RADIO
Ah, stolen bases. It's a real love/hate relationship. They're fun, but they also seem to be dying out, which means fantasy baseball managers are hunting for them like Nicholas Cage hunting for his precious truffle pig. (Side note: "Pig" is such a gem. Forget whatever you think it's about and just watch it. It's so good).
Over the last few years, the number of stolen bases needed to hit the much-desired 80th percentile mark for stolen bases in 15-team leagues has dropped from 145 in 2018 to 121 in 2021. So now we need fewer stolen bases in order to hit our desired target, but there are fewer guys getting them.
What has resulted is players who can get us 20+ steals being aggressively pushed up draft boards. Do we have to chase steals early or are there some late-round picks we can target instead?
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Speed Inflation
As of this writing, 10 of the top 15 stolen base projected leaders are being drafted in the top 100 picks. Or, as our own data whiz Jon Anderson broke it down:
After those first three rounds, you see a real dead zone until round 12, and then it tapers off again. In this article, I'm going to give you some stolen base targets that I like who are going after picks 200 in recent drafts. That's the 17th round in 12-team and 14th round in 15-team leagues. While I will obviously be focusing on stolen bases, I'll give some brief information on the rest of the players' profiles because we want to make sure that we aren't tanking other categories in pursuit of steals. It will be a little bit of a quick-and-dirty write-up, but I want to make sure I give you as many options as possible.
ADP is created by using NFBC drafts from January 30th to February 20th and the projections mentioned are up-to-date as of February 20th.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 211
SB Projections: 9 (THE BAT), 12 (ATC), 14 (Steamer), 20 (ZiPS DC)
Nobody really knows what the expect from the gigantic rookie, but we do know that Cruz has tremendous athleticism for a 6'7" 210-pound athlete. He stole 19 bases across 68 minor league games last season and has had double-digit stolen bases in every one of his minor league seasons, so there is reason to feel confident in at least getting 10 stolen bases if Cruz were to play the full season at shortstop in Pittsburgh. However, the Pirates ranked 17th in stolen bases attempted per game, so they're fairly middle of the pack in terms of aggression on the basepaths.
Why I'm particularly fond of Cruz at this cost is because of his upside. He had a very brief cup of coffee in the majors last year, but in those two games, he showed his raw power by hitting a ball 118.2 mph, which was the hardest-hit ball of any Pirate in 2021. He registered groundball rates around 50% in the minors, so we shouldn't expect Cruz to come up and be a major home run threat, but he has the bat speed and thump to at least hit 15, even without really adjusting his swing. His plus speed also means that his batting average, which is at .310 for his entire minor league career, should remain relatively safe. If we knew for sure that he was going to open the season in the Pirates' lineup, I think he would be going much higher, since a 15/15 season with a .260 average is very much in the cards.
Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 226
SB Projections: 11 (THE BAT), 12 (ATC), 13 (Steamer), 14 (ZiPS DC)
I covered Harrison Bader in-depth in my recent contact rate gainers article, so you can read that to see why I like him at his cost this season. The Cardinals also attempted the 8th-most stolen bases per game in baseball last season, and Bader has the 20th-fastest sprint speed in baseball (29.5 ft/sec) and 34th-fastest home-to-first time (4.21 seconds), so if he is going to play, which I think he will, I would be willing to bet on the high end of his stolen base projections.
Josh Rojas, 2B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 229
SB Projections: 14 (THE BAT), 11 (ATC), 11 (Steamer), 17 (ZiPS DC)
For a few years, we've been talking about how Rojas, the former Astros' prospect, could be a sleeper if he was actually given playing time. Well, he got 550 plate appearances in Arizona last year and put up a .264/.341/.411 line with eleven home runs and nine stolen bases. Not overly exciting.
Rojas has solid plate discipline, with a 10.5% walk rate that helps to boost his OBP, which is important when you're talking about stolen base targets. After all, you know the old adage, "You can't steal first base." However, Arizona also kind of hates to steal second. The Diamondbacks were dead last in steal attempts per game last year, which is not great if we're looking to Rojas for stolen bases. Rojas also ranked 117th in home-to-first time at 4.33 seconds, but still in a solid range, tied with players like Jean Segura, Juan Soto, and George Springer. He also ranked 239th in sprint speed (27.6 ft/sec), tied with Willson Contreras, Nick Castellanos, and Brandon Lowe, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.
