RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Travelers Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Travelers Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC River Highlands
6,841 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa (With Bentgrass)
TPC River Highlands was initially built in 1928 by Robert Ross but was re-designed twice in the 1980s by Pete Dye and Bobby Weed. The Dye and TPC narratives are always an interesting one to handicap because of the rollover production they present from a statistical perspective, and we see that with the track ranking inside the top-10 in terms of predictability when running it against all other courses that will be used in action in 2022.
On the surface, the 6,841-yard measurement and smaller-than-average greens seem like they would tell a story of short game prowess and mid-iron play coming to the forefront of the discussion, and while some of that will be important when traversing through the data, it is the off the tee metrics that will take center stage in the increase they get from a regular stop. The standard course on the PGA Tour sees 15.2% of the scoring dispersion take place from the opening tee shot, but TPC River Highlands, despite the condensed yardage total on the scorecard, ramps up the expectation to the tune of 18.2% - a three percent increase over a random course. We, of course, do get that heightened mid-iron percentage that you might expect with a 7.1% increase in approach shots that will take place between 125-175 yards, but this isn't your typical short layout that diminishes off the tee prowess, and in reality, it forces the overall need for ball-striking up the pecking order when combining the information on hand.
And all of that is a strange answer to give for multiple reasons. For starters, driving accuracy is seven percentage points higher here than average. That alone starts to push us into this weird territory of what the numbers are trying to tell us, but it becomes even more confusing when we look into the fairway width being 3.3 yards wider than usual. Both of those factors pinpoint a venue that should diminish off-the-tee presence, but the only thing I can think of is that the wide-open nature, mixed with the nearly equal expectation when it comes to distance, can help some in the field take advantage of that strength. It is a weird way to look at the numbers because the reality of what I just said means distance then becomes a little more enhanced, which I do think it does, but we also see the steady-Eddie players get a chance to excel with their mid irons if they can get hot for the week. The best way I would explain the situation is that if you are long and accurate off the tee, you can find yourself with extremely short yardages into these greens, but even if you are distance-negative on the scale, you can take advantage of the course if the mid-iron statistics pop over the four rounds to go along with the ability to find fairways.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC River Highlands | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 279 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 68% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 68% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.49 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
I found it extremely challenging to build a model for TPC River Highlands. The rollover predictability has been pronounced at the track, but what the venue is asking of players and how it works out in a mathematical build doesn't assemble perfectly. Bombers of the ball can gain a three percent advantage when it comes to dispersion of scoring off the tee just as quickly as fairway finders, and it puts us in this spot where the course is demanding multiple facets at once, even if just one of the two skillsets will be sufficient. I decided to keep things simple by recalculating the metrics to only include similar sorts of tests, which means the basic information like total driving or iron proximity got ignored since the data never coagulated properly when running my initial model
- Weighted Tee To Green Short Courses (30%) - You will see this style of modeling from me repeatedly for the Travelers Championship. I got rid of every venue that stretched over a certain distance and then reran the data to the tune of 46% approach, 30% off the tee and 24% around the green. There are concerns with putting together the sheet in that fashion since it ignores some key proximity ranges, but I am not convinced that the plurality of the information is overly helpful.
- Weighted Bent + Poa (10%) - I took a relatively even split between tee to green numbers and putting on similar greens.
- Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye (15%), Strokes Gained Total TPC (10%), Strokes Gained Total Short Courses (10%) - We will clump the three together for this example, but I wanted to continue finding comparable venues. Dye and TPC tracks always have extensive carryover effects, and the short course answer should add to the model's makeup for a second time.
- Weighted Par-Four (10%) - There are two short par-fours, eight between 400-450 yards and an additional two that stretch from 450-500. I dove deeper into those examples and marginally added back in overall par-four scoring.
- Weighted Birdie or Better (15%) - I looked at birdie or better percentage at short courses to go along with Dye and TPC tracks to get a better idea of the players in the field that would like this setup more than others. To be honest, this is a basic model that is missing a few key components, but simple is better than convoluted when the data isn't telling a perfect picture. With TPC River Highlands grading inside the top-10 venues on tour in predictability, let's not try and fight the straightforward answers that are being provided.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
At this moment, ownership is lacking from multiple sites I pull data from weekly. We will do our best to work around that for the article today, but let's be cautious in how aggressive we get with some stances until more information enters the market.
I have a feeling that Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) is going to find himself as one of the more popular choices on the board, thanks to his immaculate course history of four top-15 finishes in a row at the venue. Cantlay ranks first in my model from an upside perspective - highlighted by him placing second in weighted tee to green - but it is first-place marks in weighted Bent + Poa, strokes gained total on Pete Dye and weighted birdie or better percentage to mimic TPC River Highlands that stands out most. My fingers are crossed that the 30-year-old can avoid an ownership total that places him over 20%, but my early lean is that Cantlay is the man to beat this week in Connecticut and will be the player I am most eager to fit into my DFS builds.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
We will let ownership push us in or out of options in the $9,000 range, but Brooks Koepka ($9,300), Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) and Harold Varner III ($9,000) are the initial three names that I am considering when it comes to value.
Koepka could find himself in a position where the public sentiment will be lower than it should because of his form, but two top-20 finishes at the venue over his past three attempts might create potential leverage for the American to get himself back on track at a limited popularity total. The 32-year-old ranks fifth in this field in weighted tee to green on short courses, and the additional top-five grades in weighted birdie or better, weighted par-four and strokes gained total on Pete Dye courses will only add to the potential for him to unlock his ceiling.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Early Leans: Webb Simpson ($8,500), Marc Leishman ($8,400), Jason Day ($8,100)
The time has finally arrived for Webb Simpson and Jason Day to make an article simultaneously! I'd be careful in how I take in the numbers for the American this week since the short-term data is being negatively affected by a few poor results, but back-to-back top-27 finishes before last week's U.S. Open failure is what I am eyeing as a reason for optimism. We know that if Simpson is regaining his form, these price tags will only last for so long, and it also feels like an excellent spot to consider the 80/1 number hanging at DraftKings as of Monday night.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list above is everyone ranked inside the top-60 for either upside or overall. We will work on eliminating some of those options as more ownership enters the market.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
It is one of those weeks where we will have to play the waiting game. It doesn't make for the most robust article, but listen to my Bettor Golf Podcast tomorrow, and I will try to break down these tiers in a more complete fashion when we have more information on hand!
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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