RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Travelers Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Travelers Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC River Highlands
6,841 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa (With Bentgrass)
TPC River Highlands was initially built in 1928 by Robert Ross but was re-designed twice in the 1980s by Pete Dye and Bobby Weed. The Dye narrative is always an interesting one to handicap because of the similarities between his properties, and we have seen a pretty consistent rollover in production over the years from the same players that tend to play well at this track.
The one question you will hear a ton of this week is" "what kind of golfer does a course like this benefit?" The consensus answer seems to be good approach players that can get hot with their putter, but I seem to be in the minority on my viewpoint. Yes, a hot putter is undoubtedly going to be helpful to find success, but strokes gained off the tee has actually been a better indicator for total dispersion in scores when we look at the PGA Tour average in all strokes gained categories. We see that the 31.4% total in strokes gained approach is 3.3% below average, whereas the 18.2% number on strokes gained off the tee is 3.1% higher than a regular tour stop. We can't get it twisted that iron play, like most weeks, is more impactful, but I would deviate a little from the plethora of iron numbers and focus heavier on proximity ranges and perhaps ball-striking - especially when we look at the plurality of the shots coming between 125-175 yards.
I believe the reason for the differences in perception stems from two main factors. First off, the 6,841-yard measurement doesn't exactly scream off the tee prowess being the ultimate decider, but the seven percentage points over tour average that we see in driving accuracy will allow players to create separation in various avenues. It is a weird way to look at that because the reality of what I just said should mean distance then becomes a little more enhanced, which I do think it does, but it is where we also see the steady-Eddie players off the tee get a chance to excel with their mid irons if they can get hot for the week. At the end of the day, birdie-making skills, par-four scoring, putting on a mixture of Poa/Bentgrass and historical performances on Pete Dye tracks should be added to the equation for a tournament that isn't the easiest to handicap - even if the leaderboards tend to say otherwise.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC River Highlands | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 279 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 69% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.48 | 0.56 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Dustin Johnson at 13/1, Patrick Cantlay at 16/1 and Paul Casey and Brooks Koepka at 18/1.
Key Stats
- Weighted T2G - 20%
- Opportunities Gained + Putting 5-10 Feet - 17.5%
- Weighted Proximity 125-175 Yards & 200+ - 17.5%
- Ball Striking - 12.5%
- T2G Short Pete Dye Tracks - 12.5%
- Overall Birdie or Better - 10%
- Par-Four Average - 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Patrick Cantlay ($10,400) - Patrick Cantlay is the only player in this range ranked inside the top-15 for me in statistical data, current form and course history. His three consecutive top-15 performances at TPC River Highlands is part of the reason for that narrative, and Cantlay hasn't finished outside of 23rd place in his past three starts on tour. The one downside we can point to is that the 29-year-old has been better in California than on the east in recent memory, but he gets a venue that has ignored that notion.
- Most Upside: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100) - What a horrible Sunday finish from Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open, but his upside still remains as the top-ranked player in my model when it comes to his statistical fit for the venue. Now, there are issues to worry about for a player who just let his second consecutive U.S. Open slip from his grasp, but it is hard to ignore the fact that he ranks inside the top-15 in six of the seven metrics I weighted for the week. That is good enough for me to consider him in GPP builds, but I would be cautious in approaching the big-hitter in cash games.
- Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($11,400) - The highest price tag but the lowest projected ownership is what we get on Dustin Johnson. While Johnson's game has been far from perfect over the last few weeks, he is the defending champion at this course and always has been a player that performs better on Poa grass that features a hint of bentgrass in the mixing. It feels like the now second-ranked player in the world will break out of his mini-slump here shortly, and what better place to do it than a venue that has been kind to him in the past.
- Fade: None - All golfers grade inside the top-10 for me in one iteration of my model or another.
- Most Likely Winner: Dustin Johnson ($11,400)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Kevin Streelman ($9,400) - It has been a firey run for Kevin Streelman, who has now posted five consecutive top-26 finishes. When we add that to the four straight top-33 results we have received from the 42-year-old at TPC River Highlands, including a second-place finish here last season, there is a lot to like about the safety Streelman brings to the table in Connecticut.
- Most Upside: Paul Casey - ($9,900) - I realize Paul Casey isn't exactly the golfer we usually pinpoint when discussing upside, but the Englishman has done just about everything but win the Travelers Championship over the last handful of years. Casey's three top-fives between 2017-2019 is one reason he grades as the best course fit for the venue on a site like datagolf.com, and my model sees it the same way with the 43-year-old listed as the man to beat from an overall rank perspective.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($9,200) - There are some red flags for Tony Finau here, including back-to-back missed cuts at the property in the last two seasons, but his $9,200 price tag on DraftKings is worth a dabble, especially when we consider his sub-10 percent ownership projection. The American ranks fifth in my weighted tee to green category and is also inside the top-20 on short Pete Dye tracks.
- Fade: Matthew Wolff ($9,300) - Despite all the Matthew Wolff jokes I make in this article, I am excited to see him back on tour. The game needs all the young talent it can handle, but the price tag on DraftKings does seem to be asking a lot for him to jump right back in as a top-10 option after one quality finish.
- Most Likely Winner: Paul Casey - ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Brian Harman ($8,800) - If we get rid of Brian Harman's missed cut at Kiawah Island - a venue that was too long for him in measurement - it has been a robust run for the American over the last handful of months, making 13 of his previous 14 cuts. The 47th-ranked player in the world is still searching for his first solo PGA Tour title since 2017, but the two top-eight finishes at TPC River Highlands should highlight this being a potential track for him to end that run.
- Most Upside: Si Woo Kim ($8,500) - Si Woo Kim is always someone worth giving a second look to when he gets on these Pete Dye designs, which is shown by him ranking first in the field in strokes gained tee to green over his last 50 Dye events. The cat is out of the bag when it comes to how the 25-year-old performs on these tests, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't give him a real look in all contests, especially those of the GPP variety.
- Favorite GPP Play: None - That doesn't mean there aren't playable options, but I just don't have a player that sticks out. Nobody is going to play Justin Rose after his U.S. Open debacle, and I do believe there is leverage to be had there, but the missed cut potential is sky-high. If I was forced to pick one player, Adam Scott ($8,000) probably makes the most sense.
- Fade: Cameron Smith ($8,700) - Even a model like mine that tracks up to two years worth of data is having a hard time buying into Cameron Smith. I won't fault someone for taking a dart throw on him in GPP contests, but it is exactly that - "a dart throw."
- Most Likely Winner: Si Woo Kim ($8,500)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Aaron Wise ($7,400) - Wise and safety have never gone into the same sentence, but I like what he brings to the table.
- Most Upside: Sam Burns ($7,700)
- Favorite GPP Play: Brendan Steele ($7,200)
- Fade: Jason Day ($7,500) - If you love something, you have to let it go. Touting Jason Day every week is not working, so let's try to get the Aussie back into the winner's circle by taking the exact opposite approach. There are hidden signs that point towards Day in my DFS model, but you are going to have to search for it under his name!
- Most Likely Winner: Sam Burns ($7,700)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Ryan Moore ($6,800), Hank Lebioda ($6,700), Tom Hoge ($6,600), Vaughn Taylor ($6,600), Chase Seiffert ($6,700), Adam Long ($6,800), Henrik Norlander ($6,800), Danny Lee ($6,900)
Nate Lashley ($6,400) or Sam Ryder ($6,200) is about as low as I would go in my consideration.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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