We don't want to put too much emphasis on sprint speed as it's only one component of a player's stolen base profile. Still, the lack of team aggressiveness mixed with Rojas' lack of top-end speed, makes me land closer to the ATC projection above. Pair that with a 4.8% barrel rate, 88.2 mph average exit velocity, and 27.8% fly-ball rate, and I don't see much growth for Rojas. He's likely to be a .250 hitter given his inflated .345 BABIP last year, so he'll be a .250 10/10 option with some minor upside for more. That doesn't really entice me and I'd much rather wait for some of the other guys on this list.
Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 257
SB Projections: 14 (THE BAT), 14 (ATC), 15 (Steamer), 15 (ZiPS DC)
Let's get the first part out of the way: trusting a Rockies player is incredibly frustrating. They seem to yo-yo players in and out of the lineup at will, and it's impossible to get a read on who they actually like. That being said, Tapia was in the lineup regularly aside from the month of August when he was on the IL with a sprained toe. When he returned, he played in 26 games over the last month of the season and hit almost exclusively out of the leadoff spot or the 5th spot in the lineup. He did struggle, hitting just .214 in September, but he had hit .283 in the first half of the season and .321 during the shortened 2020 to go along with .275 in 2019, so I think we can write off the September average dip as just a rough month.
As a team, the Rockies had the 14th-most stolen base attempts per game, and Tapia ranks 123rd in the league in sprint speed (28.3 ft/sec) tied with Cavan Biggio, Victor Robles, and Wil Myers, which is an okay but not great range to be in. However, his home-to-first time of 4.21 seconds ranks him 40th in the league, tied with Tommy Edman and ahead of Starling Marte and Tyler O'Neill so we know he has some short-area quickness.
Given his relatively stable playing time and elite bat-to-ball skills (13.1% strikeout rate), I think Tapia is a good bet to keep a .270 average and push for 20 steals, which makes him really good value at his current ADP and somebody that I wouldn't mind drafting closer to the pick 220 range.
Tommy Pham, OF, Free Agent
ADP: 258
SB Projections: 14 (THE BAT), 14 (ATC), 15 (Steamer), 15 (ZiPS DC)
I've been drafting a lot of Tommy Pham so far, and I can only assume it's because he has no team. Let's talk about stolen bases first because that's why you're here. Pham had 14 last season but has a history of good wheels, stealing 25 in both 2017 and 2019 and also swiping 15 in 2018. He stole six in just 31 games during the COVID-shortened season, so it's fair to say that Pham has had essentially a 15 stolen base floor over the last five years.
When Pham stole 25 bases in 2019, his sprint speed was 28.7 ft/sec and his home-to-first time was 4.38, which was good for 252nd in the league. In 2021, his sprint speed was 27.8 ft/sec and a home-to-first time of 4.54, so he does seem to be slowing down a step, which could also be the result of multiple soft tissue injuries over the years. However, he wasn't really a burner to begin with, so Pham has always been able to steal bases with good instincts and strong jumps; two things that don't just evaporate.
Another reason I like Pham is because of his ability to help you in other categories. Pham has tremendous plate discipline with a 13.9% walk rate last year and a 12.5% rate for his career to go along with a strikeout rate that hasn't been above 23% since 2018. He's also been a .265 career hitter, and I urge you to not let the .229 batting average from last year fool you. Pham recorded a career-high 10% barrel rate last year to go along with a 46.7% hard-hit rate. The hits just didn't fall for him. He also upped his flyball rate and dropped his groundball rate by 14% from 2020 and by 5% from 2019. That's part of the reason he hit 15 home runs despite playing in a good pitcher's park.
While many people are drafting Robbie Grossman around pick 180 for the hope that he puts up a 15/15 season, I think you are just as likely to get 15/15 from Pham but with a higher batting average going way later. You're taking a risk drafting him before he has a set team, but he's been a full-time player since 2017 so I expect him to sign somewhere he is going to start.
