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Jon Anderson's Outfield Tiered Rankings and Projections

ronald acuna fantasy baseball rankings MLB Injury news DFS lineup picks

I continue to press forward on my own personal rankings series. Today we tackle the beast that is the outfield. Check out the rest of the series at the links below if you haven't already!

First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base

Starting at the top, here's that juicy tier one full of first-round talent.

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Tier 1

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1 1.6 683 117 41 101 28 .282
Juan Soto 2 4.1 651 110 39 115 12 .304
Mike Trout 3 6.1 671 106 41 106 10 .280
Mookie Betts 4 3.4 685 92 34 92 20 .275

These are names that will routinely go in the top five of drafts. How you order them has a lot to do with league settings and personal preference. I prefer to lock down steals and batting average early, which puts Betts a step behind the pack since he isn't super-elite in either of those categories. But look, you can't go wrong here - you're getting elite production as long these names stay healthy.

Favorite: Acuna

 

Tier 2

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Christian Yelich 5 11.7 670 103 34 96 18 .274
Cody Bellinger 6 15.6 642 102 41 114 12 .280
Bryce Harper 7 20.3 663 101 36 99 13 .248

The upside with these three is not a far step down from tier one, especially in the case of Yelich who was right there with the tier one names before his down 2020 season. You're probably giving up some batting average upside with Bellinger and Harper, and none of these three are likely to steal 20 bags (although all of them are more than capable of doing so). If you're the type to completely ignore 2020, Yelich is your best bet here, and getting him in the second round probably makes you very excited. That's more or less the boat I'm in here. It's also important to note that Harper is a significant gainer in an OBP format with his high walk rate.

Favorite: Yelich

 

Tier 3

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
George Springer 8 53.3 668 107 34 87 7 .271
Marcell Ozuna 9 47.6 647 91 35 105 5 .276
Eloy Jimenez 10 36.2 632 90 39 107 1 .289
Luis Robert 11 35.8 610 78 29 85 22 .259
Kyle Tucker 12 31.2 618 85 30 92 20 .258
Aaron Judge 13 57.5 609 98 36 89 6 .251
Michael Conforto 14 74.7 648 91 31 92 7 .253

This is the first significant step down in a tier. There are lots of steals and power upside here, but no real five-category threats. The highest upside names are Robert and Tucker with their ability to steal bases, but they are also the most likely busts from this group. The safest bets in my eyes are Springer, Ozuna, and Conforto as they all have pretty strong track records and are prominently displayed in some of the game's best lineups. Those three are probably my favorite in this group, and I find myself more and more taking my first outfielder from this group of guys.

Favorite: Springer
Too Cheap
: Conforto
Too Expensive: Tucker
Upside: Robert
Biggest Risk: Judge

 

Tier 4

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Starling Marte 15 50.1 646 78 19 78 23 .273
Trent Grisham 16 63.4 632 92 24 75 15 .253
Nick Castellanos 17 84.7 651 88 29 89 3 .255
Charlie Blackmon 18 90.1 609 85 25 81 6 .285

Another pretty steep drop-off takes towards the land of specialists. Marte is the last decent five-category bet, but he's never really gone over the top in any category and his upside seems limited with that Marlins lineup around him. Blackmon's price is cheaper than ever, making him a pretty interesting guy to grab as your second or third outfielder, but you're probably not going to get the same run and power production as you have in the past. All-in-all, this is a boring, but productive tier.

Favorite: Castellanos
Too Cheap
: Blackmon
Too Expensive: Grisham 
Upside: Castellanos
Biggest Risk: Grisham

 

Tier 5

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Teoscar Hernandez 19 73.2 594 78 30 87 9 .239
Max Kepler 20 185.1 654 96 30 82 7 .248
Joey Gallo 21 164.5 634 85 40 96 6 .212
Austin Meadows 22 94.9 522 70 22 65 11 .252
Jeff McNeil 23 90.0 665 89 19 75 8 .284
Anthony Santander 24 158.5 639 82 30 90 5 .262
Eddie Rosario 25 114.1 574 72 28 88 5 .275

McNeil and Rosario are the only hopes of good batting average here, as there are lots of high strikeout rates and low walk rates here. Gallo is the most interesting name after his price has completely bottomed out after his brutal 2020 season, but getting a guy with 40 projected homers way down at pick 165 is pretty interesting, especially for an OBP league.

I really like the upside of Hernandez and Kepler, and Meadows feels too cheap after his injury-riddled 2020 season. This isn't a very far step down from the previous tier, so it makes sense to wait a bit in the draft and grab one of these names to add to your outfield.

