RADIO
The final month of the 2020 fantasy baseball season is here and that means we're supplying those Week 8 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks to help analyze where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward. You can check out my weekly Top 101 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.
David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for pitcher and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.
And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike (CSW) rates, xwOBA, and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 8 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here.
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 8
| Rank | $ | Tier | Player | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 1 | 43.0 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 18.8 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Still the champ. |
| 2 | 37.0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 13.9 | 38.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 3 | 37.0 | 1 | Yu Darvish | 16.9 | 29.0 | 8.0 ▲ | Darvish is amazing and getting wins, unlike deGrom. |
| 4 | 33.0 | 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 7.1 | 30.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 5 | 33.0 | 2 | Gerrit Cole | 3.6 | 38.0 | -5.0 ▼ | The K's are there but damage is coming with them. |
| 6 | 31.0 | 2 | Trevor Bauer | 11.0 | 34.0 | -3.0 ▼ | |
| 7 | 29.0 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 9.5 | 29.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Still immense talent and K's, but less consistent than past. |
| 8 | 29.0 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 10.3 | 26.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 9 | 26.0 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 13.2 | 22.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 10 | 25.0 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 11.5 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Inflated BABIP, but righting the ship. |
| 11 | 25.0 | 3 | Jack Flaherty | 3.3 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 12 | 23.0 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 9.4 | 20.0 | 3.0 ▲ | Now sitting on seven consecutive quality starts. |
| 13 | 23.0 | 3 | Walker Buehler | 4.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 ▲ | Came off the IL with five shutout innings, that's a relief. |
| 14 | 22.0 | 3 | Max Fried | 13.9 | 19.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 15 | 22.0 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 11.3 | 30.0 | -8.0 ▼ | |
| 16 | 22.0 | 3 | Kenta Maeda | 11.1 | 22.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 17 | 20.0 | 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 7.3 | 14.0 | 6.0 ▲ | K's for days, command is finally showing up. |
| 18 | 20.0 | 3 | Zack Greinke | 14.1 | 23.0 | -3.0 ▼ | |
| 19 | 18.5 | 4 | Dinelson Lamet | 9.1 | 22.0 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| 20 | 17.5 | 4 | Lance Lynn | 9.8 | 23.0 | -5.5 ▼ | |
| 21 | 16.0 | 4 | Dylan Bundy | 12.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 22 | 14.0 | 4 | Carlos Carrasco | 5.4 | 15.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 23 | 14.0 | 4 | Blake Snell | 1.8 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 24 | 14.0 | 4 | Zack Wheeler | 10.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 25 | 14.0 | 4 | Charlie Morton | 2.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 ▲ | He's back and looked sharp, I'm encouraged. |
| 26 | 13.0 | 4 | Aaron Civale | 10.0 | 14.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 27 | 12.0 | 4 | Zach Plesac | 8.5 | 1.0 | 11.0 ▲ | Great pitcher, no longer in timeout for being a fool. |
| 28 | 11.0 | 5 | Brandon Woodruff | 9.7 | 15.5 | -4.5 ▼ | Started 2020 hot, but only one W/QS in last six starts. |
| 29 | 11.0 | 5 | Patrick Corbin | 5.9 | 15.5 | -4.5 ▼ | His peripherals are rather frightful, velo way down. |
| 30 | 10.0 | 5 | Mike Clevinger | 1.4 | 12.0 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 31 | 9.5 | 5 | Kyle Hendricks | 9.1 | 11.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 32 | 9.5 | 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 5.6 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 33 | 9.5 | 5 | Corbin Burnes | 11.6 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Hitting his stride with huge strikeouts, buy in. |
| 34 | 9.5 | 5 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 10.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | I was wrong, he's handling the AL just fine. |
| 35 | 9.0 | 5 | Jose Berrios | 5.5 | 9.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Last six starts: Three very good, three very bad. |
| 36 | 9.0 | 5 | Andrew Heaney | 11.9 | 9.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 37 | 9.0 | 5 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 2.9 | 10.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 38 | 9.0 | 5 | German Marquez | 8.8 | 9.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 39 | 8.5 | 5 | Chris Paddack | 2.8 | 9.5 | -1.0 ▼ | One step forward is followed by two steps back. No good. |
| 40 | 8.5 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 10.7 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 41 | 8.5 | 5 | Zach Davies | 10.7 | 2.0 | 6.5 ▲ | What a surge from Davies! Expect BABIP to rise, but dang. |
| 42 | 8.0 | 6 | Dustin May | 3.6 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 43 | 8.0 | 6 | Chris Bassitt | 3.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 44 | 8.0 | 6 | Cristian Javier | 2.6 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 45 | 8.0 | 6 | Marco Gonzales | 8.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 ▲ | Barely walking anyone, ripping off QS after QS. |