Andres Gimenez, 2B/SS, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 266
SB Projections: 15 (THE BAT), 18 (ATC), 16 (Steamer), 21 (ZiPS DC)
Let's be honest, writing Guardians was super weird there. Anyway, onto the actual analysis, when Giménez was traded from the Mets, there was a lot of excitement about him getting a full-time job, and possibly a lead-off spot, in Cleveland. While he had struggled to break .280 at the higher levels of the minors, he hit .263 win his 49 games with the Mets in 2020, and was coming off of a 28 stolen base year in 2019, which backed up his 38 stolen base season in 2018. Most thought he could be a tremendous source of cheap steals early on, but what we got was a .179/.226/.308 slash line with two home runs and four stolen bases before he was demoted to Triple-A.
He did a little bit better there, hitting .287 with ten home runs and eight stolen bases across 52 games before heading back to the majors and hitting .245/.320/.382 with three home runs and seven stolen bases in 39 games to close out the year. All of which is important to consider when you remember that he played all of last season at just 22-years-old. Most players his age were in Double-A but Gimenez was bouncing between the two highest levels in the game. The adjustments he made mid-season are really just the natural adjustments of any young player. He returned to the majors swinging more often, striking out less, and hitting the ball on the ground more.
That last part is important because Giménez only hits the ball 90 mph in the air, which is 9th-percentile in all of baseball. If he hits it on the ground more, he can use his plus wheels to beat out more hits. Gimenez ranks 20th in baseball in sprint speed (29 ft/sec) and 30th in home-to-first time, tied with his teammate Amed Rosario and just behind Nicky Lopez, who, I should add, is being drafted ahead of Giménez.
With Giménez just turning 23, I think it's safe to expect continued growth from him as a player. He has never been somebody with a lot of patience, so his OBP isn't going to be great, and I struggle to see how he hits above .250 in 2022 unless he's made major changes. Still, He has the wheels to swipe 20 bases if Cleveland keeps giving him opportunities, which I think they will, given their projected lineup and his inclusion in the Francisco Lindor trade. With only 16 players in all of baseball projected by ATC to steal 20 bases, Giménez's upside to be in that group makes him a great late-round option for steals.
Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 267
SB Projections: 18 (THE BAT), 17 (ATC), 16 (Steamer), 19 (ZiPS DC)
Unlike his teammate Tapia, I can't really buy into Hampson. For starters, I am less confident in his playing time. As of this writing, Hampson is slated to start at shortstop for Colorado and hit 9th, but Colorado has never seemed to like playing Hampson regularly so I wouldn't rule out the team signing somebody like Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison, or Freddy Galvis to work in at short. They also have Alan Trejo, a 25-year-old prospect who hit .278 with 17 home runs in 90 games in Triple-A in 2021 while starting 75 of those games at shortstop.
Hampson certainly has speed, ranking 24th in home-to-first and 11th in sprint speed (29.9 ft/sec), but he is also not a good hitter. He had just a 5% barrel rate last year and a gross 87 mph average exit velocity. Plus, he continues to hit the ball in the air (37.5%) as much as on the ground (39.5%), which would seem to make sense in Coors but it doesn't allow for Hampson's speed to steal him base hits and plays too much into power that he simply doesn't have. As a result, Hampson will continue to be a .240-.250 hitter who collects around 10 home runs, and I'm not sure the Rockies will continue to keep him in the lineup just for his speed.
Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS, Free Agent
ADP: 278
SB Projections: 18 (THE BAT), 16 (ATC), 16 (Steamer), 19 (ZiPS DC)
Villar's value is going to depend relatively heavily on where he signs. He's still just 30-years-old and has always been a steady producer, especially when it comes to steals, having only notched below 14 steals once and that was in 2015 when he only played 53 games. While he's not as fast as he was during his peak years, he has a 4.38 home-to-first time, tied with Ramon Laureano, Robbie Grossman, and Ian Happ, and also a 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed, which is the same as Jean Segura and Brian Goodwin. The numbers aren't eye-popping, but they can certainly help get 20+ stolen bases in the right environment considering Villar's instincts as a runner.
Last year, Villar played 142 games in a part-time role with the Mets, hitting 18 home runs and stealing 14 bases, which is actually a solid total considering the Mets were 21st in the league in stolen base attempts per league. It's important that much of the chatter in years past about Villar being over-rated was centered around years where he was going inside the top-80 picks. He remains a player who, if he gets regular at-bats, should hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases as a baseline, while also hitting around .250. There is certainly upside for him to swipe 20-25 bases if he lands somewhere as a starter (um, Colorado?), and he would definitely fly up draft boards if he seemed locked into 500 plate appearances. Which is why I think he's a solid gamble this late in drafts.
