RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - AT&T Byron Nelson
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Craig Ranch
7,468 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
Those that read this article weekly will know that I am not a fan of courses with limited data. Pretty much everything I do from a handicapping process revolves around being able to crunch numbers from past results, and while this week isn't a total lost cause since we do have the 2021 stats to rummage through when building a model, the overall landscape of TPC Craig Ranch still leaves a lot to be desired.
The first issue with tracking the venue comes down to the restricted sample size that I mentioned a second ago. That headache will always force our hands in trying to break down the ins and outs of a facility, but to me, more of the problem starts coming into play when we dive into the 2021 weather-altered event, where a massive torrential downpour turned the course into a distance-deprived layout that lacked fairway rollout for the field. In fairness, that doesn't mean what we saw transpire won't still ring true in the second go-around, but I have a hard time believing that 34.5% of second shots will come from beyond 200 yards again - even if it means reducing the projection by a handful of percentage points.
During weeks like this, I prefer going with what we can see as an answer on the surface and not trying to big-brain a model to fit some forced narrative. I would suggest looking at historical trends at Bentgrass courses, TPC properties, easy scoring conditions, venues over 7,400 yards and wind play, which in turn allows a more condensed model that starts to hone in on a course-specific blueprint versus a potentially flawed return. From there, we can filter in some of the outlier statistics that I believe can gain us an advantage if we do happen to be correct in our assessment, but I want to make sure any of the substantial totality of the weight is focused on the easy-to-decipher and tangible numbers that can't be refuted for the week.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Craig Ranch | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 288 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 70% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 65% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.39 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted OTT + APP (15%)
- Strokes Gained Total Wind (10%)
- SG Total Bent + Bent Putting (15%)
- SG Total TPC Properties (15%)
- Strokes Gained Total Easy Scoring + Easy-to-Hit Fairways (12.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Over 7,400 Yards + Long Irons (12.5%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Scottie Scheffler leads the way at $10,900 on DraftKings and brings some of the best current form we have seen since the heyday of Tiger Woods. The American has won four of his past six starts, including taking down the Masters and WGC MatchPlay, and it shouldn't hurt that he graded inside the top-22 in all seven categories that I looked into for the week. Scheffler's second-place overall mark in my model and first-place total for safety are continuations of the the positive metrics you will find across the board, and he has been the best golfer in the field when it comes to par-five birdie or better percentage over my two-year running model.
Moving down the board by $300, we land on Justin Thomas ($10,600), who has done just about everything but win during the 2022 calendar season. Thomas leads this field with 19 consecutive made cuts, including seven straight rounds of shooting par or better - good for third in this field, and the statistical upside is highlighted by him showing inside the top-four in six of the seven statistics I used to derive an upside rank.
Dustin Johnson ($10,200) looks to be the early contrarian pivot in the $10,000 section if you are trying to create leverage, and to be honest, I can't find much of a reason to avoid using him when we look past the fact that he just got married. I am not sure that is a negative factor when we know Johnson's upside can take down the course, and the sub-10 percent mark looks enticing if you want to swing for the fence.
And the last option for us to consider is Jordan Spieth ($10,100). Golf's 'Golden Child' feels like more of a GPP target than a cash-game play because of his known volatility, but the top-15 marks that I have on him for wind play, TPC courses and par-five scoring makes Spieth worth some extra consideration in MME builds. Overall, the entire section looks pretty stout from top-to-bottom, and a lot of the decisions will need to come later in the week when ownership starts settling in a bit more than we see it right now.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
There is a lot of ownership in the $9,000s but also a ton of quality choices worth considering. Let's mention a few of my early candidates that I will be taking a deeper look at throughout the week.
I don't know how many more times I can fall into this Xander Schauffele ($9,700) trap that piques my curiosity weekly, but let's see where the popularity is for him come Wednesday night. At less than 10 percent, I don't mind betting on his statistical prowess since he grades as my second-best upside option for my model, but you should know that there will be more uncertainty around playing Schauffele than most other choices in this section. That is a gamble I am willing to take at the correct ownership mark, but let's wait and see.
Sam Burns ($9,500), Will Zalatoris ($9,400) and Joaquin Niemann ($9,300) are where all the early returns are heading as of Monday afternoon, which is one of the reasons why Schauffele and Brooks Koepka ($9,200) are going overlooked, but I don't have a single player that fails to crack the top-18 in some iteration of an overall rank or win equity standpoint. To me, that means ownership is going to play a crucial factor, and we do have options to get "cute" if we decide to be more aggressive than others.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
There is a lot to like in the $8,000s, as five of the choices graded as positive values. Adam Scott ($8,700), Talor Gooch ($8,600), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400), Jason Kokrak ($8,300) and Aaron Wise ($8,100) would be my early leans in this section, with Gooch, Vegas and Wise being the three most likely choices I will find myself backing come Thursday.
Starting with Talor Gooch, my biggest concern would come down to how his OTT prowess handles a wide-open venue that does allow you to find success with a driver in hand, but I am willing to overlook some of those red flags due to his shown ability to produce at wide-open courses over 7,400 yards. Gooch ranks seventh in set-ups that mimic TPC Craig Ranch, and he also finds the majority of his proximity upside from deeper distances - something we know will play a factor after over 30% of approach shots came from over 200 yards in 2021.
After some anxiety around the health of Jhonattan Vegas at the Wells Fargo - something we were thankfully able to overlook for the week - the Venezuelan comes in as the most significant model differential we have talked about so far. Vegas ranks fifth in this field for both upside and overall outputs in my sheet, and his combination of weighted OTT + APP place him inside the top five of the event.
And while the playability for Aaron Wise is going to come down to if he can get under 15% by Thursday, the form has turned around with back-to-back top-21 finishes. I like his compilation of driver + iron success, and the par-five scoring and wind ability that he brings to the table makes him a sneaky threat to win the title at 50/1.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
That is a long list that will need to be worked through to lower playable choices, but there is a lot to consider. Options like Luke List ($7,300) and Matthew Wolff ($7,200) both have quality upsides that might be worth taking a chance on in GPPs, and there are a handful of under-the-radar alternatives like Lee Westwood ($7,000), Bubba Watson ($7,500) and Kevin Kisner ($7,500) that could grabbed for less than two percent ownership if everything shakes out correctly.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
If I am being honest, how much can we trust the $6,000 range this week? Pat Perez is the highest-ranked golfer at 41st overall/31st for upside, and it is challenging to find many picks you are going to feel safe about making. The image above shows all the players inside the top-65 for overall or upside that also graded as a positive value, and while we don't have a ton to pick between, there are some we can consider.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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