Welcome back, RotoBallers! Did anyone see the possibility for Sergio Garcia to regain some putting form at the Sanderson Farms? If you answered no, you probably weren't much different than the Spaniard, who was putting with his eyes closed throughout the event.
While it almost sounds like an outlandish story that can't be true, Garcia admitted after his round on Saturday that this is a strategy he has deployed numerous times throughout his career, including during his only major championship victory at Augusta. Sometimes seeing is believing, and who am I to question the now 11-time PGA Tour winner.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!Editor's Note: Golf is back! Come join the fun and win big with RotoBaller. Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off! Our exclusive DFS Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections and weekly DFS/betting articles! Sign Up Now!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Shriners Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!
Shriners Open - PGA DFS Overview
7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass
The PGA Tour brings a star-studded field to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which is a welcoming sight after a few substandard contests in a row. Measuring in as a 7,251 yard par-71, Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course itself meanders through arroyos and canyons and features lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough.
I've noted before that I don't play a ton of golf, but TPC Summerlin is a venue that I have teed it up at in the past. Only 15 minutes away from my house, the property is one of the most visually aesthetic in the city, but for what it brings in looks, you lose some of the difficulty along the way. One hundred and two bunkers were redone in 2018 to try and add a little more challenge, but it hasn't appeared to do much with the average winning score coming in at 22-under par during that time frame.
In my opinion, the only real defense for the course itself would be wind. Many people don't realize just how breezy Vegas can get throughout the year, and it does appear as if gusts are in the forecast. We will see if that holds accurate after an extremely subdued last few weeks, but it is worth noting that we might want to find golfers that play well in conditions that are a little tougher. The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. There is a challenging par-three 17th, but that will be the only real test for players coming home. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin in an ideal situation, and it is not as if we should be anticipating anything that will be too grueling for the field.
Let's Look At The Stats
|Stat||TPC Summerlin||Tour Average|
|Average Three-Putts Per Round||0.53||0.55|
In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 11/1, Patrick Cantlay at 16/1 and Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1. Kevin Na, your defending champion, enters the week at 70/1.
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee 17.5%
- Weighted Bent Putting + Scrambling 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
- Weighted Total Driving 15%
- Sand Save 12.5%
- Proximity 125-175 Yards 12.5%
- Proximity 200+ Yards 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,800)
There are some weeks where you can get contrarian to find an edge in DFS contests, but it won't be easy to think outside the box for the Shriners Open. TPC Summerlin has proven to be a venue that consistently has the same names rise to the top, and I believe it is essential to look at course history before handicapping the event. That is never a narrative that you hear me discuss for this article, as I am a firm believer that stats and current form tell more of the picture than past results at a venue, but the top of the DFS board reads like a "who's who" for past success. Bryson DeChambeau's three consecutive top-seven results at the property, including his victory in 2018, will go a long way, but it won't come cheaply at $11,800.
Webb Simpson ($11,000)
A victory here in 2013 to go along with four other top-20 results in his other six attempts shows that TPC Summerlin has quietly been one of Webb Simpson's go-to locations. We always discuss his dominance at places like the Wyndham Championship, but Vegas has quietly turned into a location where the American has popped, even when he hasn't ridden the best form into the week. I believe gamers looking for a rebate in price can safely go down to the seventh-ranked player in the world, but we shouldn't be getting much deviation in ownership between Simpson and DeChambeau. Everyone above $10,000 will be popular.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,400)
Patrick Cantlay will provide us our first real thinking spot at $10,400. The American grades out as my fifth-ranked golfer in terms of overall DFS modeling, but he does come in below the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama. The margins are so thin that I wouldn't necessarily blame anyone for pivoting to the 13th-ranked player in the world, but it is worth noting that Cantlay isn't bringing the same form to the week of previous seasons, which might prevent him from adding his fourth consecutive top-two finish at TPC Summerlin to his resume. We are nitpicking here, but I could argue that Cantlay might end up being my odd man out for no other reason than strength around him.
Tony Finau ($10,200)
Surprisingly, Tony Finau is my first "true value" of the week, as the big-hitter from Utah should be priced $200 more on DraftKings. Again, we are talking fractions of a percent when it comes to expected output, but I like to pinpoint where there are deviations from my model to actual pricing. With all that being said, I always find it challenging to pay up in salary for Finau, who has proven to have trouble getting himself across the finish line. I am done predicting where Finau's next victory will happen, but TPC Summerlin is a good location for his style, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself having another chance on Sunday.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900)
I'll be interested to see where Hideki Matsuyama falls with his actual ownership. As of right now, the Japanese sensation is expected to generate 15% for DraftKings contests, but I could see that number falling as gamers shift to other options around him. Matsuyama's ball-striking nature should give him a chance to grow from his 16th-place result here last season, and his overall makeup places him as perhaps the safest option under $10,000. I realize my happy-go-lucky disposition for every golfer is wearing thin, but it should explain how correctly priced a board we have received. Sometimes it just isn't easy to find value.
Collin Morikawa ($9,800)
From a pure upside perspective, Collin Morikawa is an intriguing route for GPP contests. His two missed cuts in his previous three events will take him off my board when it comes to cash games, but the American provides us with the same caliber upside as the top of the board, just at a reduced salary price. Saving a few dollars is never a bad thing, and it might allow you more maneuverability in roster construction.
Jason Day ($9,500)
I'd be negligent if I didn't discuss Jason Day during an event in my hometown. My affinity for the Aussie has not been hidden, but I want to make it clear that he earns his spot in this write-up because of his skills. Day's ability to scramble, play out of the bunker and score on par-fives will come in handy at TPC Summerlin, and he provides DFS participants an extremely intriguing situation to grab a top-tiered player at less than five percent.
