Jon Anderson's Shortstop Tiered Rankings and Projections

4 years ago by Jon Anderson

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I am on to shortstop in my position-by-position tiered rankings. Check out the rest of the series at the links below:

First Base
Second Base
Third Base

This is quite a different position than what we've seen so far with first and second base. There are four studs at the position, and lots and lots of steals to be had. Here's how I see the tiers. At the end of each write-up, I'll give you my "favorite" name from each tier. This is who I like the best at their current ADP.

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Tier 1

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Fernando Tatis Jr.	1	2.7	677	112	39	101	26	.283
Trevor Story	2	11.6	672	105	35	100	24	.277

You could certainly make the case that Tatis should be in a tier by himself, but I'm just a little hesitant to jump on that wagon since we've seen just 154 Major Leagues game from the guy. There is no doubt he's the best bet in the entire league for 30/30 season with a strong batting average, and you can see his projections are just through the roof.

I include Story here just because of the track record. He has been a fantasy stud three straight seasons now, and while the run and RBI count may drop a bit with Nolan Arenado leaving town, he is still a young, phenomenal hitter playing half of his games in Coors. Who knows, you may even see him take his base-stealing to a new level without Arenado's bat around.

Favorite: Tatis

Tier 2

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Trea Turner	3	7.2	688	107	23	81	34	.285
Francisco Lindor	4	11.0	682	100	33	90	19	.260

These could have been tier-one guys, and in a lot of drafts, they are first-round picks. However, Tatis and Story just seem to separate themselves a bit. There are doubts that Turner can hit 30 homers and some questions about Lindor's batting average that don't really exist as much with Tatis and Story, so I have them just a small step behind. I think both of these guys has every bit of the upside of the other two players though, and you could see them both doing something crazy like a 30/30 season with a .300 batting average. You really can't lose if you're picking one of these first four shortstops.

Favorite: Lindor

Tier 3

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Adalberto Mondesi	5	23.4	646	84	20	78	55	.257
Bo Bichette	6	23.8	673	100	25	84	24	.281
Corey Seager	7	25.5	645	97	31	99	3	.294
Xander Bogaerts	8	35.4	649	90	26	95	8	.283

There's a pretty significant drop-off from tier two to tier three, and the projections show that. Mondesi is, of course, the most polarizing fantasy player in the game. If he actually steals you 55 bases, he's going to be very valuable, but if he's a real risk to completely ruin your roster. The other three guys are much safer options that will contribute across the board, but the ceilings are just not at the same level as the four players in the top two tiers.

At this point, we've already ranked seven shortstops, so that's probably around or over half the teams in your league having a shortstop. I would really want to get one of these top seven guys, as I think the floor drops off at this point.

Tier 4

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Tim Anderson	9	41.3	664	85	23	79	17	.274
Gleyber Torres	10	69.3	625	87	32	96	6	.271
Javier Baez	11	72.1	646	82	30	97	12	.256
Marcus Semien	12	140.8	682	98	24	76	11	.255

This is no doubt disrespectful of Tim Anderson given what he's done over the last two years, I just don't believe in the batting average, and neither do the projections. I think a .274 mark is fair, although we might be a little low on runs and homers here. He's clearly the top option in this tier.

After Anderson, you have Torres and Baez who should hit you some home runs but are unlikely to help you in batting average or steal a ton of bases. Then there's Semien, who maybe should be in the next tier, but I think he's in for a nice season in that revamped Blue Jays lineup in a much better park to hit in. He won't be hitting .290 or hitting 30 homers or stealing 20 bags, but I think you'll be pretty happy with the production you get from pick 141.

Favorite: Semien

Tier 5

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Dansby Swanson	13	104.2	642	81	20	73	11	.250
Carlos Correa	14	126.9	622	81	27	87	2	.261
Tommy Edman	15	129.7	499	61	12	52	13	.266
Jonathan Villar	16	144.2	424	54	11	43	22	.253
Paul DeJong	17	219.8	644	81	28	87	6	.248

This is the last tier where playing time is secure, but all of these players have gone long stretches without being very valuable as fantasy players. The only strong steals source left is Villar, who is now in a utility role with the Mets as you can see by that 424 plate appearance projection. Edman is interesting for steals as well, but stole just two bases in the short 2020 season while looking much worse at the plate overall.

Favorite: Correa

Tier 6

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Didi Gregorius	18	164.7	586	73	25	82	7	.256
Jake Cronenworth	19	173.3	422	49	8	46	8	.272
Andres Gimenez	20	181.5	429	49	10	48	18	.260
Jorge Polanco	21	211.8	557	74	15	64	7	.270
Chris Taylor	22	217.7	592	72	17	69	8	.246
David Fletcher	23	221.5	666	81	9	59	8	.278
Wander Franco	24	293.4	388	39	7	37	8	.240

We have big question marks with every name here, whether it be skill-wise or playing time. These aren't players you want to depend on to be starters on your fantasy team.

Favorite: Gimenez (for late steals)

Tier 7

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Ha-Seong Kim	25	182.4	277	34	9	33	7	.258
Willi Castro	26	239.8	514	60	14	59	8	.268
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	27	294.3	577	59	8	54	14	.260
Amed Rosario	28	299.3	415	49	10	47	11	.280
Joey Wendle	29	311.7	397	42	7	39	10	.256
Willy Adames	30	331.0	526	59	17	62	6	.248
Nick Ahmed	31	391.3	593	64	17	67	7	.243
Miguel Rojas	32	399.6	551	60	10	53	10	.271

And here we have guys that don't do anything particularly well for fantasy purposes, mostly with playing time questions as well. Most of these names will go undrafted in standard leagues, so it's not a very consequential tier. If Kim can find some playing time, he's easily the most interesting name here because of his perceived upside.

Favorite: Kim

Rundown

This is a position that is heavy on studs at the top, there are four huge ceiling players at the top that you may want to invest a first-round pick on. However, there are also some strong names in tiers three and four that fall quite a bit in the draft, making this a fine position to fill in a bit later.
More than likely, you're going to be getting a lot of your steals from this position. There are way more base-stealers here than other positions, so keep an eye on those projections when filling your shortstop position, if you don't get some here you might not be getting any at all.
There's really not much to like late, so prioritize getting one of the top seven names on your squad.

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