RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Down three strokes with just three holes to play, Collin Morikawa pulled off a magnificent come-from-behind victory over Justin Thomas to capture his second career title. I always find it amazing how fortunes and narratives can change with a simple make or miss, and Morikawa's near blunder on the 18th hole against Thomas could have presented us an entirely different story if he would have mimicked his disastrous finish against Daniel Berger at the Charles Schwab Challenge just a few weeks ago. Instead, we are left with a career-defining result for the 23-year-old, who now not only has more victories on tour than missed cuts (2 to 1) but showed guile and guts during the first playoff hole to match Thomas' 50-foot birdie putt with a 24-footer of his own to extend the match.
While the golf was exceptional and littered with storylines across the board, the PGA Tour fell short in executing what transpired. The telecast was available live online, but the main television coverage showed a tape-delayed broadcast hours after the event had already been completed. It was a big missed opportunity that the PGA Tour was handed on a silver platter of showcasing three of the elite young players in the game in one pairing, and it continues to be the bane of their existence from a viewer perspective.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Memorial
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!
Memorial - PGA DFS Overview
Muirfield Village
7,392 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
There is no doubt that Muirfield Village hosting an event for two weeks in a row will provide some of the same feel and nuances that we saw at the Workday Charity Open, but it is lazy reporting if we assume things will be run back in the same manner that we just saw ensue. If we are looking for similarities, Muirfield Village showed off its teeth as a ball-strikers course above all else, which is something that we should go back to in the second week of action, even if the general feel and design could be substantially different.
The venue will play 60 yards shorter than it did just a week ago, but the tangible disparity should come down to the rough and texture of the greens. Last week, I noted how extra moisture would be added to the putting surface to allow two weeks of golf to take place at one location, but we are no longer in the danger zone of having to "protect" against a dried out surface. I expect we see the speed turned up a few notches, making putting a much more challenging proposition for the week.
On top of that, reports have stated that the rough will not be touched entering the Memorial. We heard rumors that things were mowed down marginally before the first event, but enhanced growth will emphasize finding the fairways, as well as heighten the skillset needed to discover success around the greens. The bunkers are already tricky when out of position anywhere near the putting surface, and we should see a more complicated test throughout. The 13 water hazards and 73 bunkers will still loom as a considerable threat to the players, and par-five scoring will continue to be a necessity.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Muirfield Village | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 283 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 68% | 60% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 53% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.52 | 0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 11/1, Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy at 14/1 and Dustin Johnson at 16/1.
Key Stats
- Ball Striking 20%
- Par-Five BoB + Prox 200+ Yards 20%
- Par-Four Average + Bogey Avoidance 17.5%
- Prox 150-200 Yards 15%
- Strokes Gained Approach + Bent Putting 15%
- Sand Save Percentage + ATG 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100)
A victory by Justin Thomas last weekend might have been enough to bump Bryson DeChambeau down the pecking order, but as things currently stand, the 'Mad Scientist' leads off the DraftKings board at a price tag of $11,100. A combination of DeChambeau's current form mixed with his victory at Muirfield Village in 2018 didn't hurt the notion of placing the big-hitter up top either, but is the price tag deserving? In a nutshell, yes. DeChambeau is the hottest player in the world, and the ascension over the likes of Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas might be enough for some to look the other way for the week. If that happens, a lower owned DeChambeau provides the opportunity for GPP success for those willing to pay the cost.
Justin Thomas ($10,900)
I'm a little hesitant about what to do with Justin Thomas at the Memorial. Course history at Muirfield Village has been erratic over the years with three-top eight showings and three missed cuts thrown into the mix during his past six attempts, and the heartbreaking loss to Collin Morikawa last weekend could be weighing on his psyche. Personally, I think his $10,900 price tag makes him marginally overpriced with all the red flags attached to him, but it doesn't mean he can't find success once again. I'll just be underweight compared to others.
