RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the RSM Classic. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RSM Classic
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Sea Island Golf Club
7,005 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda
Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. I always note that the main takeaway from a Fazio design is the extreme undulation that can be found throughout, but I think he did an excellent job of keeping the link-style nature about as pronounced as the day it was constructed.
One of the most notable things to keep in mind is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the Plantation Course. Rotational events are always a little more challenging to handicap, but there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type. I’m not going to go wild trying to model both courses into the mix since I think it does more harm than good when the more critical weekend rounds are going to be found at the same track, but I don’t mind adding in some emphasis on par-five scoring since the one-off day will feature four par-fives. I didn't do that in my model, but I certainly believe it is on the table. Wind typically plays a factor with such narrow landing areas off the tee, and it does play as a benefit if you can find the short grass. On average, the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the fairway, which is right up there with the highest GIR percentage on tour. The putting surfaces are larger than average, and we have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for the sake of my research since one of them is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers are the 368-yard 8th hole and the 470-yard 18th.
The last two items I feel are worth mentioning would be 8.7% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond here than a typical stop. That is a little troublesome when building models because it suggests a putting contest, and then the distance of 125-175 on approach shots is 8.5% higher than average. All other ranges are below the median output total. Tournaments like this are tough to measure since putting plays such a prominent role, but I tried to get unique in my outlook. You can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Sea Island | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 275 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 71% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 73% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.59 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, Scottie Scheffler and Webb Simpson lead the way at 12/1 and are followed by Cameron Smith at 18/1 and Corey Conners and Harris English at 25/1
Key Stats
- Weighted SG Short Courses/Easy Courses/Bermuda 30%
- Moderate to Severe Wind 10%
- Par-Four 400-450 15%
- Weighted Putting + Irons 30%
- GIR Gained 15%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Webb Simpson ($10,700) - There might not be a better player on tour when it comes to rollover success at venues he likes than Webb Simpson. He has produced two top-three results here since 2018, and it is easy to understand why when we look at him from a statistical perspective. Simpson doesn't rank outside of eighth in any of the five categories I used for modeling, and he is number one in multiple categories.
- Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($10,900) - It is just a matter of when the win is going to finally arrive, not if it will show up. Scottie Scheffler possesses elite potential and is very playable if his ownership stays near 10 percent.
- Favorite GPP Play: Louis Oosthuizen ($10,400) - Louis Oosthuizen has surprisingly gone ice cold with his putter, losing in four straight events and averaging negative-two strokes per. He is leading this field in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds, so if he is able to flip the script with what should be the best part of his game, the stats are trending towards a big result. I do have some concerns with him for cash-game-type contests, but he is in play for GPPs and the outright market.
- Fade: Harris English ($10,100) - I have the least interest in Harris English. He is off the table completely for me in cash after withdrawing from the CJ Cup when his back flared up a few weeks ago.
- Most Likely Winner: Louis Oosthuizen ($10,400)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Adam Scott ($9,000) - Adam Scott is my preferred pivot off of Kevin Kisner. Kisner makes some sense as an outright ticket when we look at his five top-seven finishes during his nine starts at the venue, including a win, but three missed cuts have been sprinkled into the mix. He is averaging negative-7.98 strokes total over his last six starts, and that's including a victory at the Wyndham Championship. Instead, Adam Scott has quietly been trending in the right direction. As many of you will remember, Kisner’s win at the Wyndham should have been Scott’s if he could have just drained his three-foot putt in the playoff, and despite a negative showing with his irons last week, he had gained 3.28 strokes with them over his previous six. The Aussie also grades top-10 in GIRs gained, DraftKings points per contest, long-distance Bermuda putting, par-four scoring 400-450 yards, wind play and my weighted category of short courses, easy courses and Bermuda.
- Most Upside: Corey Conners ($9,900) - I love everything about Corey Conners this week if we just removed the ownership. I wish they made him more expensive, but the Canadian checks all the boxes I was trying to find. Off the tee has surprisingly shown to be a little more impactful here than most stops, and while part of that is because of the accuracy you need to find success, there are varying ways others have found success. Conners is second in that OTT stat over his past 24 rounds and grades inside of the top-10 in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained total, strokes gained at easy courses, venues under 7200 cards, as well six other pertinent categories that could be weighed into any mix. Conners looks strong across the board.
- Favorite GPP Play: Joaquin Niemann ($9,700) - Here is your weekly Joaquin Neimann suggestion. Last week was the first time Niemann has lost OTT + APP in the same start since the Open in 2019. In fact, I only saw three occurrences to date where he has done that. He has followed up every performance with a top-38 finish in that next outing.
- Fade: Kevin Kisner ($9,200) - He works better as an outright. I don't love 10%+ on a golfer trending completely in the wrong direction
- Most Likely Winner: Corey Conners ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Joel Dahmen ($8,500) - I like where Joel Dahmen's irons are heading after gaining in seven of eight starts. We know he can get hot with the putter in spurts, and there aren’t many players that see as big of an increase as he does at a short setup.
- Most Upside: Justin Rose ($8,800) - There is a narrative you can find around Justin Rose that won't be hard to locate. Short courses are typically where he finds his best success nowadays, and he ranks top-20 in multiple categories.
- Favorite GPP Play: Chris Kirk ($8,000) - Chris Kirk is my favorite play in this range. Kirk won the event in 2013 and has an additional four top-18s in his last seven showings at the tournament. He grades fourth for me from an upside perspective, making him a golfer that might be worth a look as an outright bet or GPP play.
- Fade: Mito Periera ($8,300) - Mito Periera has been on a steady decline statistically over the last few months. I don't believe Bermuda is his best surface.
- Most Likely Winner: Chris Kirk ($8,000)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Matt Wallace ($7,600) - One of the better cash values on the board.
- Most Upside: Brian Harman ($7,800) - About as boom-or-bust as you can get.
- Favorite GPP Play: Branden Grace ($7,400) - Color everyone shocked that I like Jason Day too.
- Fade: Chez Reavie ($7,000)
- Most Likely Winner: Branden Grace ($7,400)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Harry Higgs $6,900, Zach Johnson $6,900, Cameron Davis $6,900
Fliers: Camillo Villegas, Michael Thompson $6,700, Scott Stallings $6,700, Kramer Hickok $6,600, Andrew Putnam $6,400, Davis Thompson $6,400, Paul Barjon $6,000
Win Big With RotoBaller
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
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