RADIO
With running backs flying off the board at an insane clip this year, typically 8-10 are taken in the first round alone, elite wide receivers are being drafted at a big discount. This is the exact type of “economy” a ZeroRB drafter thrives in.
Grab elite WR1 and WR2 types in the early rounds while everyone else is going with running backs, then try to find the diamonds in the rough later in the draft. If you choose to go this route I am here to help you find those diamonds.
I’ll be updating this regularly as we get closer to the season and receive more information. Some players may fall off the list, some new ones may show up. But as of today these are my favorite mid-round ZeroRB running back targets in PPR drafts.
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On the Bubble
These running backs are preferred over the ones listed below, but have ADPs that are before the seventh round. If one should fall in your draft they would be the preferred choice.
- Dion Lewis ADP: 6.01 - The Titans made Lewis the 12th-highest paid running back (at the time) and he could very well be the team’s lead back.
- Lamar Miller ADP: 6.02 - D’Onta Foreman looks unlikely to be back anytime soon which means Miller should get plenty of work. He's slimmed down, which should help his explosiveness as well.
- Tevin Coleman ADP: 6.07 - Has standalone flex/RB2 value with Freeman in the lineup in PPR leagues. Has massive upside if Freeman misses games.
Running Back Watch List
Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK) ADP: 7.05
Don’t let the training camp reports of new head coach Jon Gruden wanting to feature Doug Martin scare you off from drafting Lynch. Despite these reports, it seems crazy that Lynch would not be the starter Week 1. He is the perfect Gruden-type back and showed signs of knocking the rust off late last year. Over his final three games he had 60 carries and 272 yards (4.5 YPC). He even added seven catches for good measure. Lynch was one of only 18 running backs to see over 200 carries last season, and he should easily go over that mark again. The Raiders offense should be better as well which should give him more red zone carries. Despite his struggles last year, Lynch still finished as RB24 in PPR leagues. While his days of being a weekly RB1 are over, getting a potential RB2 this late is a value you can’t pass up.
Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET) ADP: 7.06
When the Detroit Lions selected Johnson with the 11th pick in the second round, most everyone was surprised. Johnson was the sixth running back selected in the draft, and went ahead of more highly touted backs such as Derrius Guice and Royce Freeman. The Lions have lacked a run game for what seems like an eternity, but Johnson could be the guy to change that. As a junior at Auburn he totaled 1,391 yards and 18 touchdowns on 285 carries, and added another 24 receptions for 194 yards plus two more scores. Johnson has the potential to be a three-down back at the NFL level, though his situation is not ideal as he will have to contend with LeGarrette Blount on early downs and Theo Riddick in the passing game. Still, the Lions spent high draft capital on him and it seems unlikely they will not give him plenty of work. As long as he has a good camp he should be the opening day starter.
Royce Freeman (RB, DEN) ADP: 7.09
Like Johnson, Freeman is a rookie who profiles as an NFL starter. Taken in the third round by the Denver Broncos, Freeman is a massive 6’0”, 229 pounds who handled 947 carries in his four year college career. Don’t let Freeman’s size fool you, for a big man he is explosive. He ran a 4.54 forty yard dash and had a 34 inch vertical jump. To put that in perspective, Leonard Fournette (6’0, 240) ran a 4.51 forty and had a 28.5 inch vertical. Freeman only has to beat out Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson for starter duties so his path seems to be clearer than Johnson’s. Even if he can’t beat both, he will at worst be the team’s number two back and could certainly push for more as the season wears on. Freeman did suffer a knee injury his senior year which hampered him in the second half, but given what we saw at the combine he seems to be back to 100%. If he wins the Denver job drafters will be kicking themselves for passing on him.
Marlon Mack (RB, IND) ADP: 8.01
With Frank Gore headed to Miami, and Robert Turbin suspended, Mack inherited the starter role in Indianapolis. The Colts didn’t address running back highly in the draft either, taking Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins with the 104th and 169th picks respectively. While Hines may give Mack some competition in the passing game, Mack should have little to no competition for the early down and goal line work. And despite the presence of Hines, Mack had 23 receptions while playing just 30% of the teams snaps, so he should do more than enough in that aspect as well. The cherry on top to all of this is that Andrew Luck appears healthy and ready to start day one. Add in a new offensive philosophy under head coach Frank Reich and all signs are pointing up for Mack.
Rex Burkhead (RB, NEP) ADP: 8.09
Burkhead is the prototypical ZeroRB target. He has standalone value even if we assume that Sony Michel likely takes the starting role, and has tremendous upside should something happen to Michel. Last season Burkhead played all 10 games with Lewis in the lineup and still averaged three receptions a game and 12.98 PPR points. More than flex-worthy. Burkhead is also a big guy and should handle a decent chunk of the team’s goal-line carries, which are often plentiful in this offense. He is someone you can draft and play Week 1 and has the potential to be a league-winner should Michel go down or fall out of favor with the always fickle Bill Belichick.
Corey Clement (RB, PHI) ADP: 11.09
Clement is probably best known for his Super Bowl touchdown catch that helped the Eagles to their first championship, but what was lost in his rookie season was how good he was on limited touches. According to Warren Sharp of SharpFootball, Clement was the Eagles #1 player in receiving Success Rate (65%) and was the #1 running back in success rate (51%). While Jay Ajayi will likely remain the starter, the second year Clement could push him for touches, especially if the Eagles want to keep Ajayi fresh. In one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, getting more touches is always a plus. Clement should have standalone value from Week 1, and offers major upside should Ajayi miss time.
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN) ADP: 12.04
Why doesn’t Bernard get any love? In 2017 in games only he and Mixon played (no Jeremy Hill) he averaged 11.33 fantasy points per game, which puts him at a solid flex level. However, in the two games Mixon missed plus the week 15 game when he left after a quarter, Bernard had 48 carries, 208 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 16 catches for 133 yards. Thats 62.1 PPR points or 20.7 PPR points per game. Those are elite running back numbers. So what does this mean for 2018? It means when you draft Gio you are at worst getting a solid weekly flex player who has elite running back upside if Mixon gets hurt. This is the kind of handcuff you want to draft, one who can help you now and can win your league later.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA) ADP: 12.09
First of all, I don’t buy into the camp reports that Carson will be the starter over Rashaad Penny. The Seahawks invested high draft capital into Penny, and they traded up for him, so they obviously like him. But they like Carson too and there isn’t a lot of running back depth on this roster. So even if Carson starts off as the backup, he should have a role, and if Penny struggles or gets injured that role could be massive. Carson looked great in his short time on the field last year, and despite running behind one of the worst offensive lines averaged 4.2 yards per carry. He also caught seven of his eight targets while averaging 14.8 yards per catch. If we get farther along into pre-season and Carson is still getting first team reps over Penny, his ADP will sky-rocket, so now is the time to draft him.
