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We continue to move past the chaos of 2020 and onto a new baseball season full of promise. For fantasy baseball managers, draft season is already upon us.
RotoBaller's rankers, Pierre Camus, Big Pick Nick Mariano, and I have updated our 2021 Mixed League rankings as we now move on to evaluate the hot corner. If you missed them, here are the Catcher, First Base, and Second Base position analysis articles.
You can also find our other draft rankings for all sorts of league formats, continually updated throughout the preseason, right here in our main fantasy baseball Rankings Wizard tool. Also, make use of all our premium resources with our MLB Draft Kit.
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2021 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
Tier One
The first tier may have two names but don't get it twisted, José Ramírez is the man here. Over the last five seasons, his 600 PA averages are 90 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, and 23 SB - plus the guy has a career .281 BA. He is a sure-fire five-category anchor that has no rival atop the third base rankings. I don't expect any drastic changes due to Francisco Lindor's departure, as Eddie Rosario and Franmil Reyes will create plenty of run-scoring opportunities for Jo-Ram.
After a bit of a disappointing fantasy season in year one of a massive contract with the Padres, it was nice to see to Manny Machado bounce all the way back in 2020. Across 254 PA he slashed .304/.370/.580 with 16 dingers and six steals for Slam Diego. Here is a quick recap: career-high BB% paired with a career-low K%, top 10% in xBA and xSLG, more SB attempts than the full 2019 season, and in the heart of just an absolutely loaded offense. Sounds like one hell of a second-round pick.
Tier Two
Now we have reached everyone's favorite band of sluggers that sometimes if you watch ever so closely, you'll actually see all four go in succession in drafts. Once one goes, everyone else has to have one. The five-category contributors are gone, but this group represents a solid four-cat floor that quickly dissipates in follow-on tiers.
Anthony Rendon continued doing his thing in his first season with the Angels, yet the results didn't exactly live up to his lofty draft position. He hit nine homers, zero steals, and a .286 average while averaging roughly one R+RBI per game (60 in 52). I'm willing to ignore 2020 altogether for Rendon, as his batted ball profile and K% remained the same, he drew walks at a career-high rate, and he strangely hit only one bomb away from Angel Stadium. The 2019 power may never fully translate in the AL West ballparks, but a career .290 hitter getting to knock in Mike Trout over a full season is quite the safety net.
If you want the highest upside of this group, it belongs to Rafael Devers who just turned 24 despite having 1680 big league PA under his belt. It was a weird-down year for all the Red Sox to some extent and you could tell the hitters were trying to do too much possibly to make up for the Mookie Betts-shaped hole in the lineup. But with Alex Cora back and a full "normal" season on deck we expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in 2021. Based on his Statcast numbers and the awe one feels when watching his home run hits, the 32 HR from 2019 feels like it could just be the starting point for this season's projections. Sandwiched between Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, Raffy Big Scoops will once again be near the top of the league in R+RBI.
I was considered low on Nolan Arenado coming into the season, but even I have been shocked at where he is being drafted in some recent contests. After his trade to St. Louis and away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, I drafted Arenado at 52 overall in a Draft Champions draft and hold (and like I mentioned at the beginning of the tier, it was immediately after Devers and Rendon were taken). Since February 1, he owns a minimum draft position of 67 on NFBC. Obviously not playing at Coors for half his games will reduce his value slightly, there is no denying that, but for a perennial first-second round pick should that equate to dropping to the fourth round or later in a 15 team league? Go ahead and rinse 2020 from your brain, his shoulder was not right and for the sample size that should be enough to ignore. As for the quality of hitter Arenado can still be outside of Coors, in 2019 (we'll say his last healthy season), he hit 20 of his 41 HR on the road paired with a .277/.346/.521 slash.
What are we to do with Alex Bregman? Allow me to reiterate my post on Jose Altuve: Last year it was "The Astros hitters are a product of cheating, fade them in your drafts because we don't know how they will hit when they don't know what pitch is coming." Then Jose Altuve goes out and completely falls on his face and hits .219. Now that the ADP has adjusted accordingly, the same voices in the industry are now saying "Altuve is a career .311 hitter, don't fade just because of one bad season." Well, which one is it people? Was he a product of cheating or did he just coincidentally experience a very poor small sample in 2020?
Now, find and replace Altuve's name for Bregman and the feeling is the exact same. Sans-trash bins, is Bregman a .242 hitter like we saw in 2020 or is he a .283 hitter in line with his career average? The answer unfortunately despite whatever forecast and analysis you may read is NO ONE KNOWS. It is a risk to take Alex Bregman in 2021 drafts, but if he continues dropping past the top 40 the potential reward makes it worth taking.
Tier Three
If the four buy-low values in tier two were still too rich for your blood, tier three has four more third basemen that did not enjoy the 2020 sample to the benefit of 2021 drafters.
