RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers. August is here and that means we've got two months of gameplay left to the finish line.
We just got blitzed by a busy trade deadline, so this week's edition will largely focus on arms who moved and what direction they trend as a result. Let's hop right into the latest edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues. Injured players are left off of this iteration. Let's move along with my top-101 SP for the rest of 2022!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Jacob deGrom made his 2022 debut on Tuesday and we should all consider ourselves lucky to have him back. Fantasy teams suddenly have a top-five ace at the ready, with re-injury risk being the only reason for concern. He struck out six with zero walks, allowing one run on three hits over five frames. We saw 102-MPH heat with sliders in the mid-90s throughout his 59-pitch return, so breathe easy. Your star is back at it.
-Shohei Ohtani was left in too long at Atlanta but rebounded with an electric 11/0 K/BB quality start against Texas on July 28. The two-way superstar has struck out at least 10 batters in six straight outings, resulting in a video-game caliber 68/8 K/BB ratio in that window. That is how one survives despite half of those six starts having a BABIP of .400 or higher sandbagging one’s efforts.
-Luis Castillo goes from hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark to a pitcher’s ally in T-Mobile Park. GABP had the second-best wOBA park factor per EVAnalytics, with a 3% bump above average for BABIP and the highest HR factor at 25% above average, while T-Mobile is 3% below average in wOBA thanks to a drop in doubles and triples, resulting in a BABIP dip of 4% against the average. It’s the little things that add up in a game like baseball!
-Robbie Ray’s new arsenal had been working wonders but Houston demolished it in back-to-back starts. Seattle can’t be pleased that their frontline arm can’t handle a division rival but fantasy players can still deploy the southpaw against non-Houston squads.
-Frankie Montas likely gets a morale boost going to a contender in the Bronx, but will additional wins offset the loss of the Oakland Coliseum’s spacious foul territory? He’s suffered some small-sample ouchies on the road in 2022 with a 4.85 ERA in 26 IP, but has a 2.63 ERA in 78 ⅔ IP in Oakland. Let’s look back to 2021 when the 29-year-old had a 3.34 ERA/3.40 ERA home/road split (100 and 87 IP, respectively).
He should be A-OK, as he also moves to one of the best defensive catchers in the game with Jose Trevino. The Coliseum suppresses wOBA by 5% compared to the league average per EVAnalytics, but Yankee Stadium is still -2% even with the 23-point gap in HR factor (YS: 1.05, OC: 0.82).
-Tyler Mahle also escapes GABP, heading to a neutral Target Field up in Minnesota. While it plays close to the average in nearly every park factor, good ol’ EVAnalytics (just assume they’re the source!) has Target at 8% below the average for home runs against that aforementioned +25% mark from GABP. The 27-year-old had a 4.76 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and .766 OPS against at home (64 ⅓ IP) against 40 road innings with a 3.83 ERA, 2.66 FIP, and a .562 OPS. He’s free, and so are we.
-Jordan Montgomery has given up four earned runs in each of his last two starts, with four starts of four ER in his last eight outings. This comes after he opened 2022 with zero starts allowing more than three earned in his first 13 trips to the hill. He’d only surrendered seven home runs in those 13 outings but has given up eight in those most recent eight starts now.
The good news is that he goes from HR-happy Yankee Stadium (+5% park factor) to Busch Stadium (-10%) away from the AL East. We’ll take it. Going from Jose Trevino to Yadier Molina isn’t so bad, at least.
-Jose Quintana joins Monty in St. Louis with the nice home park, now facing the poor Pirates instead of needing their support. PNC Park was similar in terms of suppressing home runs but the other park factors are all friendlier for pitchers at Busch. The southpaw got tagged for six runs at Coors on July 15 but has otherwise only surrendered eight runs in a six-start span, scoring a 34/9 K/BB ratio in 39 frames since June 23.
-Noah Syndergaard experiences little shift going from the Angels to the Phillies, so I'm not reacting much. Where he does gain a slight edge is going from Max Stassi's defensive catching to a top-10 glove in J.T. Realmuto. It won't help Thor much in terms of holding on the likes of Starling Marte, but every data point counts! The Phils also have a stronger bullpen going than the Angels for those of you who like to hold onto your wins in the late game.
-Jake Odorizzi gets a slight ding going from Minute Maid Park to Truist, but at least he stays on a strong contender with healthy run support. Being a fly-ball pitcher at Truist may yield a few implosions along the way but he’s been lucky so far, posting a 6% HR/FB rate against a 10.4% career mark (11.6% in ‘21). Just note the 3.61 FIP is tied to a 4.61 xFIP as a result!
Top-101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.
