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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Sanderson Farms

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Hudson Swafford entered the week having produced just one top-10 result in his previous 27 events, but you would never have known it with how he was able to close the show out on Sunday. Swafford clutched up late, making a 10-foot birdie putt at the 17th hole and finished the festivities with an eight-foot par putt on 18 to help get him his second career PGA Tour victory.

From an overall statistical perspective, the American put together a complete outing, ranking inside the top-15 compared to the field in driving accuracy, driving distance, sand save percentage and putts per GIR. The win gets Swafford into the 2021 Masters, Players Championship and PGA Championship, as well as an exemption through the 2023 PGA season.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sanderson Farms

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Sanderson Farms - PGA DFS Overview

Country Club of Jackson

7,461  Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a rather unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by Donald Ross, the 18-hole layout used for the event was redesigned by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008 but still keeps many of the Ross principles that you would expect to see. Players will be required to work the ball both ways with doglegs going left and right, and the positioning and undulation of the greens will force golfers to hit shots to the correct side of the fairway.

Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. Players only hit about 54% of fairways, but the lack of rough shouldn't present issues for those that are unable to locate the short grass off the tee. All of that makes me believe a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be the way to go with Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ being the previous two winners, but a hot putter will be the key to success.

Typically, events like this are not my favorite when we have to rely on anything involving the flat stick, but I do believe I can pinpoint why putting is vital for the event. Bermuda greens feature less grain in the fall than the rest of the year, allowing strong putters to take advantage of a truer rolling surface. The issue with that narrative is that even though Munoz and Champ both dominated on the greens during their victories, neither should be considered an above-average putter. It places us right back into this narrative that we will need players who can get hot, and sometimes that can feel like throwing darts.

*** I have decided to weigh a combination of total driving and not just distance. I believe the Bermuda rough will have more impact than initially thought because of the fluffier lies impeding the amount of backspin you can get on the ball. I left in the original stance because I felt it was important to show changing your mind during the week is an entirely acceptable route to take. However, I will still be leaning more towards length over accuracy when weighing out the numbers. 

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat CC Of Jackson Tour Average
Driving Distance 281 282
Driving Accuracy 54% 62%
GIR Percentage 69% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 61% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.55 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Scottie Scheffler leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Sungjae Im at 14, Will Zalatoris at 18 and Sebastian Munoz and Sam Burns at 25/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Total Driving 20% (70% Distance - 30% Accuracy)
  • Bermuda Putting Last 100 17.5%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Overall Birdie or Better 15%
  • Proximity 125-175 15%
  • Proximity 200+ 15%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Scottie Scheffler ($11,400)

We get Scottie Scheffler back into the mix after he was forced to miss a few weeks after contracting COVID, but none of that seems to have derailed his likely win equity, according to DFS/betting sites. Scheffler enters the event as the 10/1 favorite to capture the title, and his $11,400 price tag on DraftKings paints a similar story when it comes to his chances to find success. It is challenging to argue against the 24-year-old from a statistical perspective, but it usually isn't my style to pay to the top of the betting board for a player that is still looking for his first PGA Tour title. However, all of that places us in a weird situation because of my disdain for most of the players in the $9,000 range, and it might equate to me owning more Scheffler than I originally anticipated.

Sungjae Im ($10,500)

Back to Bermuda and a venue that might emphasize Sungjae Im's birdie-making prowess, sign me up. While I acknowledge Scheffler is a better cash-game/head-to-head play because of his statistical consistency, Im becomes intriguing for the exact opposite reason in GPP tournaments. The South Korean has done most of his damage on Bermuda greens in the past, and we are all aware of the kind of fire he can catch when he is in the zone. Like Scheffler, I will not find myself overweight on many $9,000 options, meaning there will be room up top.

Will Zalatoris ($10,200)

Will Zalatoris bailed backers out at the Corales Puntacana with a final round 65, and it appears to be enough to generate support once again at the Sanderson Farms. Honestly, I don't have a strong take one way or the other on the American at his current price tag. It is in my nature to believe this is too much too quickly, but I am not going to beat the drum for why Zalatoris is an overvalued commodity. The 24-year-old has shown to be an outstanding golfer early in his career, and it is up to you to decide how to evaluate the information we have at our disposal. I will find myself relatively underweight compared to the field, but it doesn't mean I am correct with my stance.

Byeong Hun An ($10,000)

I'll have exposure to the first three golfers, but I can't say the same about Byeong Hun An. An's price tag of $10,000 is being directly influenced by his third-place showing at the venue last season, and I am never one to place much emphasis on course history - especially when there is only one tournament being used for our sample size. The South Korean's putting woes could get exposed on a truer rolling Bermuda surface, which in turn could dampen his birdie-making upside. An has only made three of his previous six cuts, and his three showings during that time frame that resulted in outcomes inside the top-22 still never cracked better than 12th place. Maybe he makes the cut; perhaps he even breaks the top-25 again. But I can't get myself to pay a top-four salary on a golfer who isn't ranked inside my top-10.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Sebastian Munoz ($9,900)

Sebastian Munoz enters the week at $9,900, and there is a lot to like about our defending champion from a statistical makeup once again. The Colombian grades inside the top-50 in every statistical metric I will be using to handicap the event this week, and it doesn't hurt matters that he has made his previous four cuts. Munoz's overall safety level places him as a player that can be considered in all game types.

