RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am happy to be able to provide an early preview for the Masters! It is worth noting that ownership percentages will move as we approach Thursday, so be sure to keep an eye on my 'DFS Rankings Wizard' model that I will include in this article on Monday.
From a personal standpoint, I will be tweaking numbers leading up to that release, which means viewpoints will change marginally as I run data in different ways. The information I will include below is the initial breakdown I have formulated, but check back throughout the week for updates!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Masters
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Augusta National
7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
After having a Masters unlike any other in October, the tradition of April should bring back the nostalgia of what we typically expect out of Augusta National. The 2020 iteration of the event provided softer conditions and easier to hit greens, which in turn allowed Dustin Johnson to fire a course record 20-under par en route to his first green jacket. While nothing should be taken away from the big-hitters triumph to end the season, you can't help but think that the property will have some serious bite this year.
The Masters always provides us a unique test because even though the field is limited to 90 golfers, the strength isn't quite what you would expect. Golfers 45 years of age or older and first-time participants make up nearly 20% of the players, and there might be reasons to point towards each subsection having very little chance of capturing the title. When we look at Augusta National from a historical perspective, only Jack Nicklaus (46) has won the title past age 45, and we haven't seen a first-time winner dawn the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Distance will always help players gain an advantage, but ball-striking and a hot putter can help neutralize length. That has come to fruition in the past with Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth running wild with their short games, and the firey fast nature of the greens should emphasize strokes gained around the green and three-putt percentage. Golfers will need to score on the par-fives when presented to them, and it will be imperative to avoid danger on the problematic par-fours.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Augusta National | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 67% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 60% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 52% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.87 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Saturday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth at 11/1 and Rory McIlroy at 16/1. I would expect these numbers to normalize as the week goes progresses, so be patient in your handicapping process!
Key Stats (To Come Shortly)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Dustin Johnson ($11,500)
I don't like the narrative this week of poking holes in Dustin Johnson's 2020 Masters victory because of the soft course conditions. Every player was given the same test in October, and it was the big-hitter that handled things best with his record-setting 20-under par display. Johnson's price tag and current form might have some DFS gamers wanting to look elsewhere, but it is worth noting that the 36-year-old hasn't finished outside of 10th place here since 2015. His recent statistical data regarding par-five scoring is worrisome, but there should be a contrarian nature present for those who are willing to take a shot up top.
Jon Rahm ($11,000)
I feel like a broken record in these pieces over the last few months. I don't know how many times I can note that Jon Rahm is the top-ranked player in my model over the past two years, but it hasn't always translated to success in major championships. Some of those up-and-down performances haven't quite shown through at the Masters, which has seen Rahm post three consecutive top-nine finishes at Augusta, but there is a more significant concern lurking than play. Rahm's wife is scheduled to go into labor right around the event's finish, and the Spaniard has made it clear that he will be leaving the tournament once he gets the news. I am not sure how many of the casual gamers coming into golf this week will even be aware of this storyline, but I believe there could be a chance for those playing large-field 150-man GPP contests to deviate outside of the box and take a shot on the 26-year-old. Rahm's upside for victory is as good as anyone, and it wouldn't come as a shock if he got to put on the green jacket Sunday night and still be there to watch his child get born shortly after.
*** Jon Rahm's wife had their baby on April 4th. Rahm is safe for the Masters.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,800)
For the man with all the tricks to crush Augusta National, it hasn't always been the best run of results for Bryson DeChambeau early in his career. The American has failed to crack the top-20 in his four appearances since 2016, but there are reasons for optimism that 2021 might be different. DeChambeau has gone to a driver that he can control better off the tee, and while it has cost him a little distance in past starts, we have seen the benefit of it with his third at the Players and win at the API. From a personal standpoint, I expect this to be DeChambeau's best showing at Augusta, but the question will become: Is he ready to win? To me, the answer has to be considered yes, especially when we know the 27-year-old has already displayed major championship pedigree after winning the U.S. Open last year.
Justin Thomas ($10,600)
In my opinion, Justin Thomas is shaping up to be the chalkiest play in the $10,000 range. We have seen him better his finishing position in each start here throughout his career, and it won't take much more of an improvement for him to land the green jacket after concluding the 2020 Masters in fourth place. Thomas brings the perfect combination of short game pedigree and scoring to Augusta to get the job done, but it will be vital for him to show more life with his putter than he has in the past on the firey greens. A strong argument could be made that Thomas was one of the biggest beneficiaries last year of the soft conditions, and I consider it debatable when we try to decipher if his flat stick can hold up for the pressure of four grueling rounds.
Rory McIlroy ($10,200), Xander Schauffele ($10,000)
I think both Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are interesting case studies for those playing in 150-man MME's. I am not sure we need to consider them in single-entry/three-max lineups, but the contrarian nature of each begins to heighten my curiosity when discussing things from a broad spectrum. I don't think either is playing nearly as poorly as the public perception would lead you to believe, and there is an interesting game theory viewpoint to consider if you are trying to leverage ownership. I don't think you need both to deviate from the pack, but 25-30% ownership on either/or would place you in a position where you exponentially overweight compared to the field. There are definitely other ways to veer away from the public, but it is one that is worth giving a second look.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
This week's article is written from an initial first-take approach, but my gut has been pointing towards Patrick Cantlay getting his first major championship at Augusta. The American ranks first compared to the field on quick/fast Bentgrass greens over the last 50 rounds, and he adds to his potential by being one of only a handful of golfers that has gained 1.7 strokes tee to green over the last three months - a statistic that has pinpointed eight of the last nine Masters winners. I expect Cantlay to be extremely popular, but it seems justified in this case.
