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Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-40-8), netting nearly 44 units of profit and almost a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Free Head-To-Head Selection
Matthew Wolff -110 over Tommy Fleetwood
Reasons I Liked the Play:
I am committing a couple of faux pas here with my Matthew Wolff selection over Tommy Fleetwood. For starters, ew... I don't like recommending Wolff in any situation, but more importantly, we are going down the dreaded path of choosing a young player who has shown some issues with his short game in the past. These green complexes are complicated and take some getting used to before mastering the property, but it is hard for me to ignore Fleetwood, who hasn't shown himself to be the same player as years past. The Englishman has lost strokes with his irons in his last six tournaments, and he is fresh off of a 59th-place finish at the CJ Cup that resulted in him losing 6.9 shots off the tee.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
All of my betting articles this week are monotonous with my stance. Not only have we been given a more efficient board worth of matchups, but it isn't always easy to find consistent situations across the board. I've seen wild variations in pricing, and it is one of the reasons I have been recommending fading Tiger Woods if the math doesn't make sense at one of your sites. That doesn't necessarily help us here on our Wolff over Fleetwood play, but these markets are generally more systematic than a typical week. With the American making his second appearance at Augusta (first as a pro), it does hurt this wager somewhat, but I still have this properly priced at -135.
*** For the sake of transparency, this would technically have been my premium wager if one were listed for the week. Not every book has the same matchups/prices, and it is difficult to condense a scattered market into a concrete option that all have at their disposal. If you are going to make just one wager, this would be the one I would advise.
1.10 Units to Win 1.00
Francesco Molinari +133 over Shane Lowry
Reasons I Liked the Play:
We get one of two options here of how we want to oppose Shane Lowry. The steadier path for success would be to lay the small vig on Jason Kokrak over the Irishman, but I will get a little greedy and trust my numbers behind Francesco Molinari. I realize the Italian appeared to have become broken for almost a year after faltering down the stretch during last year's Masters, but a 15th-place showing at the Houston Open was enough for me to feel optimistic about his chances to put his demons behind him this year. Molinari has posted three straight top-33 results at Augusta, which is a vast advantage from what we have seen with Lowry making the cut once in four tries.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
In fairness, Molinari is technically better suited as an outright or top-20 wager because of his volatility. I don't usually take on this level of missed cut potential in my wagers, but it is hard to bypass my math that has the Italian as a small favorite. That edge is good enough for me to dabble for 0.75 units, but I wouldn't blame anyone if they decided to oppose Lowry with Kokrak instead.
0.75 Units to Win 1.00
Sebastian Munoz -102 over Billy Horschel
Reasons I Liked the Play:
We have gotten some built-in edges because of experience here at Augusta. Bookmakers have shaded some of their pricing towards the more seasoned veteran in these particular matchups, and while I do agree with the concept that Sebastian Munoz could fair better at the property in the future, it doesn't mean we still can't get a robust result out of him. In my opinion, Munoz is a threat to land inside the top-20, and I believe that will be good enough to best Billy Horschel in a head-to-head battle. My math has Munoz closer to -122.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
From a young player in Matthew Wolff to a true first-timer in Sebastian Munoz, we shouldn't be expecting all sunshine and roses behind some of these head-to-head matchups. Munoz has only made one of four cuts during his short major championship career, and he has yet to crack the top-50. I believe a lot of that should be ignored since we are getting a version of him that has made his last nine cuts on tour, but you never know how a younger player will react to the pressure.
1.02 Units to Win 1.00
Free Top-20
Charl Schwartzel 5/1 (0.20 Units to Win 1.00)
J.T. Poston 6.5 (0.16 Units to Win 1.04)
Sebastian Munoz 4/1 (0.25 Units to Win 1.00)
Francesco Molinari 3/1 (0.33 Units to Win 0.99)
Top Debutant
J.T. Poston 35/1 (0.08 Units to Win 2.80)
Abraham Ancer (14/1 (0.20 Units to Win 2.80)
Sebastian Munoz 17/1 (0.17 Units to Win 2.89)
It is a strong debutant class that features Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im, but it is tough to pinpoint much value at the top of the board. Morikawa at 4/1 is vastly overpriced for my liking, and I can't quite bite into any of the other sub-10/1 players for numerous reasons. We are probably going to need an outlier top-10 performance if we want to have a shot at this wager having a chance, and there are only three golfers that mathematically are grading out as value at their going rate. Poston is more of a shot in the dark, but I do have Ancer and Munoz targeted as top-five options in this market that you can find at deeper odds.
