RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Max Homa captured his second career PGA Tour title, putting together a masterful display of all-around golf on Sunday at Riviera Country Club. It was an emotional victory for the hometown product, who used to envision himself winning at this venue as a kid. Homa looked as if he had the event all but won after stuffing his iron to three-feet on the final hole of regulation, but a slight pull left caused his putt to lip out and force a playoff with Tony Finau. The trouble then continued on the first hole of the sudden-death after his drive rested against the tree's base, but Homa was able to escape danger with a magnificent second shot and eventual birdie miss from Finau. The 30-year-old wrapped up the event a hole later after his opponent could not get up-and-down for par out of the bunker, giving him the victory out in Los Angeles.
We were able to hit Max Homa at odds of 66/1 inside of my Vegas Report article, making it the second consecutive Sunday triumph for that piece. With the outright success, head-to-head run and top-20 production, we are now sitting up over 23 units of profit early in the year. That moves our total to just below 200 units since 2017, and I hope we can crack that milestone here in Florida during the WGC-Workday Championship
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - WGC Workday Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
The Concession
7,474 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
Named for Jack Nicklaus' act of sportsmanship in conceding Tony Jacklin's two-foot putt at the 1969 Ryder Cup - one that would have won the Cup outright for the United States if Jacklin had missed - Concession Golf Club looks to be anything but forgiving and accommodating.
These tests are typically tricky to grade from a statistical perspective because of the lack of data we have on hand, but there were a few things that stuck out to me during my early research. For starters, Concession looks more like it belongs in California than it does Florida. Towering oak trees line the property, and the greenery throughout enhances the feeling that we are playing a venue like Sherwood Country Club and not that of a location known for swampland.
Total driving looks as if it will be crucial with the property coming in at nearly 7,500 yards, and your usual U.S. Open template of sand save percentage, scrambling, short game, long irons and bogey avoidance/opportunities gained should play a factor. I do think it is worth noting that the PGA Tour only had roughly 1.5 months to get this venue into tip-top shape after being forced to move it from Mexico to Florida, which could reduce some of the bite many are expecting, but it wouldn't shock me to see the greens turned up a few levels to make up for anything they feel might be missing. Nicklaus designs are always recognized for their strategic layout, and I think understanding where to miss your drives and irons will be significant in deciding a winner.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Concession | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 6.5/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy at 16/1 and Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay at 18/1.
Key Stats
- OTT+App 15%
- Total Driving 15%
- Weighted Par-Five 12.5%
- Around The Green 10%
- Weighted Putting/Scrambling 10%
- Weighted Par-Three 10%
- Par-Four Average 10%
- Sand Save Percentage 10%
- SG Total High Wind 7.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Dustin Johnson ($11,600)
Suppose we believe Concession is going to play like a U.S. Open venue. In that case, there isn't a player in the world with a better pedigree on challenging tracks. Johnson has finished inside of the top-six five times during his last seven appearances at the U.S. Open and brings the form needed to capture his seventh WGC title. We are splitting hairs here if we are looking for reasons not to play the American, but his reduction in ownership might be one that pushes us firmly onto the DJ train.
Jon Rahm ($11,100)
I mentioned this during my appearance on Owen Vrabel's and Matt Miller's DrawsNFades podcast this week, but it is actually Jon Rahm - not Dustin Johnson - that graded out to be the player with my highest win equity for the event. Rahm is someone I have been beating the drum for these past few tournaments because of how he has been striking his driver and irons, and it feels as if we are just one hot putting contest away from the Spaniard finally getting himself back into the winner's circle. The early consensus throughout the industry has pushed Rahm into being the highest projected owned played on the board, but I'd have to imagine we see that reduce marginally as we get closer to Thursday. People are still riding his hot Sunday round and likely will convince themselves to look elsewhere as the tournament draws closer.
Xander Schauffele ($10,800)
I've been higher on Xander Schauffele than most of the community over the past few years and have to say that I don't have any grievances with him coming in as the third-priced golfer. Schauffele has put together 16 straight top-25 results and draws a venue that should be tailor-made for his style. Other than Rahm, there might not be a player with a more complete game to deal with the test of the unknown, and the no-cut nature of the week should provide us a chance to catch one of his fiery explosions on DraftKings.
