RADIO
This week presents a lot of high-risk/high-reward streaming options that could swing either way. There are also a couple of pitchers that I feel strongly about based on their upcoming schedule and recent trends.
Every streamer brings a degree of risk, which is why they are available on the waiver wire in the first place. The key is to pick the right players at the right time by looking beyond season-long stats.
As a reminder, each week this fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column will identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week, ahead of the Sunday night waiver wire runs for leagues with weekly transactions. This list will be limited to players under 50% rostered in Yahoo! and divided into three sections based on recommendation levels: solid bets, risky picks, and must-avoids.
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Solid Two-Start Pitcher Streamers
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners - 46% rostered
Scheduled starts: @BAL, @TEX
Some have jumped off the Kirby hype train after the last two starts in which he allowed nine ER and three HR over 10 innings.
I feel like 2022 George Kirby was a trap. I definitely walked right into it
— Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) May 25, 2022
Maybe it feels as if those FAB dollars were wasted but he might be about to redeem himself and get that train back a runnin'.
Kirby was hit hard the last two starts but he struck out nine in his latest one and has only walked two batters over four starts. This is what we expected - a pitcher who pounds the strike zone and challenges hitters. He's hitting the strike zone at a 54.4% clip that's six points above league average but batters are making zone contact at a rate six points lower than average. Oddly, he's throwing fewer first-pitch strikes than most pitchers, waiting until he's behind in the count often to start crossing the plate. If he corrects that issue, better results should come, especially against teams that have swing-and-miss issues.
Speaking of swinging and missing, the Baltimore Orioles. They own the sixth-highest team K-rate (24.3%) and have the third-lowest contact rate (72.1%) in the majors. The Rangers aren't far behind with a 23.3% K% that is 12th and are even worse at making contact with a 71.7% Contact%.
If Kirby was rage-dropped in your league, this is the time to swoop in and stream him. If he's on your bench, put him back in before Tuesday evening.
Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians - 45% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs KC, @BAL
Quantrill has one of the lowest strikeout rates among all starting pitchers at 14.6% and has earned one win. That's not the type of pitcher you want in your rotation unless he's really helping you out in ratios. Quantrill has done that for the most part as he has for his entire MLB career. Quantrill has kept a 2.89 and 2.25 ERA the past two seasons and is at 3.42 this season. A 1.23 WHIP isn't anything to write home about but it's passable. For contrast, Walker Buehler also has a 1.23 WHIP this year and Shane Bieber is at a 1.25 right now.
Quantrill is good at limiting big-time damage and rarely has a blow-up start but he doesn't have any big upside either. A favorable pair of matchups push him to the Solid category because the Royals and O's are just that bad on offense. When you pick a streamer, something has to give and in this case, it's the strikeouts. Just be warned long-term that he might be due for regression; his 5.18 SIERA is the highest among all qualified SP.
Rich Hill, Boston Red Sox - 7% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs BAL, @OAK
The Sox have been playing piggyback with Hill most of the season, using him for just over four innings per start on average and then riding the bullpen. The obvious drawback is that he's got just one win and one quality start (the same game) over eight starts. His K% is also down to a career-low 16.7%. So what reason do we have to be optimistic?
The schedule, obviously. Baltimore and Oakland are both bottom-five in runs scored this season. Beyond that, it should be noted that in three of Hill's last four starts he has gone at least five innings. He won't ever be stretched beyond six frames but two great matchups could give him a chance to help fantasy teams much more than he has so far.
Risky Two-Start Pitcher Streamer Picks
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies - 36% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs MIA, vs ATL
Shout out to the 36% of you still holding onto Marquez out of sheer desperation. Among qualified starters, Marquez's 1.58 WHIP is second-worst and his 6.30 is just nauseating. He's pitching to a 4.01 SIERA, however, so maybe better times are coming. His BABIP is high and his strand rate is extremely low as well. Marquez isn't helping himself out enough by striking out just 18.1% of batters, though. He's doubled his sinker rate from last year and that has come with ugly results as it's getting pounded to the tune of a .415 BA.
Marquez is far from reliable but the hope for positive regression keeps him in play for deeper leagues based on matchups. No team has scored fewer runs over the past week than Miami. Atlanta is potential blow-up spot for Marquez but they also rank dead last in team K%. It would take a desperate situation to stream Marquez but there are clearly worse options, as will be evident below.
