RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Wells Fargo Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Wells Fargo Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Quail Hollow
7,554 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda
Consistently one of the most challenging tests on tour every season, Quail Hollow's behemoth layout is back to rear its ugly head this weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship. Originally designed by George W. Cobb in 1961, the venue has seen three re-designs in the last 25 years, which doesn't even include the extra distance added to the facility before the 2017 PGA Championship. The new total of 7,554 yards should be considered long by any standards, but it is almost downright criminal that the venue plays as a par 71 to boot.
Tree-lined parklands and undulating fairways are featured at the property, and we see large bunkers surrounding most greens to protect the putting surface. Lightning-quick Bermuda greens ramp up the difficulty in getting down in two or fewer strokes, and the final three holes (The Green Mile) are diabolical and can cause mayhem down the stretch.
Length off the tee will be vital for golfers if they want to find success, and players that can gain strokes off the tee will have a massive advantage over the field. Add in par-five scoring, proximity from over 150 yards, par-four average, three-putt avoidance and strokes gained around the green, and you have a pretty good indicator for what will be needed to succeed this weekend in North Carolina.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Quail Hollow | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 286 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 50% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 56% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.77 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 13/1, Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1 and Rory McIlroy at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Off The Tee + Ball-Striking (25%)
- Proximity 150+ Yards (20%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%)
- Strokes Gained Around The Green (15%)
- Three-Putt Percentage (10%)
- Weighted Putting (10%)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Justin Thomas ($11,300)
The 2017 PGA Championship winner at Quail Hollow gets the top billing this week on DraftKings. It is hard to argue against the choice, as the American gained an astronomical 13.2 shots tee to green last week at the Valspar Championship. Thomas' negative-6.5 shots putting was the second-worst mark of his career, but that shouldn't be considered a death sentence for the 28-year-old when it comes to his playability or upside in North Carolina.
- Safest Play: Webb Simpson ($10,200) - Four top-33 finishes here in his last five attempts. A lack of distance will keep his ownership condensed, but the American provides a cheaper option up top for those looking for a cut-maker - not to mention some GPP upside at his roughly eight percent going rate.
- Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($11,300) - (Mentioned above)
- Favorite GPP Play: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000) - Mr. Boom or bust. We have seen that recently with the eratic results posted by the big-hitting American, but I am under the belief that missing the fairway at Quail Hollow will not be nearly as penal as it has been for him in recent starts. DeChambeau has a fourth-place finish here during his last attempt, which came before he turned himself into the Hulk.
- Fade: Xander Schauffele ($10,500) - I am not going to rule Xander Schauffele out because of his questionable course history in his two attempts at Quail Hollow, but it is enough for me to be underweight compared to the rest of this range. Xander grades out last for me when it comes to his statistical rank between the six golfers above $10,000 (7th overall), and he has struggled marginally in his career on quick putting tests - ranking 62nd over his last 100 rounds.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Tony Finau ($9,500)
While Tony Finau hasn't missed a cut in his last five attempts at Quail Hollow, it is worth noting that he has been slightly disappointing with nothing better than a 16th place result. I've always believed a venue like the one he will face this week could be where he finally ends his winless drought, but his 16 percent ownership has him currently placed in the top-five totals for the week. GPP participants will need to figure out how they want to handle the situation, but I do believe the 31-year-old will keep his made cut streak here alive.
- Safest Play: Tony Finau ($9,500) - (Mentioned above)
- Most Upside: Will Zalatoris ($9,400) - Will Zalatoris' week will come down to how his putter cooperates for him. A pristine ball-striker that is ranked sixth in my model, the young American slips to a lowly 136th in putting when looking at Bermuda greens that are quick. Zalatoris was one of the better putters on the fast Bentgrass greens at Augusta, so there is hope that he keeps his recent good run going at the Wells Fargo Championship.
- Favorite GPP Play: Patrick Reed ($9,300) - At less than 10 percent projected ownership, Patrick Reed is currently slotted to be one of the lower-owned players in this section. Reed ranks inside the top-10 in this field in par-five birdie or better percentage, three-putt avoidance, sand save percentage and strokes gained putting, and we know the American can win when he gets himself into contention.
- Fade: Corey Conners ($9,200) - The counter-argument here is that Corey Conners is playing the best golf of his career, but it is worth mentioning that we haven't seen him post a top-40 result at the venue in his two attempts since 2015. His 114th-place placement in strokes gained around the green is worrisome, and there is a chance we see an implosion if he putts to his baseline total of 148th on fast greens over his last 100 rounds.
$8,000 Range
Sungjae Im ($8,800)
I know it is a weird combination to have Sungjae Im as the safest player and the one with the most upside, but I feel like that is exactly what you get with him on Bermuda. Im ranks fifth over his previous 100 rounds putting on the surface and ranks inside the top-20 in proximity over 150 yards, OTT+ball-striking, overall bogey avoidance and par-five scoring
- Safest Play: Sungjae Im ($8,800) - (Mentioned above)
- Most Upside: Sungjae Im ($8,800) - (Mentioned above)
- Favorite GPP Play: Jason Day ($8,600) - I am a glutton for punishment. There is nothing else to say.
- Fade: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000) - As much as I like Tommy Fleetwood on Bermuda, I can't get myself to bite on a course that will punish his errors.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Brendan Steele ($7,700)
- Most Upside: Carlos Ortiz ($7,400) - This could go in any direction, but I tend to like Carlos Ortiz's short game on a fast test. His recent form will keep him under-owned, but he has upside to surprise. Honorable mention to Sebastion Munoz ($7,300)
- Favorite GPP Play: Talor Gooch ($7,600) -
- Fade: The Russell boys: Russell Henley ($7,900), Russell Knox ($7,200)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
- Safest Play: Wouldn't classify anyone as safe this week in the $6,000 range.
- Most Upside: I can't believe I am going to type this sentence in an actual article, but I do kind of like Phil Mickelson ($6,900) to make a cut and perhaps make a run.
- Favorite GPP Play: Harry Higgs ($6,600)
Fade: Luke List ($6,800) -The price on List is fair, but this is more of a fade on ownership. Eight to 10 percent is a wild number if it stays there.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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