| 46 | 8.0 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 10.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 47 | 6.5 | 7 | Dallas Keuchel | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 48 | 5.5 | 7 | Masahiro Tanaka | 4.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 49 | 5.0 | 7 | Sixto Sanchez | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Strong start to MLB career, rarely issuing free passes. |
| 50 | 4.5 | 7 | Julio Urias | 5.7 | 8.0 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| 51 | 4.5 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 2.9 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 52 | 4.0 | 7 | Garrett Richards | 3.3 | 5.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 53 | 4.0 | 7 | Frankie Montas | 2.8 | 6.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Three terrible starts in a row, hard to stomach this. |
| 54 | 4.0 | 7 | Zach Eflin | 7.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 55 | 4.0 | 7 | Tony Gonsolin | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 56 | 4.0 | 7 | Matthew Boyd | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 57 | 4.0 | 7 | Triston McKenzie | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 58 | 4.0 | 7 | Ian Anderson | 2.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 59 | 3.5 | 8 | Adam Wainwright | 6.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 60 | 3.0 | 8 | Dylan Cease | -2.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 ▼ | When the K% and BB% are nearly identical, we worry. |
| 61 | 3.0 | 8 | Antonio Senzatela | 7.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 62 | 2.5 | 8 | Kyle Freeland | 5.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 ▼ | Coors will bite everyone sooner or later. |
| 63 | 2.5 | 8 | Danny Duffy | 2.8 | 3.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 64 | 2.5 | 8 | Brad Keller | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 65 | 2.0 | 8 | Kevin Gausman | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 66 | 2.0 | 8 | Randy Dobnak | 5.7 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Nibbles and notches wins, but that arsenal = low floor. |
| 67 | 2.0 | 8 | Josh Lindblom | 2.5 | 3.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 68 | 2.0 | 8 | Adrian Houser | 2.6 | 4.5 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| 69 | 2.0 | 8 | Casey Mize | -0.6 | 3.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 70 | 1.5 | 9 | Taijuan Walker | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 71 | 1.5 | 9 | Alec Mills | 0.6 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 72 | 1.5 | 9 | Jordan Montgomery | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 73 | 1.5 | 9 | Ross Stripling | -2.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 74 | 1.5 | 9 | Sean Manaea | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 75 | 1.5 | 9 | Spencer Turnbull | 5.4 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 76 | 1.5 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 77 | 1.5 | 9 | Michael Pineda | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Looked sharp in his return, but mediocre K's limit ceiling. |
| 78 | 1.5 | 9 | Justin Dunn | -0.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 79 | 1.5 | 9 | Josh Fleming | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 80 | 1.5 | 9 | Mike Minor | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 81 | 1.5 | 9 | Luke Weaver | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 82 | 1.5 | 9 | Rich Hill | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 83 | 1.0 | 10 | Griffin Canning | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 84 | 1.0 | 10 | Tarik Skubal | -0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 85 | 1.0 | 10 | David Peterson | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 86 | 1.0 | 10 | Justus Sheffield | 7.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 87 | 1.0 | 10 | Tyler Chatwood | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 88 | 1.0 | 10 | John Means | -3.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 89 | 1.0 | 10 | Anthony DeSclafani | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 90 | 1.0 | 10 | Dakota Hudson | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 91 | 1.0 | 10 | Johnny Cueto | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 92 | 1.0 | 10 | Jon Lester | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 93 | 1.0 | 10 | Mike Fiers | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 94 | 1.0 | 10 | Ryan Yarbrough | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 95 | 1.0 | 10 | Dane Dunning | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Exciting stuff, but still walks too many. |
| 96 | 1.0 | 10 | Chad Kuhl | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 97 | 1.0 | 10 | Brett Anderson | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 98 | 1.0 | 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 99 | 1.0 | 10 | J.A. Happ | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 100 | 1.0 | 10 | Matt Shoemaker | -0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 101 | 1.0 | 10 | Elieser Hernandez | 3.9 | 4.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
Starting Pitcher Movers of Note
Tyler Glasnow (SP, Rays): Glasnow had shown signs of greatness in abbreviated starts to open 2020, but he didn’t go five innings in his first four outings with a poor 12 earned over 15 ⅓ IP. Even with a wild 27 K’s in that span, the damage was too much to stomach -- especially with no chance at a win given the short stints.