Rory McIlroy ($10,700)
It was jarring to see Rory McIlroy as the third option in both the DraftKings and betting markets. We have become accustomed to the Irishman entering as the leadoff hitter for the past year on tour, but the recent slippage in current form to go along with the rise of Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas has added a change to the scenery, at least for one week. I can understand the argument for DeChambeau being near or above McIlroy with everything weighed into the equation, but I do have a difficult time understanding Thomas' surge above the top-ranked player in the world. I am going into the week with the mindset that McIlroy is still the man to beat, meaning we are getting a slight bargain as his current rate.
Dustin Johnson ($10,300)
Despite Dustin Johnson's victory at the Travelers Championship, two things have remained hit-and-miss for him recently. For starters, his proximity numbers are not what they have been in years past, which leads us to our next point of Johnson's travails around the green. The American ranks 72nd compared to the field in that area, and his sloppy irons could provide short-game trouble at a venue that will play more complicated than it did just a week ago.
Collin Morikawa ($10,000)
I am not going to sit here and act as if Collin Morikawa doesn't make logical sense as a selection to go back to after his victory at the venue just a few days ago, but there are some concerns that I would like to point out. I believe we are overpaying somewhat because of his recent win, and it is essential to note that the course should play substantially more challenging in areas that will hurt his game. Quicker greens will mean less of an ability to stick irons close to the pin, and his astronomical gains in putting a week ago will most likely come back down to earth on the quicker surface. Add in a spotty around the green game that could also rear its ugly head with the grown out rough, and there are reasons to be concerned. With all that being said, he is still top-10 in my model for a reason, but it doesn't mean he isn't overpriced.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
It seems likely that Patrick Cantlay will be the highest owned player on the slate, but it is understandable with the general mispricing on the part of DraftKings. While some might view the discount as a positive, I would have preferred to pay up in salary and alleviate a percentage of the field that wouldn't have used a pricier version of him. Consider Cantlay to be perhaps the best cash-game play on the board, but it is up to you if his GPP appeal is worth the high ownership. In general, the answer does feel like a yes.
Webb Simpson ($9,600)
Webb Simpson's $9,600 price tag on DraftKings is exactly where I had him slotted for the week. Substandard curse history at Muirfield could be a concern for some, but his game is at a higher level than it has ever been in his career. Using past statistics and numbers won't tell the whole picture, and Simpson should be viewed as an adequately priced choice.
Viktor Hovland ($9,500)
If we are telling the whole picture, my model loves Viktor Hovland at the Memorial. However, I can't say I agree with what it is spitting out. Hovland got the benefit of a watered-down track last weekend at the Workday Charity Open, and his prowess with his irons could dwindle significantly on a surface that won't be as receptive for pin hunting. The youngster is ranked 114th compared to the field in strokes gained around the green, and the story doesn't get any better with a 114th place ranking inside the bunker. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 33rd-ranked player in the world disappoint with a missed cut this week, making him someone I will be avoiding in all formats.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400)
I think we can be too fickle as a community sometimes. I realize it was in a substantially weaker field, but a $10,000 Hideki Matsuyama just generated ownership totals of nearly 32 percent in cash-games and over 21% in GPP contests at the Workday Charity Open and may now struggle to eclipse 15% in either game type at the Memorial. I'm done projecting win equity when it comes to the 28-year-old because it is obviously lower than my model suggests, but the price is fair to take a shot in pretty much all game types. I prefer him as a cash-game play if we are getting technical, but I am okay with the notion of using him across the board.
Xander Schauffele ($9,200)
It was a quiet 14th place showing for Xander Schauffele at the Workday Charity Open, but it was enough to give the American his sixth top-25 result in his last seven events. Overall, the lack of excitement should provide us with another opportunity to acquire the 26-year-old at a price tag and ownership total less than expected, and I think the toughened venue should play into Schauffele's game-style.
Tiger Woods ($9,000)
You rarely will hear me say this sentiment, but Tiger Woods' price on DraftKings is exceptionally fair. I'd argue that he should be a couple of points higher in the outright market with the lack of golf he has played leading into the tournament, but $9,000 on DraftKings isn't unfair by any stretch of the imagination. I'd avoid Tiger in cash games until we see more and admittingly won't have a ton of exposure to him in GPP either, but I'm not going to take a massive stance against the possibility of someone deciding to use him.