Rafael Ortega, OF, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 319
SB Projections: 10 (THE BAT), 15 (ATC), 16 (Steamer), 13 (ZiPS DC)
Ortega may strike you as a journeyman and, in part, that's true. He's 30-years-old and had only 441 total major league plate appearances before the 2021 season. However, he also has a career .292 minor league batting average with 259 steals across 13 seasons. That's just under 20 steals a season (Math!). As a 30-year-old, Ortega had a 27.5 ft/sec sprint speed (tied with Paul DeJon and ahead of Kyle Tucker and JaCoby Jones) and a 4.43 home-to-first time that was equal to Nick Gordon and Shed Long (and Kyle Schwarber). So Ortega is not a burner, but he is a smart baserunner and plays for a team that was 7th in baseball last year in stolen base attempts per game, which is why he was able to swipe 12 in 103 games.
I can't see Ortega putting up more than 15 steals, but a 15/15 season is within the realm of possibility for a guy that has a .255 career major league average. That's essentially the same thing you're getting from Robbie Grossman, who is projected by ATC to hit 17 home runs and have 16 steals with a ..240 average, but Grossman is also being picked 140 picks earlier. Of course, the other reason for this is that there is a chance the Cubs bring in other outfielders since their signing of Marcus Stroman seems to indicate they are not going full-on rebuild. That makes Ortega's price fair where it is now, but I honestly think Clint Frazier or even Jason Heyward could lose their spot in the Cubs' lineup before Ortega does.
Manuel Margot, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 336
SB Projections: 15 (THE BAT), 14 (ATC), 16 (Steamer), 16 (ZiPS DC)
Margot is another player whose value will depend entirely on playing time. However, for Margot, it's not about where he signs, since he's under contract with the Rays, but more about what happens to the other outfielders around him. There have been rumors that both Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier could be on the trading block. If one, or both, of those guys gets moved, it could conceivably open up even more at-bats for Margot. Now, I know the Rays also have Vidal Brujan and Josh Lowe waiting in the wings, but Margot is a premium defender in center field, so if Kiermaier is the one traded, I would anticipate that the Rays would give Margot the vast majority of playing time in center field and then use the other two outfield spots to try to find at-bats for their dynamic rookies, in particular Vidal Brujan (ADP: 329) who is certainly a stolen base dart throw in his own right.
Margot himself remains quick, ranking 84th in sprint speed, tied with Lewis Brinson, Whit Merrifield, and Marcus Semien, while also ranking 68th in home-to-first time, tied just ahead of Bryan Reynolds and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Margot stole 13 bases in just 464 plate appearances in 2021, so if you were to give him 500+ plate appearances after any trades, it would seem likely that he could get to 15+. The Rays were also 5th in baseball in stolen base attempts per game last year, so any narrative about the Rays being too analytical to run should be thrown out the window. Considering I see Margot gaining more playing time after trades, I have him projected for 16 steals, 12 home runs, and a .256 average, which all seems doable with 500 plate appearances and would put Margot around Ramon Laureano and Jo Adell in terms of projected output, despite both of them going about 100 picks before Margot.
Miguel Rojas, SS, Miami Marlins
ADP: 369
SB Projections: 11 (THE BAT), 12 (ATC), 12 (Steamer), 12 (ZiPS DC)
I know 12 stolen bases isn't really a lot, but I wanted to write up Rojas really quickly because I don't think he gets enough respect. He's a career .265 hitter whose plus defense at shortstop will likely keep him in the lineup, and he doesn't strike out, with a career 12.7 K%. He's not a particularly fast runner, with a 4.56 home-to-first time that's tied with Yoshi Tsutsugo and Carter Kieboom and a 376th ranked sprint speed that's tied with Chad Pinder, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Tony Kemp, surprisingly. However, Rojas has always notched a handful of steals, swiping nine in 2019 and 13 last year, while also registering five stolen bases in 40 games during the shortened 2020. The Marlins had the third-most stolen base attempts per game in baseball last year, so Rojas should likely continue to get his chances to swipe 10+ bases for fantasy teams.
Considering that he is a good bet for around 550 plate appearances and won't hurt your batting average, I think Rojas makes for a strong late-round MIF option if you want some steals but aren't too far behind in the category.
