RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - FedEx St. Jude Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Southwind
7,244 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
It is important to remember that TPC Southwind spent most of its time on the PGA Tour as a lower-tiered event for many years - only making the jump up to the WGC in 2019. While past data is still worth looking into since it tells some of what to expect, the last three seasons likely will be the best corollary you will find because of the quality of the field and the change from Bent to Bermuda grass.
In general, the venue is much larger than it may appear on paper, which adds some extra research for us on the handicapping front. The par-fours are lengthy and feature seven holes that stretch over 450 yards. Seventy-six bunkers and 11 water hazards add to the potential hiccups along the way, and unlike some weeks where the water is just there for show, TPC Southwind punishes errant shots. More balls find the lake here than any other course on tour, and despite some relatively decent scores over the years, the venue consistently plays as one of the 15 most challenging that we see every season.
Eight of the last 10 winners have led the field in strokes gained tee to green for the week, so we will attempt to pinpoint players who excel in that area. And an extra addition of approach play - both from a strokes-gained standpoint and overall proximity metric - mixed with ball-striking, opportunities gained, TPC scoring and par-four scoring should give us a pretty good blueprint for how to attack the event in our research.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Southwind | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 285 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 56% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 59% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.46 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Tee-To-Green (30%) - How someone performs tee-to-green might require a more significant emphasis on a particular metric if we try to mimic the data to fit a specific course. For that reason, I created a massive disparity in the raw data by pushing 63% of the tee-to-green weight towards my weighted proximity numbers to replicate the track.
Tee-Te-Green TPC Properties (15%) - An additional 15% weight to my tee-to-green narrative is substantial, but there are two reasons I like this aggressive approach for the St. Jude Championship. For starters, it allows me to condense back down some of the totals that I overemphasized during my recalculated portion, but perhaps even more importantly, it narrows the data down to fit only similar TPC complexes.
Opportunities Gained From Prox + Chances To Make Putt (15%) - That is a glorified way of saying I am looking for all opportunities created and then hoping to find who will make the most birdies after combining make percentage with the sheer number of chances generated.
Strokes Gained Total Bermuda (12.5%) - That took on an entire encapsulation of Bermuda metrics - including putting on that specific surface and how someone performs out of Bermuda rough.
Weighted Par-Four (15%) - I am one of the few people in the space who views distinct hole ranges as something worth modeling. Yes, taking the information at face value is a problem if you run it as a solo statistic, but I always like to extract the data and compile as many variables into my model as I can for the week.
Ball-Striking (15%) - I took distance + good drive percentage to get a total driving number and then combined that driving metric at an equal dispersion amount with my GIR percentage to get ball-striking.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are seven players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Rory McIlroy ($11,000) - The only questions for me surrounding Rory McIlroy will be his ownership and ability to make putts on Bermuda. The grass-type factor doesn't worry me as much since Justin Thomas did win this tournament in 2020 while losing strokes with his flat stick, but as is always the case in DFS across all sports, ownership will rule the day when making informed/calculated decisions. If the projection stays around 18-20 percent, I don't have an issue placing him into your player pool, but I will note that my preferred option in this range early will be Scottie Scheffler. Consider McIlroy to be 'good chalk' early in the week, but let's keep an eye on where his total moves.
Scottie Scheffler ($10,800) - It is hard for me to overlook how all the metrics and totals are pushing Scottie Scheffler into this range where his upside is as high for victory as anyone in this field, but the recent form has left enough to be desired that gamers seem to be looking elsewhere on Monday afternoon. There is an 18/1 still available at William Hill books that caught my attention, and Scheffler brings an increased projection in weighted tee-to-green totals when mimicking the stats towards TPC Southwind, moving him from eighth to third, and his seventh place mark in weighted proximity is 55 spots better than his projected total in my model on a random track.
Xander Schauffele ($10,600) - The American is under early consideration because of his top-five mark overall + reasonable projection total, but the question I would ask is this: "Does Xander possess enough leverage and discount in price from Scheffler or McIlroy to warrant using him over the two?" To me, the answer is no. But let's see where things trend over the next few days. He is still someone I am on the fence about for the week.
Cameron Smith ($10,500) - The year 2022 has become the season of me fading Cameron Smith in most spots where I shouldn't be taking such a firm stance. The Aussie does rank first in my model for opportunities gained + percentage to make the putt, but these fairways are not as wide-open as he has gotten during some of his victories this season, which we see with him ranking 112th in total driving. I am not sure Smith would be able to hit many fairways on a good day, but it won't help matters that it is probably 50/50 on whether he has stopped drinking out of his Claret Jug yet. If trying to create extreme leverage, I prefer Schauffele or Cantlay.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) - Patrick Cantlay hasn't finished worse than 14th during his last six tournaments and does receive a notable boost on this specific for weighted proximity. My decision will likely come down to whether I want to find myself overweight to Schauffele or Cantlay but consider it a coin flip until more information enters the market.
Justin Thomas ($10,200) - Is Justin Thomas fully healthy yet? I am not sure, but that uncertainty is good enough for me to go in a different direction if we are looking at the American potentially being the highest-owned player on the slate. Sure, there is a chance he beats me since he does rank number one for upside, but I don't see a massive difference between Thomas, Schauffele or Cantlay, and I know I can get the other two at half the ownership.
Jon Rahm ($10,000) - I can't find an edge on ownership or rank, meaning Rahm will be on the sidelines of my builds. The Spaniard ranks 35 spots worse in my expected tee-to-green here versus a random course, not to mention that the Bermuda putting has been troubling in the past. It is worth noting that the former top-ranked golfer in the world is number one in my model for ball-striking, but there are too many red flags present if he is going to push 10% ownership.
As of Monday:
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800) - My model continues to miss something with Matthew Fitzpatrick. That realization is good enough for me to overlook what the data tells me since it has happened over and over again this year, and I do like the early ownership trending at less than 10 percent. If that total spikes, I am fine moving in a different direction, but the Englishman is currently presenting a unique potential for leverage with his two top-six finishes at the venue in three tries.
Tony Finau ($9,700) - I like Finau, but I will have to miss out if he is one of the five highest-owned golfers on the slate. In order to justify that percentage, he would need to be grading off the charts, which isn't the case in my model.
Will Zalatoris ($9,500) - Speaking of grading off the charts, Zalatoris comes into the week as the top-ranked golfer in my model - thanks to grading inside the top eight in not only all six statistical categories but also in form and course history. Not all chalk is bad, and it would take a shift of some kind for me to pivot away from the American, who might be in an excellent spot to pick up his first title.
Cameron Young ($9,300) - The total driving is fine, even though there are accuracy concerns, but the more significant issue comes down to his ball-striking mark - a total that places him 71st in the field.
Jordan Spieth ($9,100) - Spieth suffers that same negative trajectory that I just mentioned with Cameron Young for total driving because of the inaccuracy off the tee, but we see him make up for it in almost every other area. I believe there is a reason why he has two top-12 finishes at this course since the event transferred into a WGC, and the increase when it comes to Bermuda putting is a noteworthy one.
Viktor Hovland ($9,000) - The upside increase looks interesting, but the ownership amount is too high. If we are paying solely for the upside, there would have to be a better leverage situation.
As of Monday:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
To be honest, all the maybes in the section are strongly leaning towards being fades, so it likely will be a zone where Collin Morikawa ($8,700), Sungjae Im ($8,500), Shane Lowry ($8,300) and Joaquin Niemann ($8,100) become my main targets, and most of my player pool is built in other sections.
As of Monday:
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Aaron Wise ($7,700) - All the Bermuda and ball-striking totals you run will look strong for Wise, as he ranks ninth in my model overall. Sometimes we have these situations where the market is slow to move on a player because of the perceived lack of win equity, and I believe that is what is occurring with Wise, who has quietly demonstrated an uptick in high-end results over the past few months.
Corey Conners ($7,600) - Conners is a perfect stylistic fit for TPC Southwind, ranking inside the top-10 of this field for good drive % on difficult-to-hit fairways, GIR percentage, ball striking and strokes gained off the tee. His Bermuda putting improvement that my model sees in him is a massive boost to my projections since the ball-striking totals are already there, and I do want to note that if you for some reason have an issue playing the Canadian at between 17-20% ownership on DraftKings, there is an alternative route to consider if you bet him to come top-40 at odds of -115.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.
Mark Hubbard ($6,900) - Hubbard's proximity to mimic TPC Southwind places him 20th in this field, and he is one of the steady climbers in my reweighed tee-to-green category that I keep mentioning as being what I view as the single most important stat of the week. For reference sake, here are the 6k golfers that see the largest improvement from their baseline in that area:
Stewart Cink ($6,600), Rickie Fowler ($6,400), John Huh ($6,700), Lucas Glover ($6,300), C.T. Pan ($6,400), Marc Leishman ($6,900), Lee Hodges ($6,400), Tom Hoge ($6,800) and Russell Knox ($6,500)
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Scottie Scheffler ($10,800)
$9,000 - Will Zalatoris ($9,500)
$8,000 - Shane Lowry ($8,300)
$7,000 - Aaron Wise ($7,700)
$6,000 - Mark Hubbard ($6,900)
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