Welcome back, RotoBallers! Martin Laird captured the first leg of the Vegas stretch on Sunday at TPC Summerlin, defying physics with a few of his shots during the final round. Not only did Laird find a way to make eagle from a buried lie near the lip of the bunker, but he proceeded to get up-and-down at the par-three 17th after looking like double-bogey was in play.
While we didn't pinpoint Laird in our article last week, I am incredibly pleased with what transpired. Justin Suh, who was our longshot value at TPC Summerlin, took home a top-10 result at just $6,200, and it helped matters out that one of our biggest fade recommendations (Collin Morikawa) missed the cut on Friday. We will look to keep the momentum going for the second consecutive week in my hometown, so let's roll the dice once again.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!Editor's Note: Golf is back! Come join the fun and win big with RotoBaller. Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off! Our exclusive DFS Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections and weekly DFS/betting articles! Sign Up Now!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!
CJ Cup - PGA DFS Overview
7,527 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
We are going to have an uphill climb in what to expect for the CJ Cup this week. I wish I had more information about the venue since it is located in my city, but Shadow Creek is one of the most exclusive clubs in the country, and I can't say I have much first-hand knowledge when it comes to the ins-and-outs of the property.
Originally designed and opened by Tom Fazio in 1990, you may remember Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelson holding their original match at the venue in 2018. It is tough to decipher too much from a matchplay contest where neither man played their best golf, but we still can take a few things away from what we witnessed.
At 7,527 yards, we should expect distance to be an advantage, which is emphasized by three of the par-fives stretching over 570 yards. Long iron proximity becomes something that we can target in our research, and we might want to add some around the green numbers because of the length of second shots. On weeks where it isn't easy to know what to forecast numerically, I like to keep things steady with basic modeling that doesn't get overly complex. The cream typically rises to the top in these shallow field events, and I wouldn't expect much of that to change in Vegas.
Let's Look At The Stats
|Stat||Shadow Creek||Tour Average|
|Average Three-Putts Per Round||N/A||0.55|
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Justin Thomas at 12/1 and Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele at 14/1.
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee 20%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
- Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
- Driving Distance 15%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
- Bent Putting + Scrambling 10%
- Overall Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Jon Rahm ($11,300)
Six players located above $10,000 should give us some semblance of how tightly priced casinos and DFS sites view the top of the board to be for the CJ Cup. I can't deviate too much from the narrative since I have the big five participating in this event as the deserving five choices (in not necessarily the same order), but it does give us a more complex handicapping strategy to consider. Early returns are suggesting that Rahm and Rory McIlroy might be your two lowest owned players in this range, but I do believe it is important to not get caught up entirely in a strategy that tries to fade the chalk. With that being said, Rahm and McIlroy would have been my preferred options in a vacuum situation, which will only help push me into owning a slightly larger portion of the duo.
Dustin Johnson ($11,100) In a week where we aren't sure how many players have prior first-hand experience at the property, Dustin Johnson enters the contest as the clubhouse leader with his course record of 66. That number only takes into account rounds since the Fazio restoration in 2008, but it might surprise some to see six-under par as the best round on record over the last 12 seasons. I don't want to go down this path of making Shadow Creek sound as if it is a test that is going to mimic what we just saw transpire at Winged Foot since the exclusivity of the property doesn't exactly allow tons of rounds from quality golfers, but I do believe the comparison to TPC Summerlin is not fair in the sense that this week could see a winning score that is closer to what we would expect at a venue that isn't yielding birdies in bunches. We know Johnson plays slightly more challenging courses well, and I would expect that we see him use his driving prowess to provide another quality effort.
*** DJ has withdrawn from the event because of COVID.
Justin Thomas ($10,800)
The cat has been out of the bag for years with Justin Thomas' results in no-cut tournaments, and that alone is going to inflate the American to perhaps being the most owned player on the slate. It seems likely that the winner will come from within this range, so I wouldn't necessarily overthink ownership totals to try and be contrarian. However, the decision will have to be yours. I don't have many negative things to say about this group, and you are going to have to figure out what bothers you while trying to separate the fivesome.
Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
We haven't seen the best out of Rory McIlroy since the restart, but I am finding it difficult to ignore his three consecutive top-12 results. I realize it is hard to write home about a 12th and a seventh during two tournaments that featured subsided fields, but that portrayal is exactly what makes me believe the Irishman is undervalued for the week. His eighth-place result at the U.S. Open came at a venue that didn't exactly highlight his preferred course difficulty, and I think we see him use his added length to compete for a title this weekend in Vegas.
Xander Schauffele ($10,300)
When the GIR percentage in a tournament goes down, we typically see Xander Schauffele take some steps above the rest of the field. Schauffele is arguably the best golfer in the world when it comes to hitting greens, and the added distance of second shots should only increase his advantage. The no-cut narrative will boost his ownership, but I can't find too many alarming factors to use against him in Vegas.