Not even Bregman experienced a BA free-fall to the extent of Eugenio Suarez last year. After hitting the second-most HR in the league with a .271 BA in 2019, Suarez fell down to just two points above the Mendoza line. But considering he had shoulder surgery in January before the season, the lack of a true build-up, and the small sample just toss him in with Nolan Arenado into the 2020 stats shredder. The promising news is the Statcast numbers were all almost identical to 2019 and he even increased his hard hit rate. The .214 BABIP, a stat that had been fairly consistent for Suarez was literally 90 points below his previous career-low. Now more than a year removed from the shoulder procedure, I expect the line drives to come back which will lift the BA towards his .261 career average accompanied with plenty of GABP power.
After a long-awaited breakout in 2019, Yoan Moncada botched the encore performance in 2020. He did contract COVID-19 and we really don't know the effects of the virus from an athletic standpoint nor how long they last but it was all just very ugly. His hard hit rate dropped 15 points, his exit velocity fell five points, and his xBA and K% were both in the bottom 10% of the league. Along with the loss in pop, the flyballs actually increased, 18% of which never left the infield (third-worst in the league). He went from hitting .267 against breaking pitches and .327 against off-speed in 2019 to .164 and .111, respectively.
The 25-year-old also failed to even attempt a stolen base in 2020. Despite the uber-prospect pedigree and 2019's 25/10 and .315 season, the accompanied .406 BABIP is unlikely to ever be replicated and the zero stolen base attempts is worrisome for someone who needs the SB cushion for fantasy value. The good news is he'll get to try and figure it all out in one of the top offenses in the league.
Probably the most popular "wait on third base approach" pick is Matt Chapman, who hit 10 bombs in just 39 games before his 2020 season ended prematurely with hip surgery. Despite the small sample and injury, Chapman was a true Statcast darling ranking in the top five percent in EV, Barrel%, and Hard Hit%. The contact decreased and the strikeout rate sky-rocketed, but I think the "small" power-sell out is going to produce some hefty HR totals in 2021.
Of the small handful of players with a flyball percentage over 50, only Mike Trout had a higher line drive percentage than Chapman, aka he is tearing the cover off the ball and keeping it off the ground at an elite rate. I'm excited to see if this approach carries over post-hip surgery, and I will gladly find BA elsewhere if it means getting my dark-horse pick to lead the league in HR.
The last buy-low tier four third baseman is the one that is probably the toughest to watch drop in drafts after how high the fantasy expectations rose over his early years. He played just 34 games in 2020, battling back and wrist injuries, and hit just four HR and .206. He also knocked in just 11 RBI, which stands out initially because it is Kevin Newman-level low, but also when you see he only knocked in 77 in a full 2019 season it appears it might be a trend you don't want for your starting fantasy third baseman. Overall RBI is not something you worry yourself with too much while projecting, but it is just one aspect of the risk carried by Kris Bryant in fantasy.
Tier Four
Absolutely nothing safe about tier four, and it starts with the Bringer of Rain. Josh Donaldson put an injury-riddled 2018 behind him with a strong resurgence in Hotlanta in 2019. In the off-season of 2020, he signs a fat contract with the Minnesota Twins and everyone gets sucked in because of the offense and his career splits at Target Field. But of course, that 35-year-old calf flared up again and he was limited to just 102 PA. When healthy the BB% was a career-high, the K% was identical to his 2019 mark, and his .247 ISO showed he's still got plenty to offer fantasy owners if his calf allows. Good luck finding a more powerful trio in a lineup than JD, Nelson Cruz, and Miguel Sano.
Austin Riley doesn't have significant injury risk, but there is risk that he injures your fantasy team's batting average. Luckily he took a step forward in that department in 2020. He increased his walk rate by two points, and cut his strikeouts by a massive 13%. The more conservative approach which saw fewer swings and more contact also greatly reduced the flyballs. So while I don't think we can pencil in 30 HR like most thought after his rookie 2019 season, Riley can still be a big late-round RBI boost hitting seventh in a loaded Braves lineup.
We've seen injury risk, BA risk, and now we have playing time risk with the Padres new slugger Ha-Seong Kim. For those that don't know yet, Kim is 25 years old infielder who hit .307 with 30 HR and 23 SB in KBO last year. Exactly how that will translate over to the MLB is anybody's guess, but I'm more concerned with how stacked the Padres offense is that a signing with this much potential isn't even projected to be a starter. In the KBO Kim had appearances at 1B, 2B, 3B, and lots of SS.
Obviously, with the amount of money the Padres have invested into Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, and now Fernando Tatis Jr, Kim's best shot at playing time would be platooning with Jake Cronenworth. But wait there's more.... Jurickson Profar also re-signed with San Diego this off-season and he too is an experienced second baseman. If you are in a weekly league just know Kim will be on your bench until an injury occurs. Daily roster move league teams fire away, maybe you strike gold.
