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Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (83-41-8), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Head-To-Head Selection
Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman -195
Reasons I Liked the Play:
I think one of the misunderstood concepts in sports betting is the term "value." When I say that I don't have Peter Uihlein winning this matchup as often as Brian Harman, it raises some eyebrows as to why am I betting on a golfer who won't win as frequently as his opponent. However, at the end of the day, everything has a price worth betting if we set a line high or low enough. If you wanted to sit there and flip coins 1,000,000 times and you would give me $1.10 every time it comes heads and I give you $1.00 every time it comes tails, I am going to use my long-term edge for the full duration of flips, even if it has come tails 20 straight times. That is the best way to describe finding value in sports. I have Uihlein properly priced at +130, giving us an edge of seven percent in terms of implied win probability.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
It is difficult for me to find many statistical reasons to get behind Peter Uihlein. The American has blow-up potential, isn't a good driver of the ball and has been shaky as of late. The same sentiments can be said about Brian Harman when push comes to shove, but his upside is clearly more pronounced than that of Uihlein. Consider this to be a number grab.
0.50 Units to Win 0.88
Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley -120
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Not as big of a disparity in this matchup as the first one, but we are back in a more typical situation where Russell Henley is the wrong man favorite. Doc Redman's missed cut at this venue last year mixed with his failed venture last weekend at Muirfield Village has stunted his outlook for some, but it's a good spot for us to use his slight mispricing to extract value out of a head-to-head wager. Henley's price across the board is a little overvalued to me, and while I am not necessarily discounting his chances to find success, I do believe his projections have been placed in the wrong threshold of players. I have Redman accurately priced at right around -120, and it is enough to take our four percent edge and run with it.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Henley isn't a natural fade from a statistical perspective. His game fits decently for how we should expect TPC Twin Cities to play, and his recent form has been impressive with four top-32 showings in his previous five events. All of that short-term success is outweighing what my model deems to be correct over a longer period of time, but it is worth noting that I tend to be late to the party when discussing changes to the norm in these situations.
0.70 Units to Win 0.70
Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk -120
Reasons I Liked the Play:
It feels as if Chris Kirk has become someone we are looking to fade in this article weekly. The story of him overcoming his addiction is a reason to get behind the American, but feel-good narratives don't work in the gambling world. That anecdote has been told numerous times in recent weeks, and I do think it has caused Kirk to draw more interest than he typically would if we didn't have a tale to point towards.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
I hope I am wrong, but I don't like or trust Ryan Armour in Minnesota. My model has the incorrect man being favorite by about 25 points, but it doesn't mean I entirely trust Armour to hold up his end of the bargain. There does seem to be a decent chance that we see this matchup go MC/MC, which will leave us sweating a Friday finish.
0.70 Units to Win 0.70
Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)
Luke List (+200) - 0.37 Units to Win 0.74
It has been nice to see Luke List show some signs of life after a troublesome past year on tour. The big-hitting American has recorded two-straight top-21 results, including an impressive share of 10th last weekend at Muirfield Village.
Doc Redman (+250) - 0.30 to Win 0.75
For some reason, Doc Redman's price has continued to slide throughout all markets since Monday. I have him as the sixth-rated player on my model, and the 22-year-old has provided three top-21 results in his previous four events. His missed cut at the Memorial should be thrown out the window because of the tough course conditions and not having to play four grueling rounds might work as a benefit for him this week.
First-Round Leader
Dustin Johnson 25/1 - 0.10 to Win 2.20
Doc Redman 50/1 - 0.04 to Win 2.00
Jhonattan Vegas 66/1 - 0.03 to Win 1.98
Ryan Brehm 200/1 - 0.03 to Win 6.00
I don't do much dabbling in the first-round leader market but have been asked to give some recommendations. I'd approach these plays with extreme caution, which explains the limited win totals given.
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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-6-2)
+4.58 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth | .90 Units to Win 0.62 | T14 (-16) | T68 (-4) | Win | 0.62 |
| Travelers Championship | Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel | 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (-2) | MC (-2) | Push | 0 |
| Rocket Mortgage | Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk | 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 | T12 (-14) | T21 (-13) | Win | 1.17 |
| Workday | Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+14) | T39 (-4) | Loss | -1.2 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
15-14-0 (+2.93 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Genesis Invitational | Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| WGC Mexico | Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Honda Classic | Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Arnold Palmer | Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Arnold Palmer | Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Arnold Palmer | Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Charles Schwab | Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
| RBC Heritage | Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.75 Units to win 0.65 | MC (+6) | MC (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Memorial | Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T13 (+1) | Loss | -1 |
| Memorial | Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter | 1.05 Units to win 1.00 | T54 (+9( | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Memorial | Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners | 0.88 Units to win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -0.88 |
| Memorial | Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler | 1.10 Units to win 1.00 | T38 (+5) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -1.1 |
2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Dustin Johnson | Travelers Championship | 30 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Abraham Ancer | RBC Heritage | 125 | 2 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Adam Hadwin | Rocket Mortgage | 70 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | RBC Heritage | 200 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Maverick McNealy | Rocket Mortgage | 100 | 8 |
| Tony Finau | Memorial | 66 | 8 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
Win Big With RotoBaller
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