Matthew Wolff ($10,000)
BOOO! Matthew Wolff landing inside the $10,000 range means I have to talk about him. For those that follow this article closely, you will know that I don't discuss the American often. I essentially live by the mindset that he is playable when distance and scoring will be manageable and out of play when he can get himself into trouble off the tee. That didn't work perfectly when we saw Wolff come second at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago, but I hate to admit that the youngster does seem to be morphing into a much steadier player. The 21-year-old is still marginally overpriced because of his recent success, but I don't think it is as pronounced as it used to be in the past.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Daniel Berger ($9,300)
Daniel Berger has provided a handful of respectable finishes in a row, but it is a far cry from what the 13th-ranked player in the world was generating right before and after the restart. I do think it is fair to say that some regression to the mean has taken place for the American, but what should we consider a suitable price on Berger? For me, somewhere in the mid $9,000 range is the correct going rate, and I believe we are saving a few hundred dollars at $9,300.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200)
Hideki Matsuyama burned the industry a week ago at TPC Summerlin and should see some reduced ownership across the board at Shadow Creek. I'm less worried about his missed cut than usual since we are guaranteed four rounds out of the Japanese sensation, and Matsuyama tends to be a golfer that can exceed his finishing position on DFS sites because of his ball-striking acumen.
Viktor Hovland ($9,000)
Off the tee success, quality long irons and the ability to score on par-fives is a relatively simplistic overview of what Viktor Hovland does well, and it should help that Shadow Creek appears like it will demand similar traits to find success. The 23-year-old has struggled early in his career around the greens, but we have seen a slight improvement as of late in that area of his game.
Scottie Scheffler ($8,800)
Let's try to erase Scottie Scheffler's missed cut at the Shriners Open out of our memory bank. We can't take much away from a golfer firing a six-under par through two rounds and missing the cut, and it shouldn't be a deterrent while making your builds. Scheffler has shown some flashes of brilliance over his last two events and should be able to find a better rhythm in his third consecutive start since recovering from COVID.
Sungjae Im ($8,700)
It may come as a surprise to some, but Sungjae Im, not Bryson DeChambeau, led the Shriners Open in strokes gained off the tee at TPC Summerlin. Im added to his resume by ranking first in accuracy and greens in regulation, and any improvement with his putter might turn the South Korean into a threat to exceed the expectation level around him at Shadow Creek.
Paul Casey ($8,000)
A lack of perceived upside typically keeps Paul Casey's ownership down in more significant events, and it looks to be the case once again this weekend. The Englishman's $8,000 price tag is low enough so we don't have to worry about what his exact win equity is for the tournament, and it gives us a golfer that should have a decent shot to exceed his salary on DFS sites.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Justin Rose ($7,800)
Ranked fourth in my model compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage, Justin Rose's volatility should be viewed as a positive in this no-cut event. Rose has been known to come out of left field in the past, and the combination of long iron proximity and Bentgrass greens should only add to the allure around the Englishman.
Shane Lowry ($7,600)
After leading through two rounds during last week's BMW PGA Championship, Shane Lowry fired a final round 73 on Sunday to slip into 13th place. It was a disappointing culmination to the Irishman's event, but it should help keep him under the radar at Shadow Creek. Lowry is currently projected to be just two percent owned on DraftKings, and there will be contrarian value to be had for those that are willing to take a gamble.
Bubba Watson ($7,300)
I'm not sure if Bubba Watson's finishes are telling the complete story of how well he is striking the ball. Watson has gained a combined 22.2 strokes off the tee and with his irons over his last four events, and it has just been a poor putter that has held him back each weekend. Perhaps Watson could take a page out of Sergio's book and try putting with his eyes closed, but I wouldn't be shocked if we see it all come together for him soon.
Sebastian Munoz ($7,000)
I am pretty surprised to see Sebastian Munoz projected to carry under 10 percent ownership for the CJ Cup. It has been seven events since Munoz has missed a cut, and while that isn't something he will need to worry about this weekend in Las Vegas, his five top-27 finishes in his previous six events will go a long way. The 27-year-old is a threat to fall within that qualifying zone once again and should be considered a bargain at his going rate of $7,000.
Ryan Palmer ($6,700)
We have grown accustomed to volatility while rostering Ryan Palmer, but an event like the CJ Cup naturally lends itself to taking a more aggressive approach. Palmer is a quality par-five scorer who gains strokes tee-to-green, and it is going to be challenging to find more upside than he presents in this $6,000 range.
Dylan Frittelli ($6,600)
A ranking of 12th off the tee compared to the field over his previous 24 rounds is enough to give Dylan Frittelli a second look, and the picture becomes a little clearer when we peek at his ability to save par around the greens, as well as score on par-fives. The South African has generated six top-34 results in his last eight events, which means we should be viewing him as someone who is underpriced.
Cameron Champ ($6,400)
It is tough to like much about the form Cameron Champ is bringing to the event, but if firepower turns into the name of the game at Shadow Creek, there aren't many players in the world that possess more of it than the American. Champ is a GPP-only option that becomes less intriguing as the ownership rises, but I could be convinced to purchase a share or two at the right total.
Joohyung Kim ($6,400)
Joohyung Kim entered the beginning of 2019 ranked 2006th in the world but has turned in four worldwide victories and an additional 12 top-6 results in his last 31 events. All of this has moved him up to 117th in the 'Official World Golf Rankings,' and have I mentioned that he is only 18 years old? Kim doesn't have enough concrete statistical data in my model to provide confidence of what exactly he is as a player quite yet, but there are a ton of interesting categories that are showing him to be a potential phenom.
Harry Higgs ($6,300)
Ranked inside the top-30 of my model compared to the field in both driving distance and strokes gained off the tee, Harry Higgs is a golfer that can quickly move up this leaderboard if we get handed a course that is moderate in difficulty. Higgs has bounced back and forth between top-15 finishes and results outside the top-50 in his last four events, but his ability to gain strokes with his driver should come in handy.
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