But his last two starts, coming against the O’s and Yanks, have seen him tear through offenses with a zesty 22/2 K/BB ratio over 13 innings of two-run ball. Back-to-back lengthy starts with just one walk in each is a welcome sight after issuing multiple walks in all five of his previous appearances. With a feel for his arsenal apparent, we may see a September reminiscent of his beautiful 2019 campaign. Click through for a highlight reel of Glasnow at work:
Tyler Glasnow was making everyone look silly tonight. pic.twitter.com/DwQ3E8smbm
— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2020
Patrick Corbin (SP, Nationals): While Corbin’s 3.79 ERA isn’t a red flag, the 1.34 WHIP and middling 20.9% strikeout rate surely are. The southpaw’s Savant profile shows a frightful .302 xBA and .477 xSLG while his Fangraphs page has last year’s 14.2% swinging-strike rate falling to 10.5% so far. What could the problem be?
Whether it’s the main culprit or not, his velocity is concerning. The four-seamer is averaging 89.8 mph, a significant fall from 91.8 mph in ‘19. His other pitches have fallen off at the same rate and hitters just aren’t missing nearly as much. The spin rate on his pitches is down at least 100 rpm across the board.
The result is his contact rate allowed is up nearly 10 percentage points while his O-Contact rate is up a whopping 14 percentage points! I wish I had a bright side to offer, but I can’t see a turnaround coming without more life on his pitches.
Corbin Burnes (SP/RP, Brewers): Burnes has shifted into another gear lately, finally pushing into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. Now, two of those did come against Pittsburgh, but a 24/5 K/BB ratio in 17 ⅓ IP is heartwarming. He’s faced at least 15 hitters in all eight of his appearances and has only allowed more than three hits once, but struggled with walks early on.
Not only have the walks gone down and his starts lasted longer, but he’s continued to keep the ball in the yard with just one homer allowed across 38 ⅓ IP. Compare that 0.23 HR/9 with his wild 3.12 HR/9 from last season and it’s like night and day. As always, neither extreme makes for a reliable projection moving forward but his current form warrants a boost.
Zach Davies (SP, Padres): Davies may be cruising on a lowly .220 BABIP but the Padres have done all they can to support their starting pitchers. When the bullpen was struggling and injured, they made many deadline moves to call in reinforcements. The offense is offering up insane run support. And Davies himself has made changes too.
After throwing his fastball over 52% of the time in each of his first five seasons, Davies has cut that back to 37% in 2020. He’s increased his changeup to a whopping 40% next to a cutter at 20%, with a lightly-used curveball (3%) sprinkled in. All four pitches have a positive pitch value per Fangraphs. Mix that with his going at least five innings in each of his eight appearances this year and you’ve got a recipe for wins twirled into the picture. I can dig it, even as the hits start falling.
Marco Gonzales (SP, Mariners): Gonzales turned in a complete-game win over the Angels on Aug. 31, which included three strikeouts of Mike Trout, giving Marco his fourth win over his last six outings. You can watch him work for a minute here:
.@MarcoGonzales_ was out there painting yesterday. ??️ pic.twitter.com/RVd0BGPsQv
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 1, 2020
Sporting a 3.09 ERA/0.92 WHIP and nearly a strikeout per inning, Gonzales is succeeding with well-placed fastballs that lead his four-pitch mix. He throws all four over 13% of the time, showing a strong command that’s issued just four free passes over 43 ⅔ IP. Limit those and your floor rises like the sea.
Triston McKenzie (SP, CLE): The young Cleveland right-hander has only allowed three earned runs on eight hits across his first 16 MLB innings, racking up a clean 19/4 K/BB ratio in the process. Some thought his late-August debut was a deadline audition as a potential trade chip, but his 10-strikeout undressing of Detroit wowed us all. The .188 BABIP will rise, but his minor-league track record points to plus whiffs and sturdy control. His spot in the AL Central means he also draws favorable matchups often, such as his next slated start against the Royals on Sept. 8.
Matthew Boyd (SP, DET): Boyd’s turned in two quality starts in a row, tallying 14 strikeouts with zero walks in two starts against Minnesota. He’s given up three solo homers in that span, so the longball issue is persisting (11 HRs in 40 ⅔ IP). But if he’s curtailed the walks then I can feel better about buying into the redemption arc here. And Minnesota does have an affinity for clearing the fence. He lines up to face the Brewers next on Sept. 9.
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