Sungjae Im ($9,300)
It was a swing and a miss for Sungjae Im last weekend in Mississippi after fluttering to a 28th-place result at the Sanderson Farms. Lofty ownership from the previous week that doesn't result in a top-10 finish will typically account for most DFS players going underweight in the following contest, and that narrative is shaping up early in the week. Im is only projected to be nine percent owned, but I'd be careful in avoiding the 22-year-old. Im has a 15th-place finish on his record here in 2018 and showed some life last Sunday with a final round 66.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,100)
I think it is important to check how someone missed a cut when doing research. After a 10th-place showing in 2018 at TPC Summerlin, Joaquin Niemann failed to make the weekend last year, missing the cut on the number. Two rounds of 69 shouldn't indicate any potential issues, and the Chilean has the upside to make birdies in bunches - something that can play to his advantage if he gets hot.
Brian Harman ($8,000)
Brian Harman's lack of robust finishes has kept him subdued in salary for the last few months, but it continues to provide us a situation to grab the lefty at a reduced price tag. Harman has provided back-to-back top-18 results at this week's venue, and his ability to scramble and get up-and-down out of bunkers should give him an edge over most of the field.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Doc Redman ($7,900)
I guess we have to discuss Doc Redman, who is projected to be the highest owned player this week under $8,000. I typically don't find as much value as most on the 22-year-old, but I agree that Redman is underrated for this week's contest. I do think we have potential pivot situations possible, but I won't be entirely avoiding the American as I sometimes do.
Cameron Smith ($7,800)
Speaking of potential pivots, Cameron Smith gives us someone that has shown to be capable of winning on tour but isn't a name that most seem to want to roster. The Aussie enters the week having produced four straight top-45 results, and he hasn't finished outside of 13th in his previous two showings in Vegas. Golfers like Smith are typically where I like to shift when ownership clouds a section, and his five percent projected total has me raising both eyebrows.
Harold Varner ($7,500)
It is hard to compile all of what Harold Varner III has done over the past few years and not feel as if he has underachieved. The American has only produced one top-10 showing on tour in 2020, and he hasn't exactly been a beacon for consistency with eight missed cuts in 17 tournaments. However, despite all the negative traits we can highlight of why he hasn't found more success, Varner seems to be trending towards a golfer ready to achieve more in his career. Three top-29 finishes over his last four tournaments is an encouraging sign, and his ability to gain strokes off the tee shouldn't be discounted.
Aaron Wise ($7,400)
There are a lot of players in the field with a Las Vegas backstory, but Aaron Wise takes it to another level. The 24-year-old experienced his first big break at the property in 2016 when he finished 10th, and his success at the venue can be easily explained. Wise uses TPC Summerlin as his home course and is coached by Jeff Smith - one of the head teaching pros at the property. It has been a rocky past few seasons for the Oregon product, but he might be trending in the right direction after finishing last week in 17th-place.
Lanto Griffin ($7,300)
There is a relatively solid built-in floor for Lanto Griffin, entering the week having made his last seven cuts. An 18th-place finish at TPC Summerlin in 2019 adds to the sanguinity, and it is not as if gamers are flocking to the 68th-ranked player in the world. Griffin should be someone to consider for cheap in cash-game contests, and his par-five scoring might help him to crack another top-25 result.
Luke List ($7,000)
Three straight top-20 results for Luke List in Vegas has turned the Vanderbilt product into a trendy sleeper this week. List has been shaky as of late, but his eighth-place result at the Corales Puntacana should add some optimism that the 141st-ranked player in the world can keep his streak alive in Sin City.
Adam Schenk ($6,900)
I realize we aren't talking about bank-breaking results, but DFS sites have refused to do much with Adam Schenk's price tag. The American has executed nine consecutive made cuts, but it has gone relatively unnoticed because of some subpar weekends. I will continue to play Schenk until he sees an increase that places him in the $7,000 range, and I believe he once again presents one of the better values on the board.
Chesson Hadley ($6,700)
It was a disappointing result for Chesson Hadley in Mississippi, but it might be a blessing in disguise if it allows us to grab last week's chalk at a quiet ownership total. Hadley has not finished worse than 18th in his last three trips to Vegas and has two top-seven results during that time frame.
Matt Jones ($6,600)
Ranked seventh in my model in par-five birdie or better percentage, Matt Jones also grades inside the top-25 in weighted Bentgrass putting + scrambling, sand save percentage and overall par-five scoring. Jones has produced two top-30 finishes at this week's venue during the last four years and also has made three cuts.
MJ Daffue ($6,500)
I wouldn't feel comfortable playing a ton of MJ Daffue, but there are a few things to like about his recent form. Daffue rides into the week off of a 12th-place showing at the Sanderson Farms, and he has birdied nearly 60% of his par-fives during the eight trackable rounds I have on him. A 72.22 GIR percentage has the South African as someone to keep an eye on going forward.
Beau Hossler ($6,500)
It is funny what two years can do to a young player. In 2018, I selected Beau Hossler to find his breakthrough victory in Vegas at odds of 55/1, and it feels as if everything has gone wrong for the Mission Viejo native since that moment. Hossler is a world-class putter when he gets it rolling, and we have gotten a small taste of that with him ranking third compared to the field over his last 100 rounds on Bentgrass greens.
Justin Suh ($6,200)
I think we sometimes don't realize how good a younger player is until their breakout performance happens on a bigger stage. After missing the first four cuts of 2020, Suh has delivered two top-25 finishes since the Barracuda, and none of it should come as that big of a surprise to the American after spending 26 weeks as the number one amateur in the world between 2018-2019.
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