Dylan Bundy, Minnesota Twins - 21% rostered
Scheduled starts: @DET, @TOR
Bundy's velocity has slowly been decreasing since 2016 so he's wisely backed off on his four-seam usage. His breakthrough season in 2020 was mostly thanks to the effectiveness of his slider, which induced a 50% Whiff rate that season and led to a career-high 27% K%.
The shortened season has proven to be an outlier for Bundy, who has struggled ever since. The batting average against his slider was down to .138 in 2020 but it has more than doubled since then, up to .286 in 2022.
Bundy's season has been an odd one, though. Of the 17 runs he's allowed, 15 of them have come in two starts, so he has been really effective in the five other starts. I would have confidence in a road start facing Detroit but the Toronto game scares me. They've hit the slider fairly well this season, ranking 10th with a .625 OPS against the pitch with a K% three points lower than league average. That offense hasn't lived up to its potential this year but they could be on the verge of breaking out any time. Bundy hasn't been as bad as his stats make it look but the risk is still present in any given outing.
David Peterson, New York Mets - 12% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs WAS, @LAD
After a rough 2021, Peterson has been effective in 2022 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 25 innings. He continues to improve his walk rate and nearly all his peripherals match his rookie season, so it appears he's on the right track. Peterson will have a good shot to earn a QS at home versus Washington but then has to travel west to face the Dodgers, which is an obvious concern. Regardless of how well he limits damage, don't expect many strikeouts this week. Only St. Louis strikes out less than the Nats and Dodgers, who own 19.6% and 19.5% team K rates respectively.
Nick Martinez, San Diego Padres - 7% rostered
Scheduled starts: @STL, @MIL
In his return from Japan, Martinez has produced a big jump in strikeout rate. He's struck out 41 in 39 2/3 IP and only walked six batters. The results have been solid but he isn't going deep in games, topping out at five innings in all but one start.
We've already established that the Cards hardly whiff but Milwaukee is more generous and is dealing with several injuries to the offense. I much prefer Martinez in his second start than his first but he doesn't carry as much risk as most other two-start streamers.
Jakob Junis, San Francisco Giants - 7% rostered
Scheduled starts: @PHI, @MIA
It's hard to believe that Junis carries a 2.76 ERA and 0.95 WHIP into this week. That's not a dig at him, it's simply the reality based on his Statcast profile.
He's been spectacular as far as not handing out free passes as usual but he's had quite a bit of luck in the batted-ball outcomes.
Pitching in San Fran helps all veteran pitchers seemingly but he doesn't get the benefit of home cooking this week. Junis will face the potent Philly offense on the road but then gets a slight reprieve in Miami.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles - 2% rostered
Scheduled starts: @BOS, vs CLE
Wells is among the best at restricting walks this year with a 3.9% BB%. It's too bad his K-rate has plummeted too, down to 16.1%. Wells has become a pitcher focused on inducing soft contact by incorporating his offspeed stuff more. His changeup has a 30.2% CSW and a 17.1% SwStr, so it's the closest thing he has to a strikeout pitch but he's not getting batters to whiff often enough to be reliable for fantasy purposes.
This is a bad time to catch Boston on the road; the Red Sox have a league-leading 1.010 OPS and 17 HR over the past week. Wells is running into a buzzsaw and could get into trouble quickly. He should have a much easier time when facing Cleveland later in the week.
Glenn Otto, Texas Rangers - 2% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs TB, vs SEA
Otto just barely draws two Start designations in Jon Anderson's weekly Start/Sit score-based recommendation matrix. His ratios have been skewed by a start two weeks ago against Boston in which he allowed eight ER. Control has been an issue, however, as he owns a 25-15 K-BB rate. It's still hard to know what to expect from the rookie, so proceed with caution.
Erick Fedde, Washington Nationals - 2% rostered
Scheduled starts: @NYM, @CIN
Despite a jump in walk rate, Fedde has seen his ERA drop this season. He's been especially strong in May, posting a 1.95 ERA in five starts. He faced the Mets in his first appearance of the season, allowing two runs and five hits in five innings. His next start comes against the Reds who, despite their 20-run outburst the other day, don't qualify as a scary offense. On paper, Fedde might appear to be a solid starter but he's outperforming his 4.41 SIERA and just doesn't have the ceiling to be considered a must-stream.
Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies - 1% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs MIA, vs ATL
So far so good for Feltner, who struck out seven and walked two in each of his first two starts. He held Pittsburgh to three hits and two runs in his most recent start. He could be similarly effective against Miami, which has been largely punchless this season. The Braves are being generous with punchouts this year, striking out more than any other team. Feltner is a sneaky source of Ks this coming week and brings moderate risk to fantasy teams' ratios.
Ethan Small, Milwaukee Brewers - 1% rostered
Scheduled starts: @CHC, vs SD
It would be bold to recommend adding Small for his MLB debut when he follows up with the Padres. He's been dominant at Triple-A this season, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 49 K in 38 1/3 innings.
Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen wasn't overly concerned with his jump in walks last year and believes he has the chance to retain a rotation spot this season while acknowledging that he must stay consistent in the zone to avoid the long ball.
Small’s changeup is devastating, and it has consistent arm-side finish. He also does all sorts of crafty stuff, like varying his timing to the plate in several different ways, that disorients hitters.
The Cubs strike out at the fourth-highest clip in the league, which is promising for Small in his first start if nerves don't get the best of him. Small might become an intriguing waiver wire add if he is successful this week.
Rony Garcia, Detroit Tigers - 0% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs MIN, @NYY
Garcia has been effective out of the pen this season, notching 22 K in 18 IP with a 3.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He joins the rotation out of necessity as every single Detroit starter other than Tarik Skubal has hit the IL this season. Don't expect him to last too long in either start and temper expectations based on the offenses he'll have to face.
Stay Away from these Two-Start Pitchers
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals - 9% rostered
Scheduled starts: @NYM, @CIN
Shout out to the 9% of you who play in deep NL-only leagues and have no better option than to roster an innings-eater who will destroy your ratios. At least that's my working assumption. Corbin has been disastrous in nearly half his starts this year, allowing five ER or more on four occasions. He had a decent three-game stretch in early May but has been tagged each of his last two outings. Two road contests forebode disaster again for different reasons - the Mets are good and the Reds' ballpark is a hitter's dream. The Reds are looking a little better on offense recently too. Regardless, you simply cannot trust Corbin.
Ryan Yarbrough, Tampa Bay Rays - 3% rostered
Scheduled starts: @TEX, vs CHW
Yarbrough draws two 'Sit' recommendations from Jon this week and I can't disagree. There has never been much K upside here and a rough start could get him the hook early on. That's not especially likely against Texas but it definitely is when he faces the White Sox late in the week. Nothing compels me to consider Yarbrough in any way.
Zach Thompson, Pittsburgh Pirates - 3% rostered
Scheduled starts: @LAD, vs ARI
Other than that one week when Thompson faced the Reds twice and blanked them over 11 innings, he's been completely irrelevant in fantasy. In six other starts, he's allowed 21 ER in 22 1/3 innings. When you see the Dodgers next on the schedule, it's enough to keep you scrolling.
Cody Poteet, Miami Marlins - 2% rostered
Scheduled starts: @COL, vs SF
Among the Marlins' promising young arms, Poteet is not one of the better known pitchers on the team. He's been mostly effective as a reliever this year but his second and most recent start was ugly as he gave up five runs in three innings to Tampa. Avoid the Coors Field start and don't expect too much when he gets the Giants.
Jonathan Heasley, Kansas City Royals - 0% rostered
Scheduled starts: @CLE, vs HOU
Walking more batters than you strike out is bad. Posting a -9.5% K-BB% is beyond bad. Heasley was a strong source of Ks in the minors but he's only struck out 13 hitters in his first 28 Major League innings. Until things change in a major way, he should be ignored regardless of matchup.
Trevor Williams, New York Mets - 0% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs WAS, @LAD
When a player isn't rostered anywhere in fantasy at all, there are two main reasons:
1) He's a little-known prospect who is in the minors or just recently called up.
2) He's a veteran who has proven he's not very good anymore.
Williams obviously falls in the latter category. He actually has a solid 18.6% K-BB% in three starts this year but he's kept an ERA above 4.35 and WHIP above 1.40 each of the past three years.
Although his xERA states that he's performing well this year, the trust factor just isn't there. Plus, he hasn't pitched more than four innings in an outing this year so the same caveats apply - lack of K totals, no potential for wins, limited usefulness. Look elsewhere.
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