architects will similarly build their properties, and Tom Fazio is one of those people. When I look at Fazio designs, there are a few courses that I think are decent comps. Shadow Creek is one, which is the Vegas course used last year, and the second would be Caves Valley - won by Patrick Cantlay a few months ago during the BMW Championship. In reality, you can essentially use any Fazio track for reference, but I went through my models to try and find any corollary stats that stood out across the board, and I noticed most were usually nearly identical each time.
Deep-bunkering will surround undulating fairways and greens. Three-putt avoidance typically means something since complexes are large. When you add to the equation that this surface should be fast because of the Vegas heat, it amplifies that notion even further. Distance almost always has some effect with the venues being wide open, and long iron play helps with the length of the shots in front of us. Other small factors are worth a deeper dive, but this is one of the better tracks we could get for having zero data at our disposal.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Summit Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson lead the way at 12/1, Collin Morikawa comes in at 16/1 and Rory McIlroy finishes the top group at 18/1.
Key Stats
- Weighted Bentgrass: SG Total On Bent + Bent Putting (15%)
- SG Total At Easy Courses (12.5%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (17.5%)
- Weighted Bunker Play - Fairway + Greenside (12.5%)
- Three-Putt Avoidance + Around the Green (10%)
- Weighted Total Driving - Geared Towards Distance (17.5%)
- Proximity 175+ Yards (15%)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Justin Thomas ($11,100) - Justin Thomas is a no-cut specialist, and he ranks first in this field when it comes to scoring on easy courses. I would be shocked if he didn’t take 1 or 2 of his four-rounds crazy low, and he has averaged 5.875 shots tee to green over his last 12 trackable starts.
- Most Upside: Xander Schauffele ($10,600) - Xander Schauffele ranks first in my model and has some experience playing the Summit Club. The combination of bunker play and par-five scoring should fit nicely at the course.
- Favorite GPP Play: Rory McIlroy ($10,100) - The perception around Rory McIlroy's game is about as poor as it has ever been after a failed Ryder Cup performance. However, Tom Fazio designs have always been kind to the Irishman in the past. Rory has gained off the tee in seven of his last eight starts on tour, and while he has lost in two of three with his irons, the previous two accounted to be under one shot combined. McIlroy ranks behind only Thomas when it comes to scoring at an easy track, and I think he should be able to bomb-and-gouge his way to success.
- Fade: Collin Morikawa ($10,800) - I know Collin Morikawa is one of the only players with experience at this course, but I am fine pivoting elsewhere if it makes him the highest-owned player on the slate.
- Most Likely Winner: Rory McIlroy ($10,100)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Louis Oosthuizen ($9,300) - It is not an event that has a cut, but 17-straight made weekends for Louis Oosthuizen should highlight his level of consistency.
- Most Upside: Tony Finau ($9,600) - Tony Finau has a ton of statistical data pointing in his favor. He ranks second in strokes gained total on bentgrass, including being 19th in putting. He is also a good bunker player with the length to take advantage of the wide-open nature
- Favorite GPP Play: Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) - Birdie fests still suit Scottie Scheffler. I am not going to let one bad performance at TPC Summerlin make him irrelevant if DFS users want to make him sub-10 percent.
- Fade: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400), Abraham Ancer ($9,100) - The thought process is the same for both where I think they are overpriced when put into this range and don’t carry as much upside as most DFS users believe
- Most Likely Winner: Cameron Smith ($9,200)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Harris English ($8,900) - Harris English has been playing some of the best golf of his career if we ignore his missed cut last weekend. The $8,000 range doesn't have a ton of value, but English is one of them.
- Most Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,400) -Consider Hatton boom-or-bust, but he ranks 11th in my model for scoring at short courses and 9th in long iron proximity.
- Favorite GPP Play: Paul Casey ($8,200) - Paul Casey's best value comes when he is in the low $8,000s or high $7,000 range because the win equity needed to pay off his price tag diminishes drastically.
- Fade: Marc Leishman ($8,600) - Back-to-back top-five finishes for Marc Leishman doesn't tell the story of him gaining 14.6 strokes putting in those starts.
- Most Likely Winner: Paul Casey ($8,200)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Harold Varner III ($7,300)
- Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,400)
- Favorite GPP Play: Cameron Tringale ($7,000)
- Fade: Henley, Gooch, Wise
- Most Likely Winner: Joaquin Niemann ($7,400)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Carlos Ortiz $6,200, Cameron Davis $6,400 are my two favorite plays.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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