RADIO
Before we get into the course breakdown this week, I want to talk about game theory because split course tournaments add a nuanced approach to the handicapping process. On the surface, quantifiable data should provide a more significant edge to the DFS player or bettor that can properly traverse through the minefield of stats, but at what point do we get caught up in failing to recognize the difference between vanity (unimportant) and actionable (specific and repeatable) metrics.
You don't have to look any further than the trend from 2011 to 2018 that saw every winner of this week's Farmers Insurance Open play the South Course Thursday and North Course Friday. The general belief from most pundits during that eight-year run was that golfers who had to play three consecutive rounds at the more challenging South setup were at too harsh of a disadvantage because of the discrepancy in difficulty between the tracks. That led to many fantasy gamers blindly stacking their builds to what they perceived to be the optimal route for success, but it has proven detrimental over the past three years after each victor flipped the script and started on the North before ending with the once dreaded barrage at the South.
And all of that is what I am trying to explain in a nutshell. Trends will always be dangerous to track, but even the idea of extra information isn't necessarily a benefit if we don't figure out what is essential and how to use it in a simplistic yet calculated manner. We will dive into what I think can be extrapolated in a tangible sense this weekend at Torrey Pines, but please try to think critically for yourself! There isn't necessarily a correct answer on the surface, which is why we can still create an edge over other users.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Farmers Insurance Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Torrey Pines (South)
7,698 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa
Torrey Pines will always have a soft spot in my heart since it is the first course I ever covered when I got into this industry, but it continues to hold its place on my Mount Rushmore of tournaments for more reasons than a nostalgic trip down memory lane. The property was designed by William F. Bell in the 1950s, but experienced a re-design in 2001 by Rees Jones in preparation for the 2008 U.S. Open. Beautiful scenery and views encompass the 36 holes of golf spread out between the North and South properties over the opening two days of the event, but as I mentioned in the intro, everyone who makes the weekend will play both of their rounds back at the South setup. That awkward distribution can be a tricky split when modeling the pertinent data into actionable metrics, but I will quickly run through both stops and see if we can't find a discernible connection between the two layouts.
The South plays almost two strokes more complicated than the North on average. We still have a massive deviation in yardage where the South stands nearly 440 yards longer than the one-off location, but the narrow fairways, thick rough and fast Poa grass that each design possesses has turned the overall configuration of the event into one of the most challenging four days in golf.
From a statistical standpoint, there is a fine line between how to handle the minor differences. The North requires marginally better iron play than the South, making around the green slightly more applicable, but I do think we start doing more of a disservice to our models than good when we begin to alter the plurality of the data to fit a set narrative that might only be functional a few time during the week. I highly recommend making a copy of my spreadsheet if you want to weigh the information yourself, but here is what I am using from a statistical perspective for the Farmers Insurance Open. I believe it provides a steady dispersion of the more critical South data while still filtering in the two courses' connections.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Driving Distance | 285 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 51% | 58% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.73 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage (20%) - In my opinion, there is an over-complication regarding the differences between the two stops. Yes, 440 yards is a stark difference, but 233 of that comes on the four par-fives. While both locations see these holes as their four easiest scoring chances, the reduction of length at the North provides an increase of 15.22% over the South in terms of birdie or better percentage at those four particular spots. Golfers will need to score any time they get a par-five, but the inability to do so at the North might prove extremely costly.
- Weighted Proximity 150+ Yards (15%) - If you know me, you know that I love to redistribute the proximity totals on my end to mimic the property's exact specifications. Strokes gained data in any category is only as valuable as the connection it can draw to the course in front of the golfers, but I decided to amplify the percentages to simulate a venue that only had iron play coming from 150 yards and beyond. The reason for that comes down to two core reasons. For starters, 66.1% of approaches will take place from this distance — including an increase from a typical tour event of 6.5% more shots from 175 yards and beyond. But more importantly, it is the severity and impact of the long iron shots that we get for why I made this change. The winner of this event will be the one that can create opportunities on the par-fives and manage scores on the challenging par-fours and lengthy par-threes. That is that precise range over and over again.
- Ball-Striking (15%) - The PGA Tour's definition of the term is marginally different than the socially accepted variant that looks at a combination of off the tee and approach play. So in this example, it is a recalculated metric I made that takes 75% driving distance and combines it to 25% accuracy to form my total driving stat. I then incorporate that new number into 70% of my weight versus 30% greens in regulation to get the ball-striking total. We need players that hit it long and straight since the rough can be nearly a half-stroke penalty. The GIR percentage added to it propels that notion and eliminates some of the tricky situations that come into play when you do miss the putting surface.
- Weighted Short Game (15%) - Like the example above, I am trying to enrich my numbers to equal a more pertinent metric that can amplify our long-term success. I used three categories of three-putt percentage, strokes gained around the green and sand save percentage to get my new weighted short game statistic.