Brian Harman ($9,400)

Did anyone else have fun going all-in with Brian Harman at the U.S. Open? In retrospect, one could argue that Winged Foot was slightly too long and hindered his performance down to a 38th place showing, but if we liked him there, we should still want him at the Country Club of Jackson. I question if Harman has enough firepower to take this event down, but his ability to scrap doesn't have me as worried about a missed cut as I am about other golfers in this range. In a tournament where there are a lot of unknowns, a top-25 outcome isn't the end of the world, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see him crack the top-10.

Patrick Rodgers ($8,200)

Patrick Rodgers sputtered after getting himself in contention at the Corales Puntacana, but an 11th place showing continued his quality run of seven straight made cuts. Look for his par-five scoring ability and Bermuda putting skills to keep the train rolling at the Sanderson Farms, and it feels like we have another decent spot to take advantage of a price tag that is just a little too small.

Cameron Davis ($8,100)

It doesn't surprise me that Cameron Davis is projected to be one of the slate's highest owned players. Ranked top-12 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better and overall birdie or better percentage, the Aussie has the firepower to attack this week's venue with his length. If you are looking for any downside, Davis ranks 123rd in the field for Bermuda putting, which should be viewed as a pretty substantial deterrent.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Charley Hoffman ($7,900)

I mentioned last weekend that Charley Hoffman had made a turn with his game by providing four top-25 finishes in his previous 10 tournaments, and you can add another tally to that total after the UNLV product posted a share of 14th place at the Corales Puntacana. We always give props to Hoffman for his ability to catch fire on Thursday's at major championships, and a venue like this provides him with an opportunity to do that for four days potentially.

Charl Schwartzel ($7,800)

I don't want to get too caught up on my small sample size of statistics on Charl Schwartzel because my database doesn't include any of his European form, but his showing at the Safeway Open was enough to have him crack my top-five for the week. Schwartzel is volatile, but his upside in GPPs does have him as someone worth considering at about a five percent ownership projection.

Chesson Hadley ($7,800)

Chesson Hadley's two missed cuts at the property might lessen his projected ownership total on DraftKings, but it is important to note that he also has a second-place result squeezed in between those two products. Hadley's four straight made cuts entering the week does have me more confident than I typically would be about where his game is at heading into the tournament, and he ranks ninth in overall birdie or better percentage.

Hudson Swafford ($7,300)

I don't consider Hudson Swafford's victory last weekend to be a fluke, as I did recommend him as a top-20 wager in my Vegas Report. DraftKings doesn't seem to agree by placing him down at just $7,300 for his follow-up contest, but I won't complain in taking a price tag that feels extremely reduced. There is no reason for Swafford to be under $8,000 in salary.

Kristoffer Ventura ($7,200)

I understand that we have a moderately stronger field from what we were given at Corales Golf Club last weekend, but some of the price reductions are overwhelming on individual golfers. To me, this contest still is reduced from an overall skill standpoint, and I can't seem to understand what has caused Kristoffer Ventura to drop from $9,200 to his current going rate of $7,200. His 52nd-place showing last weekend was disappointing, no doubt, but consider this an ideal spot to jump back into the fray on the Oklahoma State product.

J.B Holmes ($7,000)

High risk, high reward; that is the best way to describe J.B. Holmes, who is slowly getting back into the groove of things after dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of action from July to the Safeway Open. Holmes put together a 46th-place result in Napa Valley and will look to build off that result at the Sanderson Farms. Consider his GPP upside to be intriguing.

Adam Schenk ($6,700)

What did Adam Schenk do to go from $8,500 last weekend to his current price of $6,700? I understand Schenk has lacked some upside as of late, but eight straight made cuts is not the easiest thing to come by in the sub-$7,000 range. His seventh-place showing here in 2018 to go along with his two top-43 appearances in 2019 and 2017 should be all that you need to know that the American is one of the most mispriced options on the board.

Vincent Whaley ($6,600)

Three top-37 results for Vincent Whaley has the 25-year-old PGA Tour rookie trending in the right direction, and he will look to cement his status with another robust effort this weekend. Whaley has been on record that his college teammate at Georgia Tech (Ollie Schniederjans) was the reason behind his improvement, and I am never going to be one that goes against what the incomparable Ollie says or does.

Sahith Theegala ($6,600)

After having his college experience cut short because of COVID-19, Sahith Theegala has started to gain momentum on the PGA Tour with two consecutive top-41 results - including a 14th place showing at the Safeway Open. Earlier in the year, Theegala won the Haskins, Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus awards while in college at Pepperdine, becoming just the fifth person ever to win all three in the same year.

Jamie Lovemark ($6,100)

After missing four PGA Tour cuts in a row, Jamie Lovemark has put together back-to-back weekends at the Safeway Open and Corales Puntacana. Both finishes were marred by Saturday or Sunday implosions, but Lovemark is beginning to regain some of the same form that saw him crack the top-100 players in 2018.

Hunter Mahan ($6,000)

It has been a long road back for Hunter Mahan, who continues to struggle with six missed cuts in seven events during 2020. None of those issues have technically gone away, but Mahan showed a little life during his missed cut at the Safeway Open, posting impressive numbers across the board. The six-time PGA Tour winner might be able to carry some of that momentum into a venue where he has not missed a cut since 2017, and his Bermuda putting skills should add another wrinkle of hope.

 

 

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