Gary Woodland ($8,600)
Gary Woodland's performance over the weekend at Muirfield involved some smoke and mirrors. Over seven strokes gained putting propelled him up the leaderboard and into fifth place, and it may have taken away any appeal of using the American for DraftKings purposes. I'm going to keep a close eye on where his ownership projection goes leading into Thursday, but with the assumed traction he may catch within the industry, I might end up with substantially less exposure than I was anticipating having a week ago. Woodland can be a liability around the green and in the bunker, and we need to be careful if this turns into a runaway ownership train. Somewhere over 12.5% would be my tipping point of where I would want out.
Tony Finau ($8,300)
Between Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger, this mid-to-low $8,000 range will have its fair share of popularity. If you are looking for a potential pivot option, I am leaning towards Tony Finau as being that choice. The 30-year-old hasn't quite looked like himself in recent weeks, but this is an opportunity of acquiring talent over everything else at the right price. Despite the poor results, Finau is still grading out as someone undervalued for the week, and the price tag that places him 20th overall in salary gives us a ton of room for upside.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Joaquin Niemann ($7,900), Paul Casey ($7,900) & Sergio Garcia ($7,800)
The range of Joaquin Niemann, Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia will be one that is going to require making the right choice to find success on the week. All three have perks and flaws, and each will bring in their fair share of ownership. If you are going in with the mentality of pivoting to the golfer with the least interest, Garcia will probably be your man, but the margin of difference separating the three is not much across the board. For what it is worth, Casey is grading out the best for me statistically, while Garcia is providing the most steady numbers of the group.
Adam Hadwin ($7,400)
It was a disappointing 35th place showing for Adam Hadwin, who ended round one just one shot off the lead before imploding with performances of 73 and 76 over the next two days. Win equity is never quite there for the steady Canadian, but his $7,400 price tag gives a nice opportunity to grab him for a reduced rate. I prefer Hadwin in cash games as a safety play, but there is more upside than usual.
Shane Lowry ($7,200)
I have Shane Lowry underpriced in all markets, but it is his $7,200 total on DraftKings that has caught my eye the most. Lowry sputtered to a 39th place showing just a week ago, but I consider the venue to be a better set up for him in the second go-around. Ranked first in my model in sand save percentage and proximity with his irons, there is under the radar appeal for those that are looking for a GPP standout under $7,500.
Lucas Glover ($7,100)
We keep running into a lot of similar issues with the golfers in this territory. Poor around the green or bunker games make them liabilities when it comes to consistency, but the overall strength in numbers will be difficult to ignore. Lucas Glover has provided four straight top-23 finishes since the return of golf and has included four top-52 results at the venue since 2016. Upside is always an issue when discussing the American, but he is a solid cash-game play if you are in need of someone down the board.
Harold Varner III ($7,100)
Harold Varner III burned 32.4% of cash-game players at the Workday Charity Open en route to a missed cut effort. That performance will narrow how many decide to quickly get back onto Varner at the same course just a week later, but I don't think much has changed from week-to-week. The American is one of the best players in the field tee to green and is a reliable ball-striker to boot.
Erik Van Rooyen ($7,000)
More of a GPP play than anything else, Erik Van Rooyen imploded during his last event at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, firing a first-round 75 to the miss the cut. The South African was a trendy sleeper entering that tournament but now comes to Muirfield Village as a golfer who is projected to generate less than four percent ownership. There are still massive red flags to worry about when it comes to production, but you aren't going to need much of him to be extremely overweight to the field. I like taking players with upside, and Van Rooyen provides just that.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,200)
I always like pointing out what player has the most significant disparity difference between my model and their DraftKings price, and that distinction belongs to Matthew NeSmith at the Memorial. NeSmith's overall ranking of 41st overall separates him from his DK price ranking of 105th by 64 positions, and there are things to like about his style for the venue. The 187th-ranked player in the world ranks inside the top-25 compared to the field in strokes gained approach+Bentgrass putting, as well as overall bogey avoidance and ball striking. NeSmith's missed cut at the property last weekend will scare many users away from him in week two, but I am willing to ignore his Friday 79 as being nothing more than a fluky result.