Jordan Spieth ($9,400)
It remains to be seen if Jordan Spieth will win the Valero Texas Open, but I do think it is safe to say that he is pretty much back! Look, the days of Spieth dominating the world of golf might never again reach the levels they did in 2015, but it always looked as if the 'Golden Child' would have a closet full of green jackets before his career came to an end. At this point, he is still stuck on one after coming inside the top-three in four of his first five attempts, but I wouldn't put it past him entering the winner's circle again at Augusta. Spieth has a legitimate shot, and we have seen that with his odds plummeting from 70/1 to 10/1 over the last handful of months.
Brooks Koepka ($9,200)
There might not be a better wild-card this week than Brooks Koepka. I can't believe that he is actually considering playing the event after undergoing knee surgery just a few weeks ago, but it appears as if he will give it a shot. Despite not having won the event in his career, Koepka has looked primed to enter the illustrious crowd of winners here in the past, and there will almost certainly be a contrarian route present for those that are willing to roll the dice. If he makes it to the tee on Thursday, I believe he will make it through all four days. It sounds like a wild statement to make, but I have taken worse shots on players at five percent ownership.
Tony Finau ($9,100)
I wouldn't say that I like that Tony Finau lost 4.20 strokes off the tee in two rounds at the Valero Texas Open, but I don't think missing the cut is the worst thing in the world either. In the past, Finau has been brilliant at Augusta, posting two top-10s in 2018 and 2019 but did ultimately fail with his driver here last year, finishing in a share of 38th-place. Initial projections had Finau as one of the highest owned players on the slate, but his back-to-back shaky starts will likely have gamers looking in a different direction. I never want to back poor form entering a major, but I could be convinced if the ownership falls low enough before Thursday.
Daniel Berger ($8,500)
Daniel Berger remains one of the most underrated players on tour. Ranked inside the top-15 in the Official World Golf Rankings and within the top-10 of my model, Berger doesn't always get treated in that fashion when we see him priced for these big events. His 18th-place rank when it comes to DraftKings price for the week signifies some of that narrative, but the 27-year-old shouldn't be discounted after having provided a top-10 showing at Augusta in the past. I have him inside the top-10 compared to the field in both putting and strokes gained total over the last two years, and I wouldn't be shocked if he captures one of the four majors here in 2021.
Cameron Smith ($8,200)
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried that Cameron Smith might be this week's runaway player in the $8,000 range when it comes to ownership. He is the one golfer that continues to receive hefty praise when I mention him on Twitter, and it feels as if every DFS player/tout is starting to make a case for the Aussie here in 2021. I will monitor where his popularity goes throughout the next few days, and I will give him a challenging exam when breaking down my model in a more in-depth fashion on Sunday night. My early lean is that I really like his prospects to find success, but he will have to pass a few more tests before he becomes one of the main prospects in my player pool.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Sergio Garcia ($7,900)
One of the things I like about Sergio Garcia is that he isn't incapable of catching fire with the puter. It doesn't take me to tell you that it doesn't happen often, but we do see it randomly come out on rare occasions - most notably a few weeks ago at the Match Play. Garcia has struggled to maintain his momentum of winning the title here in 2017, but I am willing to forgive his previous two missed cuts. His 2018 performance had just about everything go wrong that could have for the week, and I feel relatively bullish that his stellar ball-striking can get him back into the top-20.
Paul Casey ($7,700)
Paul Casey is going to be one of the most popular selections on the board for the Masters. I do like his chances to find success because of the form he is bringing into the week, but I most likely will pivot onto some of the golfers in the next range.
Adam Scott ($7,600), Jason Day ($7,500), Louis Oosthuizen ($7,500), Joaquin Niemann ($7,400), Abraham Ancer ($7,400)
If we are talking about the event from a win equity standpoint, I feel like every name on this list has just about the same upside for a victory that Paul Casey has at double the ownership. It doesn't mean Casey won't make cash-game lineups for me or be included in single-entry builds, but I like the idea of being aggressive and trying to leverage ownership in other areas. Oosthuizen, Day and Scott would be my three preferred targets before taking a deeper dive, but I like the top-20 potential that Niemann and Ancer provide themselves.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Brian Harman ($6,800), Carlos Ortiz ($6,500), Ryan Palmer ($6,500), Matt Jones ($6,300)
***Plays are not limited to those options, but they are some of the ones that popped in my initial model.
Please note that my trial model is a much more simplistic approach than I will apply on Sunday night. I generally keep a model for all four majors that I make small changes on throughout the year. Harman, Ortiz, Palmer and Jones were four names it liked, but tune into my Bettor Golf Podcast on Tuesday to get a more advanced breakdown of the entire field!
Win Big With RotoBaller
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