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 367
SB Projections: 13 (THE BAT), 12 (ATC), 14 (Steamer), 17 (ZiPS DC)
We'll end the bigger write-ups with Lorenzo Cain because the 35-year-old had a quietly productive campaign last year, finishing with a .257 average, eight home runs, and 13 stolen bases in just 78 games. Cain still had the 76th-best Sprint Speed, tied with Trevor Story and Cesar Hernandez, and a home-to-first time that was the same as Dylan Moore and Robbie Grossman. Cain has never put up big power numbers and has certainly lost a step, but he also hit .279/.333/.435 with five home runs and nine steals across 47 games in the second half of 2021. If you were to triple that (which we know is not how projections work) Cain would have 15 home runs and 27 steals in 462 plate appearances, which is actually around what Cain is projected for this season as the Brewers' starting center fielder. Even if we factor in his likely injuries, I'm comfortable anticipating him reaching the high-end of his stolen base projections, and think Cain could be a really sneaky source of steals late in drafts.
Post-400 ADP Fliers
Victor Robles, OF Washington Nationals (ADP: 420)
SB Projections: 13 (THE BAT), 12 (ATC), 14 (Steamer), 17 (ZiPS DC)
It's hard to get overly excited about a guy with a 3.6% career barrel rate and .237 career major league average. In fact, when you look back at Robles' minor league numbers before his breakout 2019 season in Washington, he's always been a relatively light-hitting speed asset. Yes, his batting averages in the minors always seemed to hover around .300, but he didn't drive the ball particularly well, and it's hard to see him being more than a .240 hitter with 10 home runs at the big league level. Still, he's just 25-years-old and Washington should be bad this year, which means he could push for 500 plate appearances. If there is any progress with his bat, he should be on base enough to steal 12-14 bases, which isn't bad this late in the draft.
Tyler Wade, 2B/SS/3B/OF Los Angeles Angels (ADP: 430)
SB Projections: 15 (THE BAT), 21 (ATC), 17 (Steamer), 18 (ZiPS DC)
We all love speed and multi-position eligibility, so Tyler Wade is our cat-nip this season. However, are we sure he should be giving ourselves over like this? Yes, Wade hit .268 last year but that just makes him a .212 career hitter. Wade also seemed to make no real noticeable changes to his approach last year, swinging at the same rate, swinging and missing at similar rates, and notching a non-existent barrel rate. Yes, he hit the ball on the ground more and pulled it less, both things that are good for a fast player, but his .194 xBA and .378 BABIP seem to suggest that Wade's batting average from last year is not close to real. When you also, considering that the Angels are clearly trying to compete now while Mike Trout is still healthy, it's also not impossible that Wade loses the starting shortstop gig he is currently penciled into. Wade is definitely fast (43rd in sprint speed and 14th in home-to-first time), but he may just be a utility bat who fails to get 300 plate appearances.
Bradley Zimmer, OF Cleveland Guardians (ADP: 440)
SB Projections: 11 (THE BAT), 14 (ATC), 10 (Steamer), 14 (ZiPS DC)
We'll end with a fantasy darling. Zimmer has been a hot topic in the fantasy community this year and only partially because Justin Mason seems to love him and Justin Mason loved Cedric Mullins before it was cool last year. In truth, Zimmer has a few of the same traits. He had a 9.4% barrel rate last year, 42.5% HardHit rate, 36th-ranked home-to-first speed, 22nd-ranked sprint speed, at a seemingly locked-in position in the starting lineup. The one glaring concern for Zimmer is that he had a 35.1% strikeout rate last year, so if he's not going to get on base, he can't steal bases for us.
There is some minor cause for optimism since Zimmer's 61 game sample from the second half of the season was better than his 37 game sample from the first half. He raised his contact rate by 6% and his swing rate by almost 7%, so even though he swung and missed more, his more aggressive approach allowed him to make more contact overall and led to slightly fewer strikeouts. He also lowered his launch angle and pulled the ball less, using the middle of the field which led to a higher batting average and slugging percentage. He also hit eight second-half home runs, as opposed to zero in the first half, thanks in part to Zimmer's 76th-percentile exit velocity on balls in the air and 92nd-percentile rate of balls hit in the air over 100 mph. He has true 20/20 upside if he could get his strikeout rate in check, but if he had shown signs of that already, there's not a shot you'd be getting him this late.
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