RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the WGC Match Play on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - WGC Match Play
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Austin Country Club
7,182 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded With Poa/Bent
It will be tough to find objective information for this week's WGC, as the strokes gained metrics are virtually non-existent at Austin Country Club. That can make models and things of that nature challenging to glean much from for this wonky event, but I did try my best to go as in-depth as possible when constructing my 'Rankings Wizard' tool that you can find in the link above. There you will be able to find all match play numbers for the field at this specific event, including the usual sortable data that you have become accustomed to using over the past few years on my model.
Instead of speaking about the exact specifics of the course, I would rather talk about game theory on DraftKings since this is one of the most volatile tournaments of the year. Many DFS users have a poor habit of eliminating their chances of winning from the very start by picking golfers in the same quadrant, and I can't stress enough the importance of selecting a lineup that provides the entire group with an opportunity to meet in the elite eight. From there, we are looking to create a pathway to get four of those into the final four, and while that task will be anything but simple to execute, I wouldn't be afraid to leave some dollars on the table in your construction - perhaps a lot since it is an easy way to not only diversify your builds but also account for the erratic nature of the event.
There are 110 bunkers at the property and five water hazards. Players who can play strategic, situational golf should be at an advantage, and I believe mental fortitude and quality putting should also be looked into when making decisions this week in Texas. I've noticed in the past that handicapping this tournament is made most effortless when you take this one group at a time, so try to start from the top and slowly work your way through a bracket. You might be surprised at some of the ideas you form when you pencil in names round-by-round.
Key Stats
- Weighted SG: Total (20%)
- Weighted Par-Three Average (7.5%)
- Weighted Par-Four (17.5%)
- Weighted Par-Five (10%)
- Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (10%)
- Putting From 5-15 Feet (15%)
- Approach + Putting From 5-15 Feet (10%)
- Weighted GIR For Match Play 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
WGC Match Play Groups -
Please note that this article is being written just a few hours after the draw was released. Ownership will play a vital part in these decisions, but these are my initial leans for the 16 groups.
***I am using current ownership to decipher differences and potential pivots.
Group 1 - Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Patrick Reed, Sebastian Munoz
I think the initial mindset for those making brackets or putting together DFS lineups would be to pencil Jon Rahm through the region, and while I can't argue against him being the most likely victor of group 1, there are a few other routes to consider. Cameron Young grades nicely in my model for a young up-start that might be able to spring an upset, and Sebastian Munoz continues to strike the ball well, gaining tee-to-green in eight of his past nine starts. In my opinion, Reed is the one I will likely ignore since his match-play pedigree often gets overblown in contests such as the one we have this week, and I am going to think long and hard about removing Rahm from the field early with either Young or Munoz.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Jon Rahm
- Cameron Young
- Sebastian Munoz
- Patrick Reed
Group 16 - Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, Erik Van Rooyen, Harold Varner III
There is a massive opening for a final-four berth when we look at the first 16 names on the draw. Each of the four groups grades inside the bottom seven for difficulty, and there will be a chance for a surprise participant to sneak out. With most of the early ownership trickling to Shane Lowry, my gut reaction is to take an overpriced Brooks Koepka and hope madness ensues in group 1 to provide an easier path for the American. Harold Varner III has some boom-or-bust potential to him, but his combination of putting and form might be too much to overcome for three matches.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Brooks Koepka
- Shane Lowry
- Harold Varner III
- Erik Van Rooyen
Group 9 - Bryson DeChmabeau, Talor Gooch, Lee Westwood, Richard Bland
This is statistically the weakest group of the bunch from top-to-bottom. Not even an option like Bryson DeChambeau has much long-term equity in the way I built my model, and no matter who survives between this and group 8 when they face off in the Sweet 16, we are going to have a "lucky" elite eight participant that had to advance through the weakest portion of the bracket. I do think you can find potential DFS value if you can pinpoint the correct choice, but it feels like a virtual dart throw. Gooch is the most likely winner by my math, but Westwood can be viewed as a pivot since he is one of the more likely third options in the field to advance.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Talor Gooch
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Lee Westwood
- Richard Bland
Group 8 - Dustin Johnson, Max Homa, Mackenzie Hughes, Matthew Wolff