Tier Five
David Fletcher did exactly what we expected him to do in 2020 - score runs (31) and hit for a high BA (.319). The 26-year-old utilityman now has 1190 PA under his belt and has amassed just 10 HR and 12 SB along the way, but the .292 BA is fun. He should be leading off for the Halos again this year, which honestly means Fletcher could be top five in the league in runs scored. He doesn't strike out, his sprint speed is decent, and he's eligible at three infield positions. Two elite categories with multi-position eligibility after pick 200, you won't be excited but you won't be let down either.
If Fletcher isn't enough “boring-yet-solid” to satisfy you, well then here comes BrIan Anderson. That's not completely true, he did hit 11 bombs in 59 games last season. But the expected stats were much lower than 2019 when he hit just 20 HR with a .261 BA. His biggest asset in fantasy is hitting in the heart of the Marlins lineup, which at the least should produce valuable RBI.
Now we've reached the peak of "boring-yet-solid", the ever-consistent Justin Turner. His track record definitely deserves to be placed a tier higher, but at the time of the latest rankings update he was still a free agent. But now we know he's heading back to the defending world champs for his eighth straight season and will look to build upon a sneaky-good 2020 campaign that saw an xBA and xSLG in the top seven percent of the league with a career-high barrel%. The 36-year-old vet should slide right back into the three-hole in the Dodgers lineup and provide solid four-category production which makes him an excellent (and my favorite) CI option for 2021.
Tier Six
Despite falling into the shadow of his World Series MVP brother, Kyle Seager quietly had quite the 2020 season hitting nine homers with five steals for the Mariners. Despite only a 60 game sample, the five SB were Seager's most since 2015. Like Turner, he experienced a career-high barrel% but even more impressive was his personal best 0.97 BB/K ratio. Unfortunately, the BABIP dropped for the fourth straight year so the BA continues to be a drag but at his cost, there is little risk to see if the line drive rate can get back to his career average while keeping up this new-found plate discipline. By season's end, the Mariners could be an offense you wish you had a piece of in fantasy, and their veteran clean-up hitter is a cheap exposure piece.
Speaking of cheap cleanup hitters, Jeimer Candelario will get as much playing time as he can handle for the Tigers. If 2020's sample can qualify as such, the 27-year-old switch-hitter had a breakout season hitting .297/.369/.503 with a modest seven dongs. He enjoyed increases in barrel%, EV, and hard hit rate while boasting a career-high 25.9 line drive percentage. He will hit for a higher BA than what the projections systems forecast, and while hitting behind Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera doesn't have the allure it once had, Candelario should have no trouble returning value at his current 331 ADP.
A third baseman who might have trouble returning value is J.D. Davis. He failed to replicate his promising 2019 season and hit just .247 and six HR across 229 PA in 2020. While the Mets ended up not getting a free agent third baseman this off-season, they did gain speedy utilityman Jonathan Villar while losing the DH. Villar does not have much experience at third base but Jeff McNeil certainly does. PA is a tough category to predict in general, but especially for some of the Mets hitters this season. If J.D. Davis fails to reach 500+ PA he would have to really produce to be worth a spot over the likes of Brian Anderson or Kyle Seager, whom he is being drafted ahead of currently.
Tiers Seven & Eight
Edwin Rios was a popular name earlier this draft season when Justin Turner was dangling in free agency, and that really spiked for the short period after they spent big money on Trevor Bauer. But alas, Turner was meant to be with the Dodgers and Edwin Rios will return to a valuable bench piece in LA. If he can carve his way into some serious playing time we could see some very impressive power numbers as he hit eight HR with an eye-popping .395 ISO in his 83 PA sample from 2020 while drastically cutting down on the strikeouts from his first taste of the big leagues.
Another popular deep sleeper name for 2021 is Ty France. After being obviously buried on the Padres roster he was freed in 2020 after being traded to the Mariners. The 26-year-old doesn't do much in the power or speed departments but he can flat out hit. Across 348 PA in Triple-A in 2019 he hit an absurd .399, and followed that up with a .305 BA across 155 big league PA last year. Since the American League makes sense and has the DH there should be plenty of PA to go around in SEA and France should prove to be a rare, very late BA boost in your drafts.
And then there’s Carter Kieboom, who unlike Rios has been gifted a starting role at the hot corner for the Nationals. The results were extremely ugly in 2020 as he failed to hit a homer or steal a base in 122 PA, but he did manage a 13.9 BB%. He hit .303 with 16 HR in Triple-A in 2019, so there is a decent hit tool in there somewhere. Let's just hope he starts showing it rather quickly so we don't get Josh Harrison in a starting lineup in 2021.
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