RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Masters on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Masters
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Augusta National
7,510 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
Ah, the Masters! The azaleas. The Pimento Cheese. TIGER WOODS!?!?!!?! As of Friday night, it looks like Tiger will be attempting to make his return to the grandest stage that golf has to offer, as the 15-time major winner will look to defy logic in his quest for history.
Whether you are a casual fan of golf or a die-hard that eats, sleeps and breathes the sport weekly, I don't think you need me to get into the nuances of Augusta since it is the most iconic venue in the world, but it wouldn't be an article of mine if I didn't go into the statistical factors for the week.
Augusta National measures in on the scale at 7,435 yards, playing as a Par 72 that features diabolical Bentgrass greens. The speed and undulation of the property would be one of the core components for why we haven't had a first-time winner at the track since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and while some golfers still have shown the propensity to compete early in their career, the winner is not as challenging to pinpoint as some events because there are a ton of trends that eliminate a handful of the field from the very start. You can get a deeper dive into those requirements when you read my 'Seven Deadly Sins' article that I posted the other day, but this is a venue that rewards length and heightens the need for an all-around short game, including an ability to handle these fiery surfaces that are known to wreak havoc on the field.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Augusta | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 67% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 60% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 52% | 58% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.90 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted T2G (20%) - That is a redistribution of my version of strokes gained off the tee, approach and around the green. The off the tee portion looked heavily into length. The approach numbers took a recalculated proximity total to mimic past historical trends. And the around the green part was a primary component that gained heightened importance because of the undulation at the track.
- Weighted Fast Bentgrass (10%) - I took a weighted combination of strokes gained total on fast Bentgrass and strokes gained putting on fast Bentgrass.
- Weighted Par-Four (15%) - I am rounding up or down in many spots, but there are essentially nine holes that stretch between 450-to-500 yards. That puts us in a similar proximity range repeatedly, and I reconfigured some of those trends to come up with a new metric.
- Weighted Par-Five (20%) - These will be the most accessible holes on the course—each yielding between a 33.4% to 43.2% birdie or better rate. There are only two other holes over 15% at the venue, and those come in at 17-19%.
- Weighted Scrambling (15%) - I took all the random outlier stats that I could find and threw them into one spot.
- ATG + Three-Putt (20%) - I can not overstate the importance of being able to save par when you either miss the surface or are required to lag-putt from a distance.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are seven players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
The easiest way to decipher this board is to start at the top and work our way down. Scottie Scheffler comes in as the man to beat at $11,000 on DraftKings, and my initial thought about the pricing is that the sudden surge up the board might give us an overlooked version of the American. Scheffler is currently the best leverage option that I have of the first handful of names, and his three wins during his last five starts should make him a player that is primed and ready to continue his ascension in golf.
Moving our way down, Jon Rahm ($10,800), Dustin Johnson ($10,500) and Justin Thomas ($10,300) will likely go off the board on Thursday as three of the most popular choices on the slate, but it is hard to argue the fact when we look at what each as provided at the course over the past handful of years. The trio has combined for eight top-10s since 2018, including Johnson's victory here in 2020, and there has only been one result outside the top-21, which also came from DJ last year.
Rory McIlroy ($10,000) will continue to end his quest for the career grand slam. We have seen the Irishman provide a few close calls since 2015, posting five top-10 results in the process. McIlroy is the third-ranked player in this field for weighted tee-to-green, and he also enters the week fifth on fast Bentgrass greens. And then we round out the section with Collin Morikawa ($10,200) and Viktor Hovland ($10,100). Of all the choices, these two concern me the most, which is in line with how the public perceives the duo, but both Morikawa and Hovland rank outside the top-50 of this field around the green and have yet to produce a top-15 finish at the venue. If you forced me to use one for DFS purposes, Hovland would likely be my selection if trying to make a contrarian build because of his current form and pristine par-five scoring numbers, but either man would need to be dialed in with their irons to have a shot - a possibility that isn't zilch since they are two of the best iron players in the world.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
It is not ordinary to see someone outside the box crack the top of my model during the Jon Rahm era, but Cameron Smith ($9,900) has done just that because of his short game prowess. The Australian's lack of length and weighted proximity would be the only two potential red flags I could find, but the rest of his resume looks as good as his fellow countrymate Margot Robbie does during one of her starring roles. Smith grades number one in this field for proximity between 100-125 yards, around the green + three-putt, overall birdie or better percentage, par-five birdie or better percentage and strokes gained putting over his past 24 rounds, and he also cracks the top-five for weighted par-four average and putting from 5-10 feet.