- Long Par-Threes + Long Par-Fours (10%) - For lack of a better term, these will be your survival holes. We are looking for golfers that will be able to salvage their scores with their ability to play from the specified distances needed. I took par-threes over 200 yards and combined them with the par-fours over 450, which gave me a scoring total to weigh next to bogey avoidance.
- Strokes Gained Total On Long/Difficult Courses (10%) - Categories like this are easily put together and often provide us with the truest definition of what we have in store. If nothing else is certain, you can't fake the yardage on the scorecard.
- Combined Poa (15%) - I merged strokes gained total on Poa and strokes gained putting on Poa to get my new projection. I liked that assortment because it highlighted a comprehensive array of the surface and not just the total aspect where bad putters got away with no repercussion to their total.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($11,200) - We might want to start calling this the Jon Rahm category for the foreseeable future. The 27-year-old has made nine of his past 10 cuts, posting every finish inside the top-17 when we remove his head-scratcher at the Fortinet in September. Rahm's ability to combine a mixture of distance and accuracy ranks him first in the field, and the cards continue to turn up Spanish red when we dive into just his history at Torrey Pines. Rahm took down the U.S. Open in 2021 to win his first major title, and he has also produced four other top-seven results — including a 2017 victory at the track.
- Most Upside: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - The local narrative hasn't always been a positive for Xander Schauffele, who started his career at Torrey Pines as if he were the 1969 expansion San Diego Padres team that couldn't hit a pitch off a tee of their own. The main difference between those two examples is that the Padres were meant to be bottom-feeders early in their careers. I don't think it shocked many when they struggled out of the gates, but Xander's floundering hit a different level because of his natural setup to the track that seemed like an ideal location for him to dominate for years to come. We have since seen the 28-year-old post three top-25 finishes during his last four stops at Torrey, but Schauffele is more of a boom-or-bust than anyone would care to recognize for the time being. I believe we get the best version of him, which is good enough to win the event, but let's keep an eye on his popularity.
- Favorite GPP Play: Justin Thomas ($10,900) - I understand the concerns around Justin Thomas. We haven't seen him at the Farmers since 2015 — an event where he missed the cut, but his 19th-place finish during the 2021 U.S. Open might be more telling for his chances than one might imagine. Thomas entered the back-nine on that day at Torrey Pines with a real shot to win his second major, but multiple hiccups at the par-four 10th and par-three 16th sent the American plummeting off the first page of the leaderboard. It is hard to compare apples-to-oranges when trying to look at a major championship versus a more accessible PGA Tour event, but the removal of some difficulty is going to be a massive benefit for the former number one golfer in the world. By no means is Thomas a poor player at challenging courses, but he goes from the top-ranked player on tour by my metrics in a birdie fest to 25th in this field at a more demanding track. While things won't come easy this week, it isn't impossible to score and take advantage of some of these par-fives.
- Fade: None - Dustin Johnson ($10,300) is technically my least favorite target in this range, but anything under 10 percent might start to turn him into a contrarian pivot. It is challenging to find many full-fade type plays.
- Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - The breakthrough victory at Torrey Pines is going to happen at some point.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Marc Leishman ($9,000) - We have seen an Australian dominance at this tournament over the years. Marc Leishman was able to win this himself in 2020, which goes along with Jason Day taking home the title twice in 2015 and 2018. Oh, how I will find ways to fit Day into any section or tournament that I write about weekly. But the success isn't some random outlier that should be overlooked. Kikuya grass is a sticky texture that drives most pros wild because of the inconsistency of how the ball comes off your club, but it is something most natives of Australia deal with all the time while growing up. Leishman has been crediting his experience with the surface for years as to why he has dominated throughout his career at this property, and he ranks fourth overall on my model when trying to find cash-game safety.
- Most Upside: Tony Finau ($9,100) - To go back to a statement that I made at the beginning of this article, the Farmers Insurance Open was the first tournament I ever covered from a gambling or DFS standpoint, and Tony Finau was the poster boy for that article when it came to my pick to win the event. At the time, Finau was struggling to find his second career win on tour, and most pundits weren't all that eager to credit him fully for his triumph at the Puerto Rico Open. It was one of those situations where you knew a player was better than the number of wins he had to his name, and it was only a matter of time before everything started to break in his favor. Now, I am not sure we have fully gotten the Finau breakout that I anticipated, but I've always said that Torrey Pines will eventually be a tournament he adds to his mantle before his career is finished. There are some concerns with his form entering the event this season, but his course history reads like a beautiful novel that is lacking the final punctuation mark to wrap up the story.
