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PGA Betting Advice - Corales Puntacana

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-38-8), netting over 43 units of profit and slightly over a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I believe name recognition for Charles Howell III has provided him a little more credit than he deserves for the week. The 41-year-old ranks outside the top-100 with his irons over his previous 24 rounds and fails to crack the top-50 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

While I do like Adam Long and the general safety he provides, Howell isn't a natural head-to-head target because of his high percentage of made cuts. That doesn't mean we can't pinpoint an edge on a battle that will most likely go four days, but there is always more of a risk when things can go wrong on the weekend. I'd have made Long a -120 favorite and believe we are gaining around a 4.5 percent edge in terms of implied win probability.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It has been all-or-nothing for Sam Ryder since the beginning of 2020, as the 233rd-ranked player in the world has missed 10 of 18 cuts to go along with five top-30 finishes.  That level of volatility typically makes for a good golfer to target in the head-to-head spectrum, and Ryder's failed venture at the venue in 2018 adds to my optimism that we may see him miss out on another weekend.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Frankly, Ryder is the better statistical fit for Corales Puntacana. Three missed cuts in a row versus Rob Oppenheim's three consecutive top-36 results can only go so far, and there is a chance that we see Ryder turn it on in a big way to get himself out of his slump. For that reason, I am not entirely opposed to playing the American in GPP contests on DraftKings, but I do believe we are off by about 25 points from a head-to-head perspective.

0.70 Units to Win 0.77

 

Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Statistically, Sam Burns grades out as my most likely winner this weekend at Corales Golf Club. The 24-year-old has been trending towards his first PGA Tour victory, and the overall level of erraticness from Corey Conners can't be understated. Conners is not only 50/50 in made cuts at the venue in his two tries but is also 50/50 over his last six events on tour. I think there is a chance that we sneak a missed cut out of Conners, but more likely, I think Burns' upside can bypass that of what we get out of the Canadian.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We could have a dogfight on our hands for four days. It doesn't take away from the fact that I want to find a way to identify some exposure to Burns after not selecting him in the outright market, nor does it ignore the nearly 4.5 percent edge that we have on the play. Still, though, Conners is always just a hot putter away from having a chance to compete for the title, and his overall makeup isn't that of someone that we are clamoring to fade.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-11-3)

2.02 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

21-22-0 (+2.57 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45

 

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

 

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

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2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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