EV = Earned Value via Fangraphs (Last 30 Days), $ = My projected dollar value (think auction), PV = Previous $ Value
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $8.0 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Shane McClanahan | 2 | $5.9 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 3 | $11.5 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 4 | $8.3 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 2 | Jacob deGrom | 5 | N/A | 42.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -1 | 2 | Gerrit Cole | 6 | $6.4 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 2 | Justin Verlander | 7 | $10.5 | 40.0 | 39.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 2 | Zack Wheeler | 8 | $5.4 | 39.0 | 38.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 9 | $8.1 | 38.0 | 37.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 10 | $2.4 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 2 | Carlos Rodon | 11 | $9.9 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 2 | Brandon Woodruff | 12 | $10.1 | 36.0 | 35.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 3 | Max Fried | 13 | $10.9 | 32.0 | 31.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 14 | $8.9 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 15 | $2.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 16 | $1.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 17 | $10.0 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 18 | $6.6 | 28.5 | 28.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 3 | Logan Webb | 19 | $3.9 | 27.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 3 | Julio Urias | 20 | $4.8 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 21 | $6.9 | 24.5 | 23.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 4 | Shane Bieber | 22 | $3.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 4 | Spencer Strider | 23 | $8.1 | 22.0 | 17.5 | 4.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 4 | Nestor Cortes | 24 | $4.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 4 | Luis Castillo | 25 | $5.6 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 4 | Robbie Ray | 26 | $0.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 4 | Tony Gonsolin | 27 | $2.3 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | 28 | $3.5 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 5 | Cristian Javier | 29 | $0.4 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 5 | Freddy Peralta | 30 | N/A | 17.5 | N/A | N/A |
| -2 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 31 | $3.4 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 5 | Kyle Wright | 32 | $1.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 5 | Frankie Montas | 33 | -$0.3 | 16.0 | 15.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 34 | $7.1 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 35 | $3.1 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Luis Garcia | 36 | $2.2 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Nathan Eovaldi | 37 | $2.3 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Logan Gilbert | 38 | $4.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Andrew Heaney | 39 | $2.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -8 | 6 | Lucas Giolito | 40 | $3.4 | 12.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 6 | Triston McKenzie | 41 | $9.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Zac Gallen | 42 | $3.7 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 43 | $1.3 | 12.0 | 13.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 44 | -$0.3 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Jose Berrios | 45 | $5.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Tyler Anderson | 46 | $7.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 47 | N/A | 10.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 6 | Tyler Mahle | 48 | $0.7 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 7 | Sean Manaea | 49 | -$2.5 | 10.0 | 11.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Nick Lodolo | 50 | $4.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 7 | Alex Wood | 51 | $4.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 7 | Mike Clevinger | 52 | $3.9 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 7 | Taijuan Walker | 53 | $2.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 7 | Jose Urquidy | 54 | $5.3 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -9 | 7 | Lance Lynn | 55 | $0.9 | 8.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -7 | 7 | Sonny Gray | 56 | $1.4 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 7 | Miles Mikolas | 57 | $1.6 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 58 | $6.0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Michael Kopech | 59 | -$2.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 60 | $6.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 7 | George Kirby | 61 | $7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 7 | Alex Cobb | 62 | $7.9 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 7 | Reid Detmers | 63 | $8.1 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 7 | Tarik Skubal | 64 | $4.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 7 | Adam Wainwright | 65 | $0.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -6 | 7 | Aaron Ashby | 66 | $2.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 7 | Martin Perez | 67 | $1.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 7 | Blake Snell | 68 | $4.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 8 | Braxton Garrett | 69 | $5.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 70 | $5.3 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 9 | 8 | Merrill Kelly | 71 | $9.6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 8 | Keegan Thompson | 72 | $4.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -7 | 8 | Nick Pivetta | 73 | -$1.8 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 8 | Josiah Gray | 74 | -$1.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 9 | Hunter Greene | 75 | $5.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 7 | 9 | Kutter Crawford | 76 | $5.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 9 | Noah Syndergaard | 77 | $0.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 11 | 9 | Brady Singer | 78 | $8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -11 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 79 | $0.3 | 3.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 9 | Drew Rasmussen | 80 | $4.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 9 | Ross Stripling | 81 | $5.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 9 | Jose Quintana | 82 | $6.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 83 | $5.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -14 | 9 | Eric Lauer | 84 | $1.9 | 2.0 | 4.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 9 | Jeffrey Springs | 85 | -$0.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 9 | Madison Bumgarner | 86 | $2.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 10 | Johnny Cueto | 87 | $3.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 10 | Paul Blackburn | 88 | $1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 10 | Corey Kluber | 89 | $7.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 90 | -$1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 91 | -$0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Justin Steele | 92 | $2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 93 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Mitch Keller | 94 | $4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Jake Odorizzi | 95 | $3.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 10 | Jakob Junis | 96 | $1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 10 | Zach Plesac | 97 | $2.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 10 | Brad Keller | 98 | $3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Spenser Watkins | 99 | $7.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Graham Ashcraft | 100 | $2.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 10 | Domingo German | 101 | -$1.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
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