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PGA DFS Vegas Report - The Masters

There will be some changes this week for how I typically layout my Vegas Report. Major championships are incredibly challenging to recommend from a handicapping perspective because cards are built throughout the entire year, which leaves us in a precarious position on how to handicap the event from a suggestion standpoint.

Releasing old plays won't help anyone since numbers have shifted throughout the year, although it is one of the many reasons why I always try to have everyone check back in on my betting spreadsheet to find new wagers as they emerge. These selections have been tweeted about or mentioned leading up to the week, but it obviously won't do a new reader any good to stumble upon a Bryson DeChambeau bet at 28/1 and not be able to match it. I will do my best to traverse through the week by pointing out what I do have locked in for the Masters, but this article will take a different form than usual.

Please note that this report is typically under the "premium" section here at RotoBaller. During that time, my head-to-head recommendations have gone an impressive (76-40-8), netting nearly 44 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

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Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Masters - PGA DFS Overview

Augusta National

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

Ah, yes. Magnolia Lane, Amen Corner, the green jacket and Augusta National - 'a tradition unlike any other.' But that tradition will get tested in 2020 after a stoppage earlier in the season resulted in the event being pushed back from April to the middle of November. The million-dollar question now becomes: Are there any differences that should be expected with the colder weather? And does the time of the year modify anything about the layout as a whole?

It is difficult to provide an answer without personal bias and interpretation of the situation, but I do believe distance of the tee will become even more pronounced for the week. Fairways are typically broad and feature non-existent rough, and that combination becomes amplified when you consider that par-five scoring is where golfers can do the majority of their damage.

Massive undulations in the greens have been known to wreak havoc for those who are not accustomed to the property, and it is one of the reasons why a first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Short games are going to be tested both on and around the putting surface, and being able to avoid three-putts will be just as important as being able to get your ball up-and-down from an awkward lie. The Masters is known to test you from tee-to-green, and the player that brings their best A-game for the week should be the one that walks out of Augusta as the final major winner of 2020.


Key Stats

  • Driving Distance 20%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
  • Three-Putt Percentage 17.5%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 15%
  • Strokes Gained off the Tee 15%
  • Par-Four Average + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%

 

What Wagers Do We Have Heading Into The Week?

  • Jon Rahm (11/1)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (28/1)
  • Patrick Cantlay (50/1)
  • Webb Simpson (60/1)
  • Jason Day (60/1)

Outside of the Jon Rahm 11/1 suggestion, everything listed here is long gone. My math has made the Spaniard the favorite to win the event, and I have proper value being 8/1 on the 25-year-old. Those looking to take someone near the top of the board and hoping to have a ticket that has a chance going into the weekend might want to consider Rahm at his current price.

Unfortunately, the math gets trickier to work around for the rest of our golfers. Here is what I have as being a proper going rate for the other four plays:

  • Bryson DeChambeau (10/1) - currently (8/1)
  • Webb Simpson (30/1) - currently (30/1)
  • Jason Day (33/1) - currently (35/1)
  • Patrick Cantlay (26.5/1) - currently (25/1)

The one positive thing to note is that nothing is that far off. Only Day shows any long-term value at his number, but everyone is within the margin of error if you make a couple of small tweaks. Sadly, building an outright card today from the five names listed isn't a viable option because our exposure will add up too quickly, not to mention that I am not a proponent of grabbing poor equity wagers. I don't have any massive gripes with anyone that wants to cherrypick a selection or two at their current number, but the value has been sucked out of most of these plays.

 

The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta? 

The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday. There are a handful of qualities that I am using to eliminate golfers, so let's figure out who is standing at the end of this trial run.

1.Golfers Over 45 - Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won the Masters being older than 45 (46 years, 2 months, 23 days). That takes away the following players from this year's pool:

Sandy Lyle, Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir, Larry Mize, Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood

2. Player's Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta - A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That eliminates:

James Sugrue, Andy Ogletree, Lukas Michel, Abel Gallegos, Yuxin Lin, John Augenstein, Jazz Janewattanond, Shugo Imahira, Victor Perez, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam, Tyler Duncan, C.T. Pan, Sung Kang, Andrew Landry, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nick Taylor, Matt Wallace, Nate Lashley, Justin Harding, Dylan Frittelli, Max Homa, Erik Van Rooyen, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston, Collin Morikawa, Lanto Griffin, Cameron Champ, Jason Kokrak, Matthew Wolff, Abraham Ancer, Sebastian Munoz, Sungjae Im and Scottie Scheffler.

3. Golfer's Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance - I don't believe distance is the only decider to find success at Augusta, but it does hurt someone's potential to find the winner's circle if you can't crack the top-50 names in a 90-person field.

Matt Kuchar, Chez Reavie, Graeme McDowell, Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Ian Poulter, Kevin Na, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Adam Hadwin, Mark Leishman, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Bernd Wiesberger

4. Golfer's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Greens - There are too many spots for players to find trouble, and it will show quickly if your short game falters.

Paul Casey, Lucas Glover, Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Woodland, Danny Willet, Bubba Watson, Jimmy Walker, Justin Rose

5. Golfer's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Percentage - Same theory as strokes gained around the greens. Mistakes can add up quickly.

Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Charles Howell III. 

6. Player's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage - The easiest holes at the property will come at your four par-fives, and you can't afford to miss out on your scoring opportunities. That eliminates:

Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott and Billy Horschel 

7. A Top-30 Result at the Venue during the Last Three Years - That isn't going to take out many players, but it is enough to eliminate Tyrrell Hatton from the mix.

 

Who Is Left Standing?

'Spencer's News Desk' projects that one of these 14 golfers will walk out of Augusta victorious. I would advise working my builds on both DFS contests and outright wagers around this group.

Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Cameron Smith, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler. 

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-13-3)

2.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Advertising
Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Northern Trust Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Safeway Open Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
U.S. Open Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17
Corales Puntacana Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T41 (-6) T21 (-9) Win -1.2
Sanderson Farms Brian Harman +110 over Byeong Hun An 1.75 Units to Win 1.93 T37 (-6) MC (+4) Win 1.93
Shriners Open Cameron Smith -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T24 (-15) MC (-3) Win 1
Bermuda Championship Justin Suh -110 over Danny Willet 1.35 Units to Win 1.23 MC (+2) T55 (+1) Loss -1.35

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

26-23-0 (+5.49 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45
U.S. Open Patrick Cantlay -110 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.10 Units to win 1.00 T43 (+15) MC Win 1
Corales Puntacana Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners 0.7 Units to win 0.70 T28 (-8) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Corales Puntacana Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder 0.70 Units to win 0.77 T33 (-7) T52 (-5) Win 0.77
Corales Puntacana Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III 0.70 Units to win 0.70 5 (-14) MC (E) Win 0.7
Sanderson Farms Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini 1.25 Units to win 1.14 MC (+2) T12 (-13) Loss -1.25
Bermuda Championship Will Zalatoris -110 over Brendon Todd 1.10 Units to win 1.00 T16 (-8) MC (+4) Win 1

 

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Justin Thomas ZOZO Championship 12 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Charley Hoffman Sanderson Farms 66 6
Kristoffer Ventura Sanderson Farms 80 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Bubba Watson CJ Cup 100 7
Sam Burns Houston Open 110 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Luke List Corales Puntacana 66 8
Ryan Armour Bermuda Championship 150 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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