I don't have any interest in Matthew Wolff, but I could easily make a case for the other three. Dustin Johnson is statistically the most likely to advance, but I will be pivoting away if his ownership remains one of the 10 highest in the field. Homa has a similar issue right now, and the contrarian pivot would be Mackenzie Hughes, who enters the week with no form but could find a way to turn that around if his putter gets hot. My early lean is Homa, but let's see where that ownership ends up.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Dustin Johnson
- Max Homa
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Matthew Wolff
Group 5 - Scottie Scheffler, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Ian Poulter, Tommy Fleetwood
This is a tough group. Scottie Scheffler and Matthew Fitzpatrick are two of the hottest golfers in the world. Ian Poulter is one of the top match-play golfers for these contests. And Fleetwood was unlucky not to knock Billy Horschel out last year when they entered single-elimination. From a DFS perspective, Fitzpatrick creates the best early leverage if you are trying to get unique.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Ian Poulter
- Tommy Fleetwood
Group 12 - Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Thomas Pieters, Min Woo Lee
Some early sharp money has come in on Thomas Pieters, but I likely will be playing things safe with either Billy Horschel or Tom Hoge.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Billy Horschel
- Tom Hoge
- Thomas Pieters
- Min Woo Lee
Group 13 - Tyrrell Hatton, Daniel Berger, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Si Woo Kim
I don't think you can go wrong with either Daniel Berger or Tyrrell Hatton, but one of the top-six players in my model will not be advancing out of this round, and the edges are razor-thin between the two.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Daniel Berger
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Si Woo Kim
Group 4 - Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Seamus Power, Keith Mitchell
That is not a typo in the likelihood ranking portion. I am fading Patrick Cantlay this week for a multitude of reasons and will be using Sungjae Im or Seamus Power for leverage.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Sungjae Im
- Seamus Power
- Patrick Cantlay
- Keith Mitchell
Group 2 - Collin Morikawa, Sergio Garcia, Jason Kokrak, Robert MacIntyre
I don't have a strong early stance on these four. Jason Kokrak should be the contrarian pivot, but I'm going to let numbers keep coming in before making a decision.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Collin Morikawa
- Jason Kokrak
- Sergio Garcia
- Robert MacIntyre
Group 15 - Webb Simpson, Brian Harman, Abraham Ancer, Bubba Watson
Group 15 is quietly one of the most difficult if you are trying to advance and one of the more popular in terms of there being multiple plays. I am not sure I am ready to go back to Webb Simpson quite yet, especially considering his record at this event, but don't be shocked if he plays spoiler for who does make the final 16.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Abraham Ancer
- Webb Simpson
- Brian Harman
- Bubba Watson
Group 10 - Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Paul Casey, Alex Noren
Three of the top-20 win percentage players are in this group, and then you have Corey Conners, who went 0-3 last year at the event. None of that will stop me from using the Canadian, and I think he provides an excellent mixture of ownership discount and salary savings.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Corey Conners
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Paul Casey
- Alex Noen
Group 7 - Xander Schaufele, Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert, Takumi Kanaya
Tony Finau and Lucas Herbert bring a random mix of issues to Xander Schauffele that might make this more difficult to advance than it looks on paper, but it is hard to find much to not like about Xander, who graded first overall in my model.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Xander Schauffele
- Tony Finau
- Lucas Herbert
- Takumi Kanaya
Group 6 - Justin Thomas, Marc Leishman, Kevin Kisner, Luke List
Can someone find a way to take out Justin Thomas? Perhaps. On paper, this is one of the three most difficult groups to advance from, which means I likely will try my hand with Leishman for leverage.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Justin Thomas
- Marc Leishman
- Kevin Kisner
- Luke List
Group 11 - Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose
The margins between these four are separated by the smallest amount of any group. None are overall strong picks moving forward either, and I will likely ignore the group for DFS and have them be one-and-done on a bracket.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Adam Scott
- Jordan Spieth
- Keegan Bradley
- Justin Rose
Group 14 - Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley, Kevin Na, Maverick McNealy
I am not sure I could have drawn up a better group for Russell Henley. The American tends to struggle with his par-five scoring, yet he gets a group where everyone ranks outside the top-30 in this field.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Russell Henley
- Joaquin Niemann
- Kevin Na
- Maverick McNealy
Group 3 - Viktor Hovland, Cameron Tringale, Will Zalatoris, Sepp Straka
My numbers love Viktor Hovland to make it out of group 3.
My Likelihood Rank:
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Tringale
- Will Zalatoris
- Sepp Straka
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