RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Charles Schwab Challenge
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Colonial Country Club
7,209 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass
Colonial Country Club is one of the shortest courses on tour at 7,209 yards, but don't let the lack of length confuse you. It is essential to note that the daily scorecard quite often plays as a venue that stretches 200 yards less than the total I mentioned above, but short has not always equaled easy, as the property has ranked inside the top-10 in terms of difficulty over the last handful of years. That answer gives us a little bit of a mixed bag regarding what we should expect out of the venue, and the explanation takes another turn for the worse when we try to identify a particular playing style that might be most conducive for the field. Bombers such as Jason Kokrak have won here. Accurate golfers like Kevin Na and Kevin Kisner have hoisted the title. And all of that, unfortunately, starts pointing in the dreaded direction of this being a "putting contest," where the data isn't signaling a resolution.
When looking into Colonial, the first thing that stuck out to me was the tree-lined fairways that tend to stymie second shots from advancing as anything more than a punch-out. That should naturally make you enhance some combination of either total driving or fairways gained, and we see that point become pronounced a second time when looking at the lay of the land. Forced layups off the tee will help stretch the distance of the course, and the venue is cut in a fashion to try and make the field plod their way from shot to shot. That means the ability to connect with the short grass off the tee and then dial in your irons into these smaller-than-average greens will turn this from the feared putting contest that often makes for a terrible betting week and instead into more of a hybrid version that will highlight proximity ranges - even if putting still does play a vital part in the outcome.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Colonial Country Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 277 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 57% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 63% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.44 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Strokes Gained Total (100%) - One statistic might sound like a basic model, but as everyone knows by now, I like to expand the rudimentary information into a much broader breakdown. You can hear the ins and outs of what went into this during Bettor Golf on Tuesday, but it is a combination of what we discussed in the course breakdown portion and includes a deeper dive into corollary putting numbers from specific proximity ranges.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
I mentioned some of my concerns with Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) on Bentgrass greens last week at the PGA Championship. I know that statement can be taken in a few different directions because it fails to look into the success he has found this season with the flat stick on the surface, which you don't have to look back any further than his win at the Masters, but three of the four titles have come on a Bermuda grass-type of some sort, and it is one of the reasons he experiences the second-steepest decline in my model when comparing all greens to just Bent. Don't get me wrong, the American has the game to get around those problems, but two finishes outside the top-50 at the track in two tries doesn't leave me overly optimistic about his high-end potential. Scheffler feels like an MME-only play if you want to consider him at his sub-10 percent mark, but there are much better routes to go if you are trying to lock in a cash-game build.
At the time of writing this article, Justin Thomas ($11,000) is still in the field at Colonial. The early concern around him withdrawing after capturing the PGA Championship has given us a suppressed ownership total of 11% - good for the 20th-best total in the field - but it is hard to find much to nitpick about with his fit for the venue. If Thomas confirms that he is going to tee it up, I love the idea of seizing the leverage that is being created early in the week - just keep an eye on if we see him withdraw before Thursday.
And then the last player I want to highlight on either side of the spectrum in this section is Collin Morikawa ($10,700). I have admitted to historically being one of the biggest pessimists when it comes to Morikawa, but fire up the engines at Colonial, as the 25-year-old is my top-ranked golfer for the week. While the American did grade marginally behind Thomas when it came to weighted proximity, he flipped the script when looking at good drive percentage - a category that helped propel him as the man to beat in Texas.
Favorite Play: Collin Morikawa ($10,700)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
My opinion on this matter might be subject to change, but three names are sticking out when looking primarily at GPP builds. Let's start at the top and work our way down.
Sam Burns ($9,700) is the kind of target we should be looking for in GPP contests. The floor might be lower than some of his counterparts after a shaky few months where he missed two cuts before finishing inside the top-20 at the PGA Championship, but that volatility is worth a gamble when you can get a prototype of a golfer that exudes upside and underutilized ownership. Burns is currently outside the top 20 names in popularity at his 10.9% mark, but the potential is evident - highlighted by grading as the best win equity player in the field. Burns' combination of iron play, total driving and putting acumen gives us a complete golfer to consider, and the mixture of scoring only adds to that equation.
Moving down the board, we get to Abraham Ancer ($9,300). The 31-year-old always finds himself best suited for potential win equity at these courses where fairways and greens work in unison, and his combination of ranking seventh in weighted driving to go along with 16th in weighted proximity makes him one of the more interesting targets on the board. Ancer's ninth-place result at the PGA Championship shows the form is starting to return to where it was a few months ago, and the picture becomes even grander when peeking into his 19-spot improvement on Bentgrass greens versus a random test.
And we will wrap up this range with Tony Finau ($9,100). Unlike Ancer, I haven't decided if Finau will be someone I am overweight to in my player pool for GPP contests, but I do love the safety he brings to the table if the ownership can hover around 10% for the week. Perhaps this becomes a better cash-game answer than anything else, but let's continue to keep an eye on where the public goes over the next handful of days.
Favorite Play: Abraham Ancer ($9,300)
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
My model is pushing towards Webb Simpson ($8,700) and Kevin Na ($8,100) being the two best targets on the board when we ignore ownership. I will have outright tickets on each at 48/1 and 60/1, respectively, and their accuracy games should suit the venue well. We have seen the duo post three top-five finishes combined since 2017 at Colonial, including Na's win here in 2019, but I will also be monitoring the ownership of Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800) and Mito Pereira ($8,600). Those two choices will need to work out correctly when it comes to potential leverage, but there is a reason why this is #WebbWeek. Don't listen to my Bettor Golf co-host StixPicks if he says otherwise.
Favorite Play: Spiderman ($8,700)
***Picture credit to TheModelManiac
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
That is a long list that will need to be worked through to lower playable choices, but there is a lot to consider. Justin Rose ($7,700) is my favorite play in the section. Stewart Cink ($7,100) is going to create the best leverage for the entire event. And then we have other blue marks across the board from Erik Van Rooyen ($7,300), Joel Dahmen ($7,200), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600) and Brendon Todd ($7,000).
Favorite Play: Justin Rose ($7,700)
Once again, credit to TheModelManiac. The image was too good to ignore. I will not be shocked if Rose wins the event this week. You can catch Byron every week here at RotoBaller when he does his 'Breaking $100' article - one of the best dives weekly into the betting board. Byron provides his favorite outrights, first-round leaders, placement bets, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. I will post the link to this week's article when he gets it posted. Be sure to check back!
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
Doug Ghim ($6,700) grades as the top player in the $6,000 range. You can work your way through the image above to see all the options that have qualified in one capacity or another. Like always, ownership will play a deciding factor if I find myself down in this section.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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