Favorite: Kepler (just way too cheap)
Too Cheap
: Kepler / Meadows
Too Expensive: Hernandez
Upside: Hernandez
Biggest Risk: Gallo

 

Tier 6

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Ian Happ 26 163.1 594 83 27 75 9 .241
Andrew McCutchen 27 198.4 636 91 26 72 9 .246
Randy Arozarena 28 57.7 614 78 24 77 20 .257
Byron Buxton 29 115.4 531 73 25 77 18 .261
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 30 84.4 577 75 27 86 8 .269
Wil Myers 31 129.6 598 76 26 79 13 .236
Mike Yastrzemski 32 137.9 664 86 22 74 8 .245
Ramon Laureano 33 142.7 621 76 22 75 11 .248
Tommy Pham 34 126.6 548 79 21 70 14 .267
Kyle Schwarber 35 193.6 516 78 33 83 4 .247
Michael Brantley 36 155.1 606 77 19 82 5 .283
Ryan Mountcastle 37 149.7 578 70 26 82 3 .276
Dominic Smith 38 106.2 552 68 22 74 3 .252
Dylan Carlson 39 149.2 526 62 17 63 11 .250
Jesse Winker 40 210.1 469 64 19 61 3 .272

It gets pretty tough to rank at this point, as there are just so many outfielders out there all doing different things. The stand-outs here are Arozarena, who the projections and myself believe to be the most overvalued player in drafts this year. Pham and Schwarber also feel pretty cheap here, and there's some big-time upside with guys like Buxton, Mountcastle, Smith, and Carlson.

Favorite: Laureano
Too Cheap
: Schwarber / Laureano
Too Expensive: Arozarena
Upside: Buxton / Aronzarena
Biggest Risk: Gurriel

 

Tier 7

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Garrett Hampson 41 265.2 228 26 4 23 9 .253
Jarred Kelenic 42 217.6 309 34 10 35 7 .238
Nick Senzel 43 277.7 455 56 14 50 13 .249
Trey Mancini 44 182.6 546 71 24 73 2 .262
Raimel Tapia 45 261.2 557 65 10 56 14 .276
AJ Pollock 46 201.7 545 71 26 77 7 .247
Victor Robles 47 158.6 594 73 17 68 21 .249
Mitch Haniger 48 275.6 607 79 25 70 7 .241
Alex Verdugo 49 127.8 588 79 16 70 7 .293
Aaron Hicks 50 280.7 611 83 24 76 8 .236

Playing time questions come up here, but there's plenty of upside to be had. Hampson could be a 30 steal guy, Senzel could turn it around and fulfill some of that prospect promise, and who knows maybe Haniger will get back to doing what he was doing before the disastrous two years he's had with injuries.

Favorite: Mancini
Too Cheap
: Mancini
Too Expensive: Robles
Upside: Senzel / Hampson
Biggest Risk: Haniger / Robles 

 

Tier 8

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Randal Grichuk 51 200.5 382 50 20 58 2 .245
Jurickson Profar 52 225.6 374 46 13 46 7 .246
Jon Berti 53 260.2 417 47 7 36 17 .244
Alex Kirilloff 54 271.4 420 52 13 53 6 .275
Manuel Margot 55 260.9 425 48 10 45 18 .251
Mauricio Dubon 56 283.5 447 50 11 51 9 .269
David Peralta 57 274.2 566 68 19 73 2 .270
Leody Taveras 58 201.7 541 63 12 49 20 .247
Victor Reyes 59 198.2 562 66 11 54 17 .273
Austin Hays 60 227.1 528 64 22 66 11 .255
Mark Canha 61 265.9 594 74 22 75 4 .245
Kole Calhoun 62 258.3 600 75 24 74 4 .232
Bryan Reynolds 63 291.9 603 73 18 70 6 .265
Clint Frazier 64 184.8 565 72 24 77 6 .246
Hunter Dozier 65 235.1 622 74 20 77 5 .245
Kyle Lewis 66 131.4 650 72 23 76 6 .232
Lorenzo Cain 67 247.7 614 75 13 57 16 .259
Andrew Benintendi 68 230.0 580 78 15 64 12 .259
Brandon Nimmo 69 257.1 623 86 18 63 9 .240

This is basically just "the rest." You're going to go here for a bench guy and you'll probably be looking for some specific category while you're after it. There's steals upside here (Berti, Margot, Taveras), along with some raw power (Grichuk, Kiriloff, Frazier), and a handful of boring but safe plays as well (Peralta, Canha, Cain). There are also a couple guys that really shoot up the rankings in OBP leagues (Canha and Nimmo). So this is a pretty diverse group of players, all with good chances of being fantasy-relevant, and they need to be rostered in five-outfielder leagues.

Favorite: Canha
Too Cheap
: Taveras (late steals, he should at least get a shot at being the lead-off hitter)
Too Expensive: Reyes
Upside: Frazier
Biggest Risk: Kiriloff

Those are the ranks, thanks for reading!



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