Rory McIlroy ($10,400)
I really wanted to stick my flag into the ground for Rory McIlroy and even mentioned that it was my plan to do so during my Vegas Report article for the Genesis Invitational. It is just hard to feel comfortable going back down the well on McIlroy, who looked about as lost as I have ever seen tee-to-green. Bermuda is a much-preferred surface for the Irishman, and there are some trends that point in his favor after a missed cut, but it will have to come from a GPP standpoint if we want to buy back into the eighth-ranked player in the world. I am not opposed to being aggressive on a golfer that might go under-owned, but there is some risk involved.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,000)
Gamers were left with a sour taste in their mouth after Patrick Cantlay struggled on the weekend at the Genesis Invitational - placing the American in a share of 15th place. It was an unlikely finish for the seventh-ranked player in the world after looking like one of the favorites to take home the title during the first two days, but let's not be overly critical on Cantlay. The 28-year-old is a great wind player, and if you are concerned with the short putts he missed in California, he has historically been a better Bermuda putter.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
I mentioned how Bryson DeChambeau was the ultimate wild-card in California, and he remains just that this week in Florida. A lot of DraftKings players are going to look elsewhere after the abysmal effort he displayed over two rounds on a test that should have suited his game, but I wouldn't be so quick to abandon the ship. There are a handful of lengthy par-threes at Concession, and I find optimism with my model ranking the 27-year-old first when it comes to par-three scoring from over 200 yards. Trust me, he can crash and burn again, but DeChambeau is prideful with his work ethic and will try to get past his failed venture quickly.
Daniel Berger ($9,300)
Can Daniel Berger win in back-to-back starts? That remains to be seen, but I am all for the DFS investment if it means we can grab a player that might get the "recent winner" treatment. The industry always underuses a golfer in his next start, and I think we just need to accept the fact that Berger is a top-10 player in the world at this point.
Webb Simpson ($9,100)
Webb Simpson's weakness off the tee is my one real concern if this venue plays extremely long, but we are receiving a price tag here that is negatively weighing most of his downside. Simpson has some of the most erratic projections when diving into this field, but his first-place ranking in bogey avoidance and Bermuda putting is a unique combination for a player that also ranks inside the top-two in all my weighted scoring categories for the tournament.
Will Zalatoris ($8,000)
Will Zalatoris has shown an ability early in his career to play challenging golf courses well. A sixth-place result at the U.S. Open in September is one of the small examples we can point towards, but the list goes on and on when we look at his recent top-15 results at the Genesis Invitational and Farmers Insurance Open. I have a feeling that our days of getting Zalatoris inside of the $8,000 range might be numbered, and we should take advantage of them when we have a shot.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Harris English ($7,500)
After back-to-back missed cuts, Harris English has seen a quick correction in salary on DraftKings - one that has dropped him to being the 30th priced player in the field. To me, this is a steep overcorrection for a golfer that had demonstrated quality form for nearly a year before his recent cold stretch, and I like the chance we get to grab him at a discount on Bermuda greens. English only ranks behind Webb Simpson in my model when it comes to weighted putting/scrambling, and we see him place a respectable second in overall bogey avoidance.
Kevin Na ($6,800)
If searching for random win equity down on the board, we could do a lot worse than Kevin Na. The 37-year-old has shown a propensity to find the winner's circle with three victories since 2019, and it should help matters that he ranks second in this field on fast greens. A withdrawal is always possible, which would hurt even more in a no-cut event, but it is hard to find a golfer with more upside in the $6,000 range.
Brendon Todd ($6,400)
To be honest, I've never played Brendon Todd before. I tend to dislike his iron play, especially from longer distances, but consider me intrigued here in Florida. Todd has a style of game that might be able to keep mistakes at a minimum, and we see him grading inside the top-five in pretty much every short game metric that I have on my model this week. The American has shown random spurts of scoring in the past, and he is my biggest price discrepancy on the DraftKings slate. I would have slotted him in about $1,000 higher and believe that is enough to take a flier with potential.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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