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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-13-3)
2.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth | .90 Units to Win 0.62 | T14 (-16) | T68 (-4) | Win | 0.62 |
| Travelers Championship | Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel | 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (-2) | MC (-2) | Push | 0 |
| Rocket Mortgage | Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk | 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 | T12 (-14) | T21 (-13) | Win | 1.17 |
| Workday | Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+14) | T39 (-4) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 | MC (+1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka | 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -1.15 |
| 3M Open | Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab | 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 | T41 (-9) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.15 |
| PGA Championship | Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed | 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 | T13 (-7) | T13 (-7) | Push | 0 |
| Wyndham Championship | Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T9 (-16) | T59 (-5) | WIn | 1 |
| Northern Trust | Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 | T58 (-6) | T44 (-8) | Loss | -1.35 |
| Safeway Open | Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 | T14 (-15) | T29 (-13) | Win | 1.32 |
| U.S. Open | Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth | 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 | T23 (+10) | MC (+14) | Win | 1.17 |
| Corales Puntacana | Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T41 (-6) | T21 (-9) | Win | -1.2 |
| Sanderson Farms | Brian Harman +110 over Byeong Hun An | 1.75 Units to Win 1.93 | T37 (-6) | MC (+4) | Win | 1.93 |
| Shriners Open | Cameron Smith -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T24 (-15) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Bermuda Championship | Justin Suh -110 over Danny Willet | 1.35 Units to Win 1.23 | MC (+2) | T55 (+1) | Loss | -1.35 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
26-23-0 (+5.49 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Genesis Invitational | Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| WGC Mexico | Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Honda Classic | Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Arnold Palmer | Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Arnold Palmer | Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Arnold Palmer | Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Charles Schwab | Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
| RBC Heritage | Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 | MC (+6) | MC (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Memorial | Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T13 (+1) | Loss | -1 |
| Memorial | Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T54 (+9( | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Memorial | Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners | 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -0.88 |
| Memorial | Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (+5) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -1.1 |
| 3M Open | Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman | 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 | T62 (-3) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.5 |
| 3M Open | Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -0.7 |
| 3M Open | Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (E) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston | 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 | T9 (-16) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas | 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk | 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | T51 (-6) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson | 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (+2) | T3 (-18) | Loss | -0.65 |
| Northern Trust | Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie | 0.80 Units to win 0.70 | T8 (-15) | T49 (-7) | Win | 0.7 |
| Northern Trust | Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley | 0.77 Units to win 0.70 | MC (+8) | T8 (-15) | Loss | -0.77 |
| Northern Trust | Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson | 0.74 Units to win 0.70 | MC (+3) | T6 (-16) | Loss | -0.74 |
| Tour Championship | Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na | 0.80 Units to win 0.70 | T18 (-5) | T27 (+1) | Win | 0.7 |
| Tour Championship | Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl | 0.85 Units to win 1.20 | T24 (E) | 30 (+4) | Win | 1.2 |
| Tour Championship | Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson | 0.65 Units to win 1.11 | T12 (-9) | 1 (-21) | Loss | -0.65 |
| Tour Championship | Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson | 0.45 Units to win 1.22 | T2 (-18) | 1 (-21) | Loss | -0.45 |
| U.S. Open | Patrick Cantlay -110 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.10 Units to win 1.00 | T43 (+15) | MC | Win | 1 |
| Corales Puntacana | Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners | 0.7 Units to win 0.70 | T28 (-8) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Corales Puntacana | Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder | 0.70 Units to win 0.77 | T33 (-7) | T52 (-5) | Win | 0.77 |
| Corales Puntacana | Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III | 0.70 Units to win 0.70 | 5 (-14) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Sanderson Farms | Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.25 Units to win 1.14 | MC (+2) | T12 (-13) | Loss | -1.25 |
| Bermuda Championship | Will Zalatoris -110 over Brendon Todd | 1.10 Units to win 1.00 | T16 (-8) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Dustin Johnson | Travelers Championship | 30 | 1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | U.S. Open | 33 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Abraham Ancer | RBC Heritage | 125 | 2 |
| Billy Horschel | Wyndham Championship | 33 | 2 |
| Justin Thomas | Tour Championship | 6 | 2 |
| Justin Thomas | ZOZO Championship | 12 | 2 |
| Max Homa | 3M Open | 80 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | BMW Championship | 40 | 3 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Adam Hadwin | Rocket Mortgage | 70 | 4 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Tony Finau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Jason Day | PGA Championship | 66 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | RBC Heritage | 200 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Xander Schauffele | WGC-St.Jude | 22 | 6 |
| Jon Rahm | Northern Trust | 16 | 6 |
| Charley Hoffman | Sanderson Farms | 66 | 6 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | Sanderson Farms | 80 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Bubba Watson | CJ Cup | 100 | 7 |
| Sam Burns | Houston Open | 110 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Maverick McNealy | Rocket Mortgage | 100 | 8 |
| Tony Finau | Memorial | 66 | 8 |
| Webb Simpson | U.S. Open | 50 | 8 |
| Luke List | Corales Puntacana | 66 | 8 |
| Ryan Armour | Bermuda Championship | 150 | 8 |
| Patrick Reed | Wyndham Championship | 16 | 9 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
| Xander Schauffele | PGA Championship | 35 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI
2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI
2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
Win Big With RotoBaller
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