RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Waste Management Open

2 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Owen Vrabel, Matt Miller and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - Waste Management Open

Joe Nicely - Hideki Matsuyama

Alternate - Keith Mitchell

After back-to-back runner-up finishes in this contest, I’m feeling a mix of confidence and frustration. Yes, I’ll definitely take the results, but it’s tough being soooo close to wins and not actually getting them.

While I’ve gone slightly off script with my last couple of picks, I feel there’s no need to be contrarian just for the sake of it. As a result, I’m going with a fairly straightforward play for this week’s WM Phoenix Open in Hideki Matsuyama.

If you’ve researched this event at all this week, you probably know that Matsuyama is a two-time winner of the WMPO. The course history is nice, but those victories were a long time ago. It’s the Japanese superstar’s recently rediscovered ability to close out tournaments that puts me on board this week.

His victory last April at the Masters was, obviously, a historical type of win, but it’s his recent victories at the ZOZO Championship and the Sony Open that lead me to believe that Matsuyama has found a killer instinct that appeared to be long gone. He’ll need it this week at TPC Scottsdale against a stacked field of competitors.

Yearly Earnings - $1,899,600
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

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Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Scottie Scheffler

Alternate - Hideki Matsuyama

I have flip-flopped back-and-forth on this pick about 100 times. I considered three realistic routes, but I am not sure any of them were as ideal as I was hoping for when I started my research process for the week.

Full disclosure, I selected Xander Schauffele here last year, and he once again made my shortlist during this go-around. The one thing that eventually took me off of him was that while my model loves his potential to find success at TPC Scottsdale in 2022 - even more so than the selection I inevitably made - I do have some minor concerns with the form. We haven't seen him crack the top-10 in his last six starts, and he has lost with his irons in two consecutive performances. To put that into perspective, he entered the tournament last year with finishes of second, fifth, 17th, 17th, second, fifth and second. I will not be talking anyone out of using him, but I think I would rather wait for the form to turn around marginally.

And all of that left me with a decision of Hideki Matsuyama or Scottie Scheffler. The easy route to take would be Hideki, who has posted multiple top-10 finishes at the venue, including back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017, but I worry about the exposure he will have in this exact contest. It wouldn't shock me if over half of the crew took him, making it suboptimal when trying to play catch-up. If you are front-running your contest to start the year, Matsuyama is the safest route to go, but I will swing for the fence on Scheffler. The American has averaged 2.28 shots with his irons over his last five starts - something we don't always get out of him with his long-term ranking in my model grading only 64th overall in this field. These windows of aberrational production are typically when a player finally breaks through for a victory, so let's gamble on the upside of Scheffler and try to steal a result from the pack.

Yearly Earnings - $580,578
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/4

Matt Miller - Justin Thomas

Alternate -

JT is starting to put it all together. He had a forgettable weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open but for the first time in a while, there was a point where I thought he was going to win the tournament. Thomas gained over a stroke on the greens and is headed to a course where he has historically putted well. If he stays confident with the putter, watch out.

The rowdy crowd at this event also plays into my reasoning for loving JT. He's a guy who rides momentum, one birdie can turn into four or five in a row. There will be no shortage of energy in Scottsdale this week and I believe that will fire Thomas up the whole week. With a fantastic track record at this event, I think this is the week he finally wins one here.

Yearly Earnings - $220,000
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/4

Owen Vrabel - Jon Rahm

Alternate -

Jon Rahm will be my play this week. I'm getting desperate for a top-10 performance, after this dreadful start to the OAD season. While I do think Rahm is at an unbettable number in the outright market, there couldn't be anyone more reliable for an OAD selection. The man just churns out top-ten performances with ease. In his last ten PGA Tour appearances he has finished outside the top 10 just twice and one of those was a 14th place finish.

Rahm is the kind of guy who has risen to the occasion in the raucous atmosphere that comes with the WM Pheonix Open, in his 6 appearances here his worst finish is a 16th and he's finished as high as 5th place finish. Rahm feels extremely due for a W and it would be no surprise if it comes this week. Playing his college golf at Arizona State, Rahm is very comfortable playing some desert golf and would no doubt love to get a win at this event.

Yearly Earnings - $145,381
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

Josh Bennett - Justin Thomas

Alternate - Brooks Koepka

I’m not feeling great about bringing out one of the big guns this week, but I think JT is in a great spot and given his volatility I think it’s a good time to hit him before he goes on a cold streak. Elite iron play usually translates to success in this event, and he’s one of the best at it. This is nothing a stat can tell you, but I also think that the atmosphere of this event is something he enjoys and is motivated by. We’ve seen him in “party” type atmospheres with the team events as well as at this specific event before and he’s usually one of the most noticeable that’s having fun and enjoying it, I think that can have a positive impact on him this week. His recent history here may prove that to be true with a third-place finish and two other top 20 finishes. As long as the putter doesn’t let him down big time, I’m expecting a big week out of JT.

Yearly Earnings - $275,703
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

Andrew Putters - Hideki Matsuyama

Alternate - Viktor Hovland

This is possibly the best fit of any course that these guys play all year on tour. Match that with the fact that Hideki is already a multiple-time winner at TPC Scottsdale, and I would say he’s my guy this week. Look, we know putting stats are nearly out the window here year in and year out, and ball striking plays a key role. Once again, I would say Hideki is my guy. Spencer has already said previously that Hideki is statistically the best ball-striker in the world. Also, we can not argue on his recent form either. Winning once in the fall swing and now at the Sony. I just can not bring myself to pick anyone else in this field. My pick 100% this week is Hideki Matsuyama.

Yearly Earnings - $1,356,350
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/4

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