What is there to say about Jordan Spieth ($9,800) that we don't say yearly? The American seems to find his way around Augusta National regardless of his form entering the week, and it is one of the reasons he has produced four top-three finishes over his last seven attempts. From a statistical perspective, Spieth's increase for both weighted tee-to-green and weighted proximity should be considered relevant because those numbers are meant to mimic the venue, and his ability to get hot with the putter has never been hidden on a fast Bent surface.
Xander Schauffele ($9,600) and Patrick Cantlay ($9,500) are two of the more intriguing options in this range that could go slightly overlooked. Xander's early returns show a golfer that has caught some of the early steam on the board, but I am not sure that remains after what he did to the vast majority of the industry at the Match-Play. I am not saying those two things are always directly correlated, but I would be surprised if the 28-year-old ended up being one of the highest owned options in this range. Cantlay, on the other hand, was my pick to win this event in 2021 before missing the cut, and while his game isn't quite where it was a few months ago, his upside is hard to top if he does happen to put the pieces together.
And that takes us to the final group of Brooks Koepka ($9,400), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300), Will Zalatoris ($9,200), Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100) and Daniel Berger ($9,000). I'd have to imagine Koepka will eat into a ton of Matsuyama's ownership after the defending champion was forced to withdraw for the second straight event because of injury. It is unfortunate timing with this ailment for Matsuyama if he cannot tee it up Thursday, but you should keep an eye on his status as we near closer to the start of the week. The same sentiment can be said about DeChambeau, who also carries a mixed bag of expectations. DeChambeau noted a while back that the venue was a Par 67 for him because of his length and the way he was able to cut off the property, but that hasn't come to fruition early in his career after failing to crack the top-25 in his past four attempts. I don't mind taking a shot on his upside at this reduced price tag, but I'd like for him to at least survive the Valero without withdrawing from the tournament before jumping into that bed.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
You will notice a ton of red in this section. The rankings are perfectly acceptable since all of the golfers (minus Tiger) crack the top-40 in some capacity, but I am all about finding value, and I struggle to believe we have a ton of names that present an overabundance of that in the $8,000 range.
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,900) is intriguing because of some of the disinterest around his price tag. My model believes he is a better cash-game play over anything else, but I might take a swing for the fence if this number hovers around 10 percent.
The same answer can be given for Talor Gooch ($8,700) and Sam Burns ($8,600). We see an early-week discrepancy in their outright numbers and DraftKings price tags, but I don't think it is impossible for either to provide a top-20 showing at the venue during their first attempts.
And the last three that I find myself landing on when trying to make builds would be Sungjae Im ($8,400), Tony Finau ($8,100) and Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000). All three players qualified as potential winners in my 'Seven Deadly Sins' article, and we should get reduced ownership with the bunch for a multitude of reasons. Im's recent form is likely more concerning than Finau's since the American seems to be back on track during a respectable showing at the Valero, and I was relieved to see Hatton finally solve the puzzle that had alluded him during last year's Masters. An 18th-place showing could be the start of brighter things to come, and he enters the week as the fourth-best player in my model when looking at his current form.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-50 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
We have a handful that fit both standards, but the 11 names above will be where I am starting when trying to find value on the slate on Friday. If you forced me to select one name, Si Woo Kim ($7,100) would be my early lean.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-50 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
I know the popular thing to say during majors is that pricing is soft, but the $6,000 section doesn't excite me as much as usual. Someone like Mackenzie Hughes ($6,300), Kevin Na ($6,800), Lucas Herbert ($6,400) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,700) might have the short games to find success at Augusta, but we are starting to pinpoint a specific skillset more than a high-end upside.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
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