- Favorite GPP Play: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900) - Let's ignore the missed cuts from Bryson DeChambeau here in 2017 and 2018. That is generally not a stance you will hear me take, especially at a venue where course history matters, but the American has transformed his body more than any golfer I have ever seen. I don't think the 175-pound version of DeChambeau from 2017 quite compares to the shredded 240-pound rendition we have of him today, and we shouldn't be treating past results from him in that fashion either. There is always a downside when you back the big-hitter on any DFS slate, but the fact that we get him both sub-$10,000 on DraftKings and sub-10 percent in popularity is enough for me to find myself bulked up in exposure.
- Fade: None - I know these are boring answers, but it is hard to fade what the industry is already ignoring. The lack of intrigue around guys like Jordan Spieth ($9,400) or even Dustin Johnson in the section above turns some of these golfers into interesting contrarian pivots, even if they aren't my go-to choices.
- Most Likely Winner: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Ryan Palmer ($8,100) - Ryan Palmer might be able to create some savings in salary at his $8,100 price tag if my model is correct about him being the fifth safest player on the board. Much of that ranking stems from his four consecutive top-21 finishes at this event, but we even see it from a statistical perspective, with him ranking inside the top-30 in ball-striking, par-five birdie or better percentage and weighted proximity over 150 yards. Part of me believes Maverick McNealy should be the answer to this question with his 14 made cuts in 15 starts, but I will trust my math being correct over my intuition.
- Most Upside: Matthew Wolff ($8,500) - After burning the industry last week at the American Express, Matthew Wolff gets a lucrative bounce-back opportunity at the Farmers Insurance Open. There is always going to be extreme volatility around him. I noted this last week when discussing his chances, but this is a better setup to get the most out of his game. Wolff ranks seventh in my model for par-five scoring and is inside the top-five for distance and proximity 150 yards and beyond.
- Favorite GPP Play: Max Homa ($8,400) - Par-five birdie or better. Poa scoring. Those are two of the most critical statistics we can use this week to try and locate potential longshots down the board, and Max Homa places himself into excellent territory alongside Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Sam Burns as one of only five golfers to rank inside the top-10 of both categories. Those other four players are priced at $9,700 or above, making Homa a bargain with upside potential at $8,400.
- Fade: Corey Conners ($8,800) - Some red flags are poking through the cracks for Corey Conners this weekend in California. The Canadian ranks just 113th in my adjusted model for strokes gained around the green and fails to crack the top-100 in strokes gained putting on Poa greens. The iron proximity will be good for one of the best true ball-strikers in the world, but there is a danger of what happens if Conners doesn't hit as many greens as he usually does throughout his round.
- Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($8,400)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Luke List ($7,600) - I put Luke List here with some trepidation because of his 21% projection as of Monday night. I don't want to turn this into more of a runaway than we already have, but we can safely ignore ownership when trying to construct cash-game builds or even single-entry contests. List has a game that can compete at a big-boy track like the South, and we have seen him produce four straight top-40 finishes at the property since 2018.
- Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,700) - I couldn't tell you where Joaquin Niemann is with his game after missing back-to-back cuts to end the 2021 season. We haven't seen him in action for over two months now, but the pricing has undoubtedly become deflated because of the lack of information in the market. At his best, Niemann is a ball-striker that has proven deadly at these tests that require total driving and long iron play. And at his worse, well, it is the missed cut barrage we received at the end of the previous calendar year. At sub-10 percent, I don't mind taking some chances on the positives in GPPs.
- Favorite GPP Play: Wyndham Clark ($7,200) - There is a potential opening for Wyndham Clark that my model noticed when I was running some of the data. If we remove his past six starts on tour, Clark had only gained once in 15 tournaments with his irons — posting a measly half-stroke to the field at the Valspar in May. And we know this about the 28-year-old when it comes to his game. It isn’t a surprise that his proximity numbers rank near the bottom of any field he is in, but there has been a change as of late after Clark managed to gain with his irons in four of six starts — highlighted by a 13th place finish during last week’s American Express. The 220th-ranked golfer in the world has two top-40s in his three tries at Torrey Pines, and this is with him averaging nearly three shots worse to the field with his irons in those finishes.
- Fade: Hudson Swafford ($7,200) -I am not a believer in fading a golfer solely because they won a tournament the week prior, but I am someone that is going to look to fade when it bumps their stock up higher than it should be during their next start. The Georgia product hasn't made a cut at this tournament over the past five years, a lot of the stability he got from the greens at the American Express will be negated on the South Course, as he ranks 133rd on Poa over his past 50 rounds.
- Most Likely Winner: Wyndham Clark ($7,200)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
I am trying to avoid this range if possible, but Trey Mullinax at $6,200, Sepp Straka $6,300, Sahith Theegala $6,500, J.T. Poston $6,400 and Tyler McCumber $6,300 would be my dart throws. Straka is the most interesting target of the group after looking solid with his ball-striking during his past two starts. While not a good putter, Poa has historically been a different story for the Austrian.
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