RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Scottish Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Scottish Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Renaissance Club
7,293 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Fescue
While the strategic alliance between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour has supplied a strengthened backbone to the non-LIV products, it also has provided a more challenging blueprint to maneuver through for various reasons. For starters, the tournament will be making its debut on the PGA Tour as a co-sanctioned event, which isn't necessarily the issue since the best chance for survival comes when both leagues work together, but as someone that lives and dies (no pun intended) by the stats weekly, it can put us in a precarious position when 75 players in the field have limited data to traverse through for the week. Mix that with the fact that we don't have long-term strokes gained data from the previous three appearances at the Renaissance track, and we start to get this jumbled-up picture of not only what to expect from half the field but also how to properly handicap the proceedings in general.
Designed by Tom Doak in 2008, Renaissance Club is a Par 71 that measures 7,293 yards. Tricky green complexes will come into play on most of these massively oversized greens - a quirk we see implemented by Doak quite frequently - and the Fescue texture to the surface generates a languid feel to the putts. All of that starts putting us in the direction to think scoring could be difficult since three-putts will come into play frequently for those that misjudge their approach shots, but we haven't necessarily seen that ring true over the first few iterations. Bernd Weisberger and Min Woo Lee won their titles at 18-under and 22-under, respectively, but the one outlier win from Aaron Rai in 2020 at 11-under tells the potential for danger more than anything I have mentioned so far. Rai's victory took place during Scottish coastal winds that wreaked havoc on the field, and while the weather isn't necessarily a category I love to place too much emphasis on weekly since it changes quickly, I do believe looking at how a player performs in more gusty conditions will be vital for a Links-style test on foreign land.
With all that being said, I don't want to overstate the track's difficulty. We know birdie chances can come in bunches from past showings. The four par-fives are gettable. The par threes are long, but the wide-open greens should remove some impending danger. And the par-fours provide a mixed bag of both length and scoreable chances - something we see when comparing the five par-fours over 464 yards to the drivable par-four fifth that is 338 yards. To me, golfers that can supply a solid tee-to-green account of themselves, especially with their irons and short games, will be at an advantage, and I would be looking for dependable play both in and around fairway and greenside bunkers because of the potential landmines looming at every turn.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Renaissance Club | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- SG: Total Moderate-To-Severe Wind (7.5%) - Wind is the one defense of the property, but even a calm day provides your typical coastal gusts.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) - These have historically been the best chances you will get daily to make birdies in bunches.
- Weighted Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (12.5%) - The birdie aspect of this matters more than the bogey portion, but there are challenging holes that can sneak up on the field, especially when wind gusts come in at the wrong angle.
- Fairway + Greenside Bunkers (15%) - The totality of the pot bunkers stretching throughout the venue can provide a slew of problems for the field. I looked more into the fairway bunkers than the greenside ones since all the putting surfaces are extremely large.
- Weighted Three-Putt + Slow Greens (15%) - These large Fescue green complexes are not as undulated as you might expect from a Scottish track designed by Doak, but the combination of size and the lack of speed can put players in a precarious position when it comes to three-putting.
- Weighted Ball-Striking (15%) - As you can tell, I am going relatively flat across the board when constructing my model, but the ball-striking incorporated some of the reweighted proximity numbers (which we will discuss more in a second) and a mixture of total driving - highlighted by a slight lean towards distance over all else. Unlike most in the industry this week, I do not believe that length is a prerequisite, but it does model well as the third factor in a category.
- Weighted Proximity (15%) - We have an inexact science on our hands without past data at the track, but I did manage to try and mimic the proximity totals to equal what I expected to see from an average player at the Renaissance Club. That left us with the strongest correlation on proximity over 200 yards, but we also got substantial returns when looking from 125-200.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
- Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) - Getting ourselves to look in a different direction than Scottie Scheffler when talking about safety is challenging. Scheffler has not only won four of his last 12 events but has also produced an additional six top-18 finishes in that timeframe.
- Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($10,600) - Of the big three, Thomas probably has the most extensive range of outcomes to discuss, but his statistical prowess for Reinnanace Club, mixed with his course history of back-to-back top-nine finishes, has the American grading as the top player in my model for upside.
- Favorite GPP Play: Jon Rahm ($11,000) - I don't think you can go wrong with any of the three up top. Rahm has started to turn his game back around by providing three top-12 finishes over his past four starts, and the first-place marks in windy conditions and total driving could offer him a boost after gaining with his short game in every top-12 finish since the Mexico Open
- Fade: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,100) - It might be shocking to see the hottest player in the world listed as a fade, but the price jump into the $10,000s is a much different situation than when we were grabbing him as an 8k selection. Yes, I know Fitzpatrick won during his last appearance, but we are just one tournament removed from the constant wondering if he could get the job done. At $10,100, I will take my chances in opposing him, mostly due to the fact that his ownership mark is trending towards being the highest on the board.
- Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($11,000)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - As was the case with the first few names in the $10,000 range, it is a solid list for us to consider in the $9,000s. I don't necessarily have a massive takeaway one way or another and will be letting ownership make some of these close calls for me, but Xander's form tops the field when i use a reweighted code to figure out recent results. Add that to the fact that he also ranks first in my recalculated putting metrics that took into account three-putt avoidance and strokes gained total on slow greens, and you start to get a picture of a golfer that should continue his fiery run.
- Most Upside: Collin Morikawa ($9,400) - Sam Burns ($9,200) and Cameron Smith ($9,100) both have rightful arguments to be mentioned for the upside section, but it feels like a matter of time before the two-time major champion thwarts himself back into the winner's circle. Morikawa's short game could see an enhancement when we consider how large these greens are at the club, meaning the usually shaky play out of the rough might become mitigated if he can putt balls from off the surface.
- Favorite GPP Play: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) - Ranking top-five in the field for weighted ball-striking and par-five scoring, can Hideki Matsuyama make enough putts to work his way up the leaderboard? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but I also don't mind the idea of grabbing whoever is the lowest owned between Will Zalatoris, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama. If you can fit multiple into a lineup, that works also, but there aren't a ton of natural fade candidates for us to eliminate in these opening two segments.
- Fade: None - Patrick Cantlay ($9,600) is my least favorite play
- Most Likely Winner: Collin Morikawa ($9,400)
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Joaquin Niemann ($8,600) - I wouldn't consider the track a true "Links-Style" set-up, but the ability to club down and create low ball-flight drives off the tee will be crucial. Niemann can do that better than most players in the world, and he provides one of the higher combinations of safety and floor of the group.
- Most Upside: I will be considering Sungjae Im ($8,700), Corey Conners ($8,300) and Max Homa ($8,000) for builds, but I like Niemann's skillset the best.
- Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($8,700) - Sungjae is the largest leverage advantage I have from the group if he stays sub-10 percent.
- Fade: Ryan Fox ($8,500), Billy Horschel ($8,200) & Cameron Young ($8,100)
- Most Likely Winner: Joaquin Niemann ($8,600)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-50 in both overall and upside + negative totals against their DraftKings price and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
I stretched the list out further in the $6,000s to include more options to consider